Maybe Russia will suffer internal unrest and leave Russian-occupied Donbas. Russian poverty is rising, after all:
The number of Russians living in poverty reached nearly 20 million last year -- a decade high -- after sanctions over Ukraine and an oil crisis battered the economy, official figures showed Wednesday.
Or maybe Russia will resume their war when they feel like it and complete the conquest of the Donbas region to supplement their conquest of Crimea.
Ukraine is eating away at Russian control of the Donbas region, but a real offensive is needed to defeat the Russians.
I know that people object that if Ukraine fights that Russia will just escalate.
I have news for people, Russia's conventional escalation potential is not unlimited.
And Russia has escalated when they wanted to; so they will again if needed.
So failure by Ukraine to wage war won't prevent Russia from escalating. It just allows Russia to escalate on their terms and for a duration that Russia can handle.
If Ukraine wants to regain their east, the Ukrainians need to wage an offensive to take ground and break the enemy resistance.
And if Ukraine worries Russia will escalate to beyond the Donbas? Well, Ukraine could make sure they have their air force and ballistic missiles able to bombard the Sevastopol naval base and ships in port; while having forces able to lay mines off of Crimea's ports while issuing a port closure order for what is legally Ukraine's territory.
