Wait for the Crisis

The Obama administration is heaving a sigh of relief that Ma Ying-jeou won reelection in Taiwan (though with a smaller majority this time). They did not want the more independence minded candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, to win and spark a crisis with China over Taiwan's status. The Obama administration did not consider what it meant that China also supported Ma, the China-friendly candidate.

Far from preventing a crisis, Ma's reelection might just spark one if China's high expectations are not meant:

Chinese state media said Sunday that Ma's victory could offer a "new opportunity" to improve relations across the Taiwan Strait.

A Xinhua commentary said the result of the poll showed the Taiwanese people had backed peaceful development of ties with the mainland.

"The winning of Ma Ying-jeou and Kuomintang in Saturday's elections may open new chances for the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations," Xinhua said. It urged all Taiwanese to support improved ties.

"Moreover, the victory of Ma and the KMT may represent a new opportunity for the development of the cross-Strait relations," the commentary added.

Remember, China doesn't want better relations with Taiwan for any nebulous purpose of reducing cross-strait tensions. They want an option for absorbing Taiwan that doesn't involve invading Taiwan and risking war with America and Japan. What happens if "their" man Ma doesn't take concrete steps--soon--to move closer to China? What if Ma is simply naive in his belief that hope and change can keep the Dragon at bay rather than being a Manchurian Candidate who will deliver Taiwan to Peking?

Ma doesn't need to be a staunch defender of Taiwan to spark a crisis. All he has to be is unwilling to surrender as much international space as China wants him to surrender.

Who knows? Maybe only Ma can refuse to go to China.