Engram reminds us of this, and cites an early media report (in December 2003) of al Qaeda's decision to focus on Iraq instead of Afghanistan. That Newsweek article states:
At that meeting, according to Taliban sources, Osama bin Laden's men officially broke some bad news to emissaries from Mullah Mohammed Omar, the elusive leader of Afghanistan's ousted fundamentalist regime. Their message: Al Qaeda would be diverting a large number of fighters from the anti-U.S. insurgency in Afghanistan to Iraq. Al Qaeda also planned to reduce by half its $3 million monthly contribution to Afghan jihadi outfits.All this was on the orders of bin Laden himself, the sources said.
Al Qaeda invaded Iraq. And we've trounced them there. And they don't think they have a good chance returning to Afghanistan where they already experienced a thumping. Which is why they recently decided to try for Pakistan. Which seems to have alienated Pakistanis as the recent parliamentary election results show. And this move to Pakistan was after al Qaeda tried to establish an alternative stronghold in Somalia--which we trounced with Ethiopia taking the lead at the end of 2006.
I suppose when you don't recognize al Qaeda, it is easy to think we are failing to fight them. But that's par for the course for our "reality-based" community.