Thursday, June 14, 2012

It is Complicated

While I may have serious doubts about the competency and commitment of the Obama administration in foreign affairs, I'll never claim that their job isn't anything but very complicated.

For example, I think it is a no-brainer that we should help defeat the Assad regime in Syria. Who follows isn't as important as getting rid of a persistent enemy who has killed Americans in large numbers over the years.

Yet with Russia backing Assad, we have to wonder what Russia under that paranoid piece of work, Putin, might do to retaliate if we start to seriously go after Assad. This is relevant:

The United States is withdrawing its team of negotiators from Pakistan without securing a long-sought agreement to allow trucks to supply NATO forces in neighboring Afghanistan again, the Pentagon said on Monday.

Remember that without ground lines of communication through Pakistan, we rely on the northern route that ultimately relies on Russian rail lines. Would Russia use the next two years of our withdrawal to essentially hold our forces in Afghanistan hostage?

I don't know. I also don't know if I want to risk that. Having so many troops in Afghanistan has long been a nightmare of mine.

Sure, we are complaining that Russia is sending helicopters capable of ground attack to Assad, but would we be willing to enforce a UN arms embargo by "quarantining" Syria's ports and risking a Syrian Chopper Crisis? What might Russia do if Moscow decides to make this concern over where our relations could go come true?

Experts are increasingly concerned that Syria is becoming the theater for a proxy war between the United States and its Arab allies, and Russia and Iran.

I suppose it is too late to cut that Gordian Knot to solve this issue.

Even super geniuses would have tough calls to make given the world we live in and all the inter-connected threads of our foreign policy.

But we'd do better if we'd stop believing that hope and change have any value in the real world of paranoids and thugs.