Sunday, March 02, 2008

A Real Hockey Stick Graph

Our official assessment of Afghanistan political realities has the potential to fuel the never-ending assertion by the anti-Iraq War types that we are losing in Afghanistan (due to being "distracted" by Iraq, natch):

Michael McConnell, the U.S. National Intelligence Director, told a Senate committee in Washington on Wednesday that Afghanistan's central government controls just 30 percent of the country. The Taliban controls about 10 percent and local tribes control the rest, he said.


Just thirty percent controlled by the central government? Hell, that's pretty good considering what Afghanistan has usually seen:

In the U.S., intelligence officials told Congress that the Taliban has freedom of movement in about ten percent of the country. Another 30 percent is under control of the central government, and 60 percent is controlled by various local leaders. This is normal for Afghanistan, where, for centuries, the tribes picked one of their more powerful chiefs to be "king" of the country. The king had two chores; deal with the foreigners, and leave the tribes alone. Since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, the central government has expanded its control, at least by historical standards.


And the so-called "resurgent" enemy in Afghansitan is getting hammered:

The manpower shortage has caused the Taliban to abandon areas they had long maintained a presence in, particularly in Helmand province. Police there captured most of a terror cell that had been responsible for three bombings. The Taliban are also showing signs of being terrorized themselves. An example was a recent demand by Taliban around Kandahar, that cell phone companies shut down service at night. If not, the Taliban will attack cell phone towers. The Taliban believe the Americans use cell phone signals to track the Taliban at night, and guide smart bombs to where the Taliban are sleeping.


Even as victory in Iraq grows ever more solid, the deep desire of our Left to lose somewhere will probably shift focus to Afghanistan. Mark my words, Afghanistan ceases to be the "good war" for our anti-war types upset about Iraq the moment our casualties in Iraq drop below Afghanistan levels.