Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are expected to announce closer political union at a meeting of Gulf Arab leaders on Monday, a Bahraini minister said, a move dismissed by the opposition as a ruse to avoid political reform.
The decision is part of a strategy to increase integration within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as the organization's six nations fret about Iran's power in the region and the presence of al Qaeda after the Arab uprisings.
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain might initially seek closer union, local media have said, as both share a concern about discontent among Shi'ite Muslims against their ruling Sunni dynasties, and accuse Shi'ite Iran of fomenting it - a charge Iran denies.
They are linked by a causeway now, which aided the movement of GCC troops led by Saudi Arabia over a year ago.
Each will retain their UN seats. But then again, even when they were part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine and Belorussia had UN seats.
Saudi Arabia already has a Shia minority to address. What's a few more on Bahrain when Saudi Arabia has to address the issue in both places already? But now it can be argued that the Shia on Bahrain are no longer a majority being ruled by a religious minority, but just another group of the minority in a united Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
We'll see if the union is real enough to make that argument or if Bahrain will slide further within Saudi Arabia over time. I'm sure our Navy--which is based out of Bahrain--will be happy if that is how it works out. Iran will be very unhappy, no doubt.
This might be really significant should someone attack Iran's nuclear facilities and Iran wants to retaliate with a coup attempt in Bahrain.
UPDATE: It may be a causeway too far, after all:
Saudi Arabia's thrust for a Gulf Union, driven by fear of Arab Spring contagion and spreading Iranian influence, has stumbled on misgivings among smaller neighbors about a loss of sovereignty and increasing domination by Riyadh.
Gulf diplomats, officials and analysts expressed surprise that Saudi Arabia had opened itself up to such a public setback.
What I don't understand is why Saudi Arabia is tying it to the entire GCC. Only Bahrain and Saudi Arabia seem keen on the closer union. Why not focus on that narrow issue?
Of course, maybe if brought up as a Saudi-Bahrain union the issue would have generated a lot of opposition in the GCC, too. So Perhaps broaching a big union lets Saudi Arabia and Bahrain appear reasonable by scaling back plans to just the two of them.
