I stand by my assessment that Israel screwed the pooch on this one. Hizbollah survived the war more or less intact though hurt, and so can rebuild. We provided Israel with four weeks and they dithered. Major Sunni Arab states backed Israel and Israel failed to focus on Hizbollah, losing that support. The damage Israel inflicted on Lebanon's infrastructure achieved nothing and may have made winning the post-war more difficult. Don't mistake the feelings of inferiority that are reappearing in the Arab world as a sign of Israeli victory--those feelings are the default mode given the backwardness of the Moslem world.
But if the damage done to Lebanon prevents Lebanon from really cracking down on Hizbollah, in a few years Hizbollah will learn from the fight, rearm, and be back at it in another round of fighting.
We'll just see if Israel learned more. And there will be another round, I dare say.
Israel launched shallow frontal ground attacks on Hizbollah light infantry that played to their enemies strengths and hoped air power could stop the rocket attacks on their cities by knocking out the launch sites and pressuring Lebanon into stopping the Palestinians. Both ideas failed. Over 4,000 rockets fell on northern Israel.
I argued that Israel needed to go in decisively with ground forces early to get into a war of maneuver that would bypass Hizbollah defenses to get behind them. Do that and the Hizbollah infantry would break more easily.
Israel has had two years to train their infantry again. And time to adjust their air power doctrine.
So the next round will not be kind to Hizbollah:
Israel is prepared to use anti-missile missiles against some 300 long range missiles (supplied by Iran via Syria). In 2006, Hizbollah fired some 200 long range missiles. Next time, Israel expects about 5,000 short range (6-20 kilometers) missiles, and will take those out with ground forces, using new equipment and tactics.
The only question is whether Hizbollah thinks they are ready this summer for another go at the Jews.
