Thursday, September 14, 2006

The Great Hover Forward

China has bought six large hovercraft from Russia and will likely build more like them. The craft:

The 540-ton Zubr LCAC, the world’s largest amphibious assault hovercraft, can reach speeds in excess of 60 knots, can travel 300 nautical miles and can shoulder various large loads: 130 tons of cargo, 500 troops, three 50-ton medium battle tanks, 10 BTR-70 armored personnel vehicles or eight BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles.


Alone they are not significant. It is just a drop in the bucket. The real question may be how quickly will China build more of these? Still, it could just be a diversion. If China never builds more than a half dozen more, will those who dismiss China's invasion threat to Taiwan still be able to say China can't leap the Strait and hit Taiwan?

The key is how many other drops are there out there and do we even recognize them all?

There is no rule that says an amphibious invasion has to look like D-Day where we had lots of specialized equipment. If the beaches and ports aren't defended like Normandy, the old fashioned method of just shoving troops across the sea in whatever ships you have could work just fine.

A drop here and a drop there, and pretty soon we're talking a deluge and we never even noticed it coming.