Iran warned Gulf Arab oil producers against boosting production to offset any potential drop in Tehran's crude exports in the event of an embargo affecting its oil sales, the latest salvo in the dispute between the West and the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program.
The Saudis want to avoid direct confrontation and deny any anti-Iran motives:
With concerns building amid the standoff between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear program, a string of Asian and Western officials have visited Saudi Arabia over the past week. While offering assurances that it could meet a shortfall in supply through its spare capacity, Saudi officials have also been careful to say that it was an internal matter if nations chose to abide by any sanctions.
Unfortunately for Iran, the Gulf Arab states have options other than directly confronting Iran:
Asked if he was in favor of Arab nations intervening in Syria, Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani told the U.S. broadcaster CBS: "For such a situation to stop the killing ... some troops should go to stop the killing."
Qatar supported the Libya intervention.
And the UN is increasingly uncomfortable that Assad has failed to suppress the violence--making the UN's pretense to be a supporter of all that is good and peaceful clear to all:
"Today, I say again to President Assad of Syria: stop the violence, stop killing your people. The path of repression is a dead end," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told a conference in Lebanon on democratic transitions in the Arab world.
"From the very beginning of the ... revolutions, from Tunisia through Egypt and beyond, I called on leaders to listen to their people," Ban said. "Some did, and benefited. Others did not, and today they are reaping the whirlwind."
If a dictator can keep things quiet, that's all the sainted international community asks. And Assad has not been able to provide that quiet. Ban can't make the Russians or Chinese cooperate in the Security Council where the issue would have to be addressed to make the Qatari suggestion have teeth. But it does put pressure on Russia and China to justify their support for Syria (and for Iran, Assad's paymaster).
Iran is getting jumpy and they might make things worse by thinking they can reverse their fortunes with military action. All they'll do is give their enemies an excuse to blockade Iran (rather than sanction Iran), overthrow Assad (rather than just put road blocks in the way of Syria and Iran as they try to suppress the opposition), and destroy Iran's nuclear program (rather than just slowing it down).
Iran is generally cautious. But continued pressure and a belief that ultimately Allah will save them could push them to an irrational response to economic problems and the thought of losing their Syrian base. Lose the economic battle and the people might rise up. Lose Syria and their entire foreign policy of attacking Israel from Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza could collapse. That's a lot to lose and Iran might take risks to retain their pre-crisis edge--or might not recognize that their decisions are risky, of course.
We need to keep our powder dry and take advantage of any opportunity that Iran gives us to really harm their mullah regime. Iran is taking longer to go nuclear than I feared, but if they get over eager anticipating their pending nuclear salvation, they could yet lash out and provide us with a casus beli.
