Membership in NATO for the ex-Soviet colonies has been a sort of graduation ceremony where they had proven their commitment to democracy and rule of law. How do we explain to existing new members that our standards applied to them but not to their former slave masters who insist on the unfettered right to nuke them while sliding back into czarist authoritarianism?
NATO itself would wonder:
In deciding to pursue membership in NATO, Montenegro’s leaders are putting the country on an irreversible path to ensure its sovereignty, deepen its democracy, and provide stability fostering economic growth. NATO after all is as much a community of shared values as one of shared interests.
Unless we all share the values of paranoia, authoritarianism, and hostility toward the West, I don't see much chance of Russia being invited to join NATO.
Yet there is hope, however faint it may seem:
Many Russian military leaders are still stuck with a Cold War mentality. There is still the paranoid attitude towards the West, the efforts to dominate neighboring countries and a military alliance with China against the West. Many Russians find these retro attitudes comforting. Russian politicians find it easier to control public opinion if they can create a credible foreign enemy. A growing number of Russians do not accept this paranoid world view and are protesting that, along with corruption and government incompetence.
Of course, even if Russia becomes lucid and joins the West, the wisdom of extending NATO to the Chinese and North Korean border seems highly questionable. But for now, the question is moot.
