Attacks against U.S. troops have increased following a call earlier this month from al-Qaida in Iraq's leader to target American forces, the top U.S. military spokesman said Wednesday.
This is interesting. This is yet another change, of course, and could be an error by the enemy as I noted back in the fall:
VDH reminds me of another mistake in Iraq that the Zawahiri letter highlights:
Many of al-Zarqawi or Dr. Zawahiri’s intercepted letters and communiqués reveal paranoid fears that Iraq is indeed becoming lost — but to the terrorists. The enemy speaks of constantly shifting tactics — try beheading contractors; no, turn to slaughtering Shiites; no, butcher teachers and school kids; no, go back to try to blow up American convoys. In contrast, we are consistent in our strategy — go after jihadists, train Iraqi security forces, promote consensual government so Iraq becomes an autonomous republic free to determine its own future.
The rest of Hanson's piece is excellent, but this reminder of a basic truth of war is useful: it is better to resolutely carry out a mediocre strategy than to rapidly shift strategy looking for the perfect strategy. This is exactly what the insurgents and terrorists have done. Shifting targets before one can really judge whether that target is being seriously affected has spared each of their targets from reaching their breaking point. By constantly changing targets, the enemy has failed to put pressure on one point long enough to do real damage.
The enemy is changing strategy again. We can't be sure why. Is it because they think the inter-religious killing is sufficiently advanced to go on without jihadi help? So this renewed focus on American troops is an added pressure point?
Or is this yet another case of switching strategies before the old one could have a real impact?
Or has the enemy decided they can't spark a civil war?
And remember, one reason the enemy stopped focusing on our troops was the high cost to the enemy of encountering our troops. Whether their change is wise or foolish, we shall see how long they can keep this up. The jihadi organization in Iraq is weaker and recruits are harder to come by than a year or two ago, so I suspect that the jihadis can't afford too many casualties in their new strategy.
Meanwhile we continue with our strategy of training Iraqi soldiers and police to carry the burden of fighting the terrorists. Slowly, this strategy is working, and it will carry us to victory.
UPDATE: Strategypage notes the more direct enemy tactics.
