Saturday, April 01, 2017

And ... in Libya

Factions in Libya are seeking to control oil export infrastructure. Which is necessary to win a civil war, of course.

You have to pay your supporters and buy weapons:

A power struggle for control of Libya’s oil is threatening to deepen splits in the country and undermine the fragile authority of the UN-backed Libyan Government of National Accord, the GNA.

As I wrote early in the Libyan revolt, if you want to have a civil war you have to have the financial resources to back it.

The simmering civil war could get ramped up if the West doesn't get the factions to unite and focus their firepower on surviving jihadis so they don't rebuild and not on each other.

Responsibility to Protect in Libya was implemented as a drive-by shooting of Khadaffi without any real effort to help one faction win.

However much Khadaffi deserved that end, 6 years after the start of that war, not much is better and in some ways Libya is much worse as nobody has won the sputtering civil war that may yet go full bore.

UPDATE: So far it is more flying elbows rather than sustained civil war:

East Libyan forces said on Wednesday they had carried out air strikes and a ground attack on an air base controlled by rivals from the western city of Misrata, prompting a pledge of retaliation from the government in Tripoli.

Tamanhent air base, near the city of Sabha, is on a frontline between loose armed alliances based in eastern and western Libya that have been vying for power in an on-off conflict since 2014.

That can change.

Russia loves chaos to insert themselves in as a reliable partner willing to do what it takes to win.