Three years ago, the focus was on the difficulties of an invasion and what the Chinese would have to do right to win. Four years ago, the report said that success depended on whether we opposed the invasion and whether China was willing to pay the various costs that defeating Taiwan would require.
Now, apparently, China can't invade Taiwan. I noted in my first two-minute scan of the document that the past assessment that China could possibly invade if they were willing to endure the cost was gone. The Washington Post explains:
The report noted that China is spending heavily to modernize its military forces, and drew attention to anti-satellite and cyberspace activities that represent potential threats to the United States, which were discussed in last week's column.
But the study also noted that U.S. intelligence agencies estimate it could take Beijing at least two more years "to produce a modern force capable of defeating a moderate-size adversary."
More important, the intelligence estimate predicted that the Asian nation "will not be able to project and sustain small military units far beyond China before 2015, and will not be able to project and sustain large forces in combat operations far from China until well into the following decade." The intelligence estimate was completed within the past year; this is the first time it has been made public.
So after 3-4 more years of Chinese force modernizaiton and Taiwanese military stagnation, China is now less capable of invading Taiwan?
One is tempted to call this yet another politicized intelligence document that downplays harder capabilites assessments in favor of soft intentions analysis that reassures us that all is well.
China fought us to a standstill in the Korean War fifty years ago and forty years ago whomped India. But China can't beat a "moderate-sized" foe for a couple years at best?
The new focus on China's limitations also simply ignores the single-minded purpose of the still "not ready" Chinese near-term military build up--Taiwan. I've always accepted that the "when" of Chinese capabilities to invade is up for debate. But the "what" should not be in doubt--China wants Taiwan and their military build up is meant to give them the option of invasion.
And just as bad, according to the Post, the report seems all too willing to excuse the Chinese naval build up as understandable. Perhaps this is so. But it doesn't make the impact on us any less troubling and threatening for us. Why pretend that even benign reasons don't have real-world implications for us should the Chinese decide to use that "understandable" navy against us?
I really must look at that report.
