Syria's ruling elite has four interests (in descending order of importance): self-preservation; sabotaging the UN investigation into Damascus's role in political murders in Lebanon; a Syrian return to Lebanon in a form that enables the elite to restore and expand its business interests, and recovering the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967.
Except for the Golan's return, none of Assad's goals merit French or international support. Why should anybody else help prolong the life of a regime that may not be the choice of the Syrian people? What interest would France have in derailing the inquiry into the murder of Lebanese leaders, including ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, to save Assad and other senior Syrian leaders from ending up in front of the International Criminal Court at the Hague? Nor would a return of the Syrian domination of Lebanon serve any French or European interest.
Once the Syrian first couple returns home after a Paris shopping spree, the real question will remain: Is the Ba'athist elite prepared for a strategic switch from alliance with the mullahs to one of partnership with the Western democracies? We might know the answer after Assad visits Tehran to brief his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the talks with Sarkozy.
In theory, I'm ok with Syria "flipping" if that is what they do. I want to end state support of terrorism and I'm fine in the short run with destroying, converting, befriending, or just scaring any regime into not supporting terrorists who try to kill us and helping us track them down.
In the long run, I'd still want justice for any country who was against us in the past; but I can wait for the short-term benefit of prying another piece of the terror puzzle out of the picture.
Gook luck on the Syria project. They all start so hopefully. But I have serious doubts about Syria's intentions to switch sides.
