I've just been speculating that we will try a new type of Lexington Campaign inside Pakistan:
If we can't get Islamabad to control the frontier area, it is time to bypass Islamabad and deal directly with the tribes who don't recognize the control of Islamabad in the first place. We cannot allow the fictions of sovereignty to keep us from defending ourselves from fanatics who straddle the gray boundary that lies between reality and international law.
Using limited military assets such as special forces and drones to back civilian armed assets such as the CIA or contract personnel (with either former or seconded special forces from Western countries, or perhaps even hiring security companies to provide the personnel) or even Arab special forces that would live and work inside the frontier areas, we may be able to turn the frontier tribes against the jihadis who target us.
Shifting two or three new brigades to Afghanistanisn't enough to pacify Afghanistan. But it may be enough to interdict the borders to support such a new style campaign inside Pakistan.
The signs that we can in fact gain the aid of tribes inside Pakistan to wage such a new style of campaign, indicate that this is a very real possibility.
We're shifting focus all right. But any "surge" in Afghanistan next year will not look like Iraq.
