Wednesday, December 30, 2015

The Enemy of My Enemy

I've meant to comment on Turkey restoring relations with Israel. So much happening in the world, so little time, and all. Strategypage lifts the burden of analyzing this reversal of recent Turkish policy:

Suddenly Turkey is an enemy and allied with Israel. This is not good for Iran. The war in Syria, in particular the recent Russian intervention was very unpopular in Turkey. This was good for Israel because Turkey, long a foe of Russia was not happy with Russian troops fighting right on the Turkish border, Thus by December 2015 the Turks were discussing the resumption of diplomatic relations with Israel. Since 2002 the Islamic government of Turkey has been battling Turkish secularists and trying to improve relations with other Islamic countries (including ancient rival Iran). This new policy meant adopting an anti-Israel attitude after decades of close relations with the Jewish state.

It's nice to see some sanity being restored in the region. Although I don't think that alliance with Israel will help Turkey with the nuclear angle that Strategypage raises.

After experiencing Turkish Islamist-based hostility, are the Israelis really going to back Turkey to the nuclear hilt in a confrontation with a nuclear-armed Iran? Perhaps if Turkey had been a stalwart friend all this time, Israel would risk that. Perhaps.

But not now. So Turkey will need their own nuclear weapons to deter a nuclear Iran. (The year isn't even over, yet who still believes that the nuclear deal with Iran will prevent them from getting nuclear weapons or turn them into a responsible regional power?)

Oh, and Turkey might think that their own nukes would be a useful deterrent against a nuclear Russia getting aggressive in their neighborhood, too.