Saturday, May 12, 2012

Baby and Bath Water

One of the excuses that people who want to run from Afghanistan like to use recently is the uptick in "green on blue" attacks, where our Afghan allies kill Coalition troops. Those who would run like to say this means we can't trust our Afghan allies and that if they don't want to fight a common enemy, let's just get out.

But these aren't, for the most part, Taliban-inspired attacks:

“Based on the limited evidence that we have been able to collect, we believe that less than half, somewhere in the neighborhood of three to four out of every 10 [attacks] is inspired, or resourced, or planned or executed by the Taliban or Taliban sympathizers,” he said. “In other words, that it’s related to an infiltration attempt.”

Kirby said it may not even be a deliberate infiltration, but a “legitimate soldier or police officer [who] turned Taliban.”

Yet, the majority of attacks, he said, are acts of individual grievance.

“You know how seriously affairs of honor are to the Afghan people,” Kirby said. “We believe, again, that most of these [attacks] are acted out as an act of honor for most of them representing a grievance of some sort.”

I'm no mathematician, but given the numbers involved, it seems that something like 99.99% of Afghan police and troops are not shooting at our guys and are instead focused on our common enemy. Even if the attacks were Taliban operations, it would be no reason to run. Afghanistan is a violent place filled with violent people who often die young by violent means.

Obviously we need to stop or minimize this sort of thing. But the notion that it is a reason to run just plays into our enemy's hands. Focus on winning the war.

If it makes you feel better, I'm sure that the Taliban and their drug gang allies shoot it out amongst themselves a lot more. But they don't compile statistics and wring their hands in public about it. Nor do they have a faction determined to run away. They're just used to the violent lives they have.