The developments increased pressure on frantic diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute, which has raised the specter of OPEC members Venezuela and Ecuador, led by leftists, going to war against US ally Colombia.
Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa, in Brazil to drum up regional support for his country, warned that Colombia must be condemned internationally for its cross-border strike against a Colombian rebel camp inside Ecuador on the weekend.
"Otherwise we will have to defend ourselves by our own means. I insist on this: Ecuador is ready to go to the ultimate consequences," he told reporters.
Venezuela, which has given full backing to Ecuador, confirmed that 10 of its army battalions -- around 6,000 men -- had been sent to the frontier and were 90 percent in place.
For such a long border (1,300 miles), that isn't much for a war. And given how quickly they've arrived, they are likely spread out widely rather than representing a massed force that could actually do something significant.
And it isn't likely that there is much anyway despite Venezuelan boasts:
Three days after Chavez ordered the deployments, Venezuela's military said it had started sending 10 tank battalions toward the border and activated its air force and navy. Military analysts estimate such a mobilization could include more than 200 tanks.
The military said the forces would be in place later on Wednesday without specifying how many would reach the border.
Reuters witnesses in several border areas saw no sign of extra forces. Nor did Venezuelan media, which have reported small-scale troop movements in recent days, show any images of a larger mobilization.
Ten tank battalions? That would be at least 300 tanks if they are full-strength small battalions. That's a laugh. Venezuela has 81 ancient French AMX-30 medium tanks and 109 light tanks--31 AMX-13 and 78 British Scorpions. Both have 75mm cannons. I suppose that this could mean 200 armored vehicles of all types. But 200 tanks? Forget it.
This weakness is why Chavez says he really doesn't want war:
Chavez said Wednesday that Colombia's "warlike government" follows U.S. dictates and that conflict of some sort with the U.S. cannot be avoided.
"While we want freedom, they want to keep us in chains. ... We want a fatherland; they want a colony. How can a confrontation be avoided? It's inevitable," he said.
The article says that Ecuador sent 3,200 troops to the border, too, and that Colombia won't be drawn into war. This time it will work, but if Chavez really is paranoid enough to believe conflict is inevitable, he may strike first against a non-existent threat.
The Colombian strike led to the recovery of FARC computers, and the captured files indicate Chavez has been supporting FARC's war to destroy the Colombian government for a decade:
Files in a laptop computer seized from the wreckage of a Colombian rebel camp in Ecuador offer new insights into Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's desire to undermine Colombia's U.S.-allied government.
If authentic, the computer files suggest Chavez has been in league with the rebels for more than a decade.
While Chavez is not one of the correspondents, his sentiments are conveyed in numerous messages exchanged by the rebels.
Venezuela contends the texts are lies and fabrications.
If so, they are expertly done.
Not only do they offer an unprecedented glimpse into the rebels' mind-set, they also reflect deepening rebel contacts with European governments and even representatives of the United States, who have tried to negotiate the release of dozens of hostages.
Yeah, Leftists in Europe and American prostrate themselves before this group, viewing them as yet another Great Left Hope for "progressive" Latin American revolution.
So there won't be a war. Maybe some border clashes. But if it comes to fighting, this type of fighting will play to Colombia's strengths. Colombia has over 200,000 troops geared for counter-insurgency. They will be good light infantry. Venezuela has better equipment and if their army could mass for a division-sized offensive in a local area, could drive off the Colombian infantry.
But if Venezuela's 63,000-strong army spreads out what they send to the border for battalion-sized forces sending out companies to cross the border, Colombia's forces will do well.
Venezuela has better air power, if it can fly, that is. The Russian stuff is so new that it may not be integrated yet and the American aircraft probably are short on spare parts. And if the Venezuelans escalate to this type of war, American aircraft will defend Colombian air space, if I had to guess.
So Chavez is exposed as supporting terrorists against a fellow Latin American state. And worse for him, that effort is failing as Colombia gains the upper hand in their decades-long war with Leftists and drug terrorists. And he responds by claiming to be the victim of aggression:
Seven years ago, Colombia was being kidnapped, murdered and blown to shreds. In the dark year 2001, rebels kidnapped over 2,500 people. Rebel groups of the left (FARC) and right (AUC, United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia) fought one another and the government. Six thousand people died in the crossfire. The Colombian Army remained, for the most part, on the strategic defensive.
The grim years of murder stripped FARC of its vestigial Marxist political veneer, revealing it as a drug army attempting to hijack a nation. Colombians turned against FARC. In 2002, Colombia began hammering out an incremental victory over FARC and other narco-gangsters. (Critics of democratic Iraq, take note.)
By 2005, the Colombian military's counterinsurgency operations and the government's tough reform programs had clearly squeezed FARC into a few hard jungle corners. FARC, however, maintained bases in Ecuador (definite evidence) and --Colombia alleged -- inside Venezuelan territory.
This week, Colombia launched a strike against a FARC base in Ecuador. Tired of terrorism, Colombia is not going to let FARC thugs hide in Ecuadorian or Venezuelan jungles. Moreover, the Colombian government now says FARC intended to attack Colombia with "dirty" (radioactive) bombs in a desperate blitz to cow the populace. Colombian president Alvaro Uribe said, "We cannot allow terrorists who seek refuge in other countries to spill the blood of our countrymen." Ecuador and its ally, Venezuela, responded by threatening Colombia with war.
Colombia argues that support for FARC by Ecuador and Venezuela means a state of quasi-war already exists.
Hugo Chavez is a despot and a threat to the region, and he may be crazy. Will he take on Colombia? We shall see if he is stupid as well.
UPDATE: Chavez will make his people pay to confront Colombia by clocking billions of dollars worth of investment and imports coming into Venezuela:
"We aren't interested in Colombian investments here," Chavez said, standing beside Correa. "Of the Colombian businesses that are here in Venezuela, we could nationalize some."
He said Venezuela will search for other countries like Ecuador, Brazil and Argentina to replace products imported from Colombia. Noting that Colombia traditional supplies food to Venezuela, he said now "we can't depend (on Colombia) not even for a grain of rice."
Well, we aren't up to smart-bomb-through-his-window levels of idiocy. But by undermining his own economy even further than he's done in normal times, Chavez is getting closer.
