General Allen is pushing for a quicker transition to an Afghan lead in fighting. For this he is the White House's favorite commander. I hope that isn't something that damns Allen's reputation.
I worry that our offensive in the east may be too small and too short. The article only mentions a single brigade's pending offensive and says it will end by the end of September:
[One] of Allen’s subordinate generals said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “This is the last real glass-breaker where we exert our will. But then it’ll be up to the Afghans.”
I hope that is not the correct impression for our entire strategy in Regional Command East.
One author who wrote a good book on the Vietnamization of that war under General Abrams says that Allen has it tougher because the South Vietnamese army is much better than the Afghan military and police. This is true, but the Afghans don't face a mechanized Taliban army across the border--which is ultimately what doomed the South Vietnamese after our Congress cut off all military aid and banned air support. I hope that a strategy that relies on us continuing to help the Afghans can count on continued levels of support necessary to do that.
I hope that we don't inflate the Taliban into such a fearsome force that we use that as an excuse to cut off all aid and wash our hands of that long war.
I hope we realize that the Taliban are not better than our Afghans. The Taliban are divided, too:
In an exclusive and rare interview by a member of the so-called Quetta Shura, Motasim told The Associated Press Sunday that a majority of Taliban wants a peace settlement and that there are only "a few" hard-liners in the movement.
And I hope we realize that as fighters, we--and that includes many Afghan forces--outclass the Taliban and their only hope of winning is to wait for us to leave and then hope that we won't support the Afghans we trained and equipped:
The mass media is all over incidents of Afghan security forces killing NATO troops (on purpose or by accident), but the bigger story is being missed. While nearly 20 percent of NATO troop deaths of late were the result of Afghan troops or police, this is partly because NATO casualties are so low to begin with. The casualty rate among foreign troops is much lower than previous wars. This includes Vietnam, the recent fighting in Iraq and the Russians in Afghanistan during the 1980s. The Taliban are so desperate that they have relied on roadside bombs and paying large bonuses to encourage Afghan soldiers and police to attack foreign troops. But money motivated attacks are rare, most are due to the fact that Afghans are very violent to begin with and quick to anger when frustrated. ...
As bad as the Afghan soldiers and police are, when it comes to professionalism, the Taliban and drug gang gunmen are worse. These fellows are usually quickly slaughtered when they try to fight foreign troops directly. While Afghans are poor soldiers, they are not stupid, thus the resort to roadside bombs, suicide bombs and rewards for killing foreigners. ...
Because of all these woes, the Taliban and drug gangs are depending even more on the departure of foreign troops in two years. That will take off a lot of pressure, and make it easier to bribe and intimidate Afghan security forces. While the Afghan soldiers and police are easier to kill, this is becoming more difficult. The Afghan soldiers, in particular, are becoming more professional and more expensive to bribe. Worse, the presence of foreign military advisors means that when an Afghan officer is bought, he often doesn't stay bought. This is a tragic problem that gets little media attention.
Do read it all. I hope we aren't in a panic because we haven't beaten the enemy completely after over a decade of fighting them. Remember, the Taliban have the same issue. After over ten years of fighting us, they are in a worse position than ever. They know that they can't beat us now and hope that they can beat our friends when we aren't out on patrol killing them.
But the Obama administration has mostly walked away from Iraq when a little more effort would have greatly increased our chances of defending a fledgling democratic system in that country. What hope do I have that the Obama administration--if it wins this fall and doesn't have to worry about another election--will stand by our Afghan friends when it is just too inconvenient to expend the effort and money?
We are winning this war. We can win this war. But we might not win this war because people who purportedly lead us are panicking and unwilling to contemplate that our enemies have more problems than we have.
Then we can simply hope that al Qaeda doesn't flow back into Afghanistan to regenerate and plot against us again.
Well, if I'm denied hope I'll always have the bitterness to cling to, I guess.
