Friday, June 15, 2012

Setting the WABAC Machine

Egypt's elites are hoping that the street fervor that led to the fall of Mubarak and the election of an Islamist-friendly parliament has waned enough to hope the Arab Spring in Egypt can be undone by the stroke of a pen:

Egypt's highest court declared the parliament invalid Thursday, and the country's interim military rulers promptly declared full legislative authority, triggering fresh chaos and confusion about the country's leadership.

The Supreme Constitutional Court found that all articles making up the law that regulated parliamentary elections are invalid, said Showee Elsayed, a constitutional lawyer.

The ruling means that parliament must be dissolved, state TV reported.

This isn't good.

I wasn't happy that Egyptians elected a parliament of people friendly to Islamists. But I keep saying that the key to success is to make sure there is a new election that allows the people to review how their parliament did. The people of Gaza would not reelect Hamas if there was another election based on how Hamas governed. Which is why Hamas won't allow another election. Setting regular and reasonably free elections will give people a chance to reflect and change their mind if raising their family seems more important than destroying Israel or reviving the caliphate or whatever else seems ordained by Allah at the moment.

We should not hope for the restoration of the old crew. All this will do is radicalize Islamist-friendly people who were already retreating from their initial boasts that they would cancel the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. With responsibility looming, that ride didn't look as fun as it did from afar.

But now, the Islamists may have to return to the streets. They may be joined by other anti-Mubarak forces who first marched to bring the Arab Spring to Egypt. Conscript troops will face terrible temptation to side with Islamists rather than obey their officers who are the only members of the military in on the old elite's gravy train.

And then the opposition will get radicalized. Even if the military-led counter-coup wins this round, the opposition will radicalize and require a lot of blood and prison to suppress over many years.