Monday, June 18, 2012

Where Will This Struggle Be Fought?

The Egyptian military, likely anticipating an Islamist win for the presidency, had their judges nullify parliament and (if I understand this correctly) the body that will draft the new constitution that will define the powers of the new president. The military won't stop the winner from assuming office:

In a Monday report, it quoted Maj. Gen. Mohammed al-Assar as saying the transfer of power will take place in a "grand ceremony." He gave no exact date.

The winner of the presidential runoff held this weekend will be officially announced on Thursday. The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's most powerful political group, claimed early Monday that its candidate, Mohammed Morsi, had defeated Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister.

Will the new president and the people of Egypt allow the military to rig the rules to make the president harmless?

Or will the people of Egypt renew street protests? Clearly, the military and their backers hope that the fervor has dissipated and people just want stability.

Perhaps the military has spent time working on the morale of the line police and enlisted soldiers so they can hold fast in the face of a new people's peaceful uprising.

Would the opposition escalate if that unfolds?

There is a great risk that the new president can call for Islamist solutions to Egypt's problems while the military remains responsible for what happens to the economy and stability.

Long-term, it is better to let the Islamists get the responsibility for outcomes so they get blamed for poverty and chaos rather than being allowed to provoke chaos and claim they can save Egypt from the old guard.

The Arab Spring continues in Egypt. The result remains in doubt.

UPDATE: It looks like the struggle must be fought on the streets if this claim is true:

A campaign spokesman for Hosni Mubarak's ex-prime minister said Tuesday that Ahmed Shafiq has won Egypt's presidential election, countering the Muslim Brotherhood's claims that its candidate was the winner and setting the stage for a divisive fight for the leadership.

If the military has engineered a win for their side in all levers of formal governing power, an Arab Spring far more like Libya and Syria than Tunisia is the only way to overthrow the entrenched elites.

Can the opposition rally supporters into the streets again?

Are government employees committed to defending their position that depends on the military winning?

Has the military solidified its standing with foot soldiers (and riot police)?

Has the military gained (by bribe or threat) other actors who opposed Mubarak last year?