Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Trying to Take Tbilisi

The Russians deny involvement with this revolt in Georgia, but I'd be shocked if they aren't:

Georgia sent tanks to put down a rebellion at a military base near the capital Tbilisi on Tuesday and the government accused Russia of financing a coup, a charge Moscow denied.

President Mikheil Saakashvili called the rebellion a "serious threat" but said the mutineers were isolated.

About 45 minutes later, Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili told Reuters by telephone from the Mukhrovani tank base that the rebellion was over and the base commander had been arrested.

Saakashvili accused the plotters of links to Moscow and demanded that Russia "refrain from provocations." Georgia lost a brief war against neighboring Russia last August over the rebel regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Russia's envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said Saakashvili, who is facing growing opposition protests demanding his resignation, was trying to blame Moscow for his own domestic problems.


The Russians may also be upset at NATO's pending military maneuvers with Georgia, hoping to force its cancellation. And Russia's additional troops in Abhazia makes the timing of the small revolt suspicious.

Still, no smoking Russian gun. Yet.

Perhaps the local commander didn't want to participate in rumored operations to dislodge protesters in Tbilisi. This doesn't excuse a revolt under the circumstances, but it is a danger sign over using force against protesters.

The Georgians should just let the protesters wear out their welcome with the general public rather than risk provoking sympathy with a violent crack down.

In addition, using even minimal force would just risk giving the Russians a pretext (because the Russians might engineer bloodshed or just lie) to use their nearby troops to "rescue" the protesters.

UPDATE: The Georgian authorities seem to be violating my sage advice, with a small-scale crackdown:

Opposition supporters said dozens were injured and hospitalized. Deputy Interior Minister Eka Zguladze said 22 protesters, six police officers and a journalist were injured, and none of the injuries was life-threatening.

The clash fueled tensions just as public interest in the protest had been waning; some analysts say the government's display of brute force may provide the spark that could transform low-key demonstrations into a more widespread rebellion.

In any event, the television pictures of bloodied protesters were likely to increase the prospect of more violent showdowns to come.


Even a small incident can be blown out of proportion. Plus, although the government quickly released the three protesters arrested, the damage is done. Why arrest anyone just to release them? Better to have left them alone, hopefully annoying the public more and more by their presence in the city.

The government needs to suck it up and go on with governing, appearing reasonable at every turn as long as the protesters stay peaceful.

If there is to be violence, it must be started by the protesters.