The Iranians keep missing those deadlines and have long ago learned that nothing much happens when they miss the most recent deadline. But Euro hope springs eternal:
French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said Wednesday that the nations leading efforts to halt Iran's uranium enrichment are working on a new deadline for Tehran to provide a more definitive response, despite differences over sanctions.
Yep, one more deadline ought to do the trick. Just have to figure out the precise wording to elicit that elusive yes from the mullahs.
You know, after refusing to take a Persian "no" for all these years, continued EU contacts are really in danger of bcoming "stalking" behavior.
So when the Europeans gather their finest minds to designate a new and improved deadline, I dare say the Iranians will yawn and proceed toward their nuclear weapons goal without much of a pause to wonder if the Euros really mean it this time.
But this might be to our advantage. We probably can't just launch a strike from the blue. We do tend to give ultimatums so the enemy has one last chance to comply. Heck, I was actually worried that Saddam might realize the danger he was facing in early 2003 and formally give in to our demands. My worry was that we'd have to pull back the troops we'd deployed while Saddam strung out his so-called surrender and in six months our troops would be back at their bases and Saddam would be in power with another diplomatic triumph to undermine our sanctions. So with the Euros tentatively getting sick of Iranian obstruction, I'd worry that Tehran would say they accept our demands just to stay our hand long enough to deflect that fleeting moment of Euro determination. But if Iran doesn't actually believe a deadline that we know we mean simply because we've issued so many deadlines, the Iranians will ignore our ultimatum and thus sign their regime's death warrant.
Unless critics from the right are correct that the Bush administration has abandoned any efforts to really stop Iran from going nuclear, these repeated deadlines will tend to dull Iranian responses.
At some point, I think even the Europeans will conclude that Iran is going nuclear and that the world cannot risk such an event. At that point, when the joint US-European deadline to halt nuclear work or else is sent to Tehran, the Iranians will yawn and put it in their inbox, noting it as a "routine" item.
Even visible military moves will be discounted by the mullahs.
Unless I'm wrong about our president's (and Blair's) determination to defend us, the look of surprise on Ahmadinejad's face when we open the regime change/air campaign will be a keeper.
