The Sudden Sound of Crickets at Sea

Could non-kinetic weapons disable small boats? If so, would that translate to dealing with suicide USVs?

Useful for dealing with cartel drug boats: 

As the Trump administration unleashes a new strategy targeting Latin American drug cartels determined to be “narcoterrorists” with direct military action, the Pentagon is moving to buy nonkinetic weapons that can disrupt, disable, or prevent the operation of small watercraft with minimal collateral damage or potential harm to nearby civilians and boat operators.

The system should be small enough to put on "small Coast Guard boats". That's good.

But it would also useful for suicide USVs, given that "the Navy has been searching for better ways to defend against small boats that could carry IEDs since the USS Cole was attacked in 2000."

Nonkinetic weapons like that would end the Ukraine-inspired mania real fast.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Last Resort?

Is invasion really China's last resort to absorb Taiwan? Even if the generals say they are ready?

China clearly wants to own Taiwan, which increases tension in the region: 

Other factors have also contributed to growing anxiety about Taiwan’s future. Few doubt that China would try to use force to seize Taiwan militarily if it felt all other options to prevent permanent separation had been exhausted, but Beijing’s strong preference would be to take it over peacefully—with the island’s economy, technology, and human capital still intact. To achieve that goal, China is using a combination of relentless propaganda, infiltration, and military pressure to undercut U.S. support for Taiwan and to persuade Taiwan’s residents that they have little choice but to accept a political accommodation that recognizes Taiwan as part of China’s sovereign territory.

Despite the anxiety, the authors think Taiwan is secure for now.

Maybe. But while I'm sure China would like to take it over peacefully, I strongly doubt that invasion is China's last option after all other means are exhausted. I think that under-estimates China's desire for Taiwan and China's willingness to take an opportunity to use force.

And the opportunity to use force could be a complement to internal Taiwanese divisions insufficient to hand Taiwan to China cleanly but sufficient to provide the margin for victory through an invasion that doesn't look like a Western invasion. 

Did Putin exhaust all peaceful means prior to February 2022? Or did he use his shiny new military he wrongly believed was capable of solving the longstanding problem in a fortnight? 

Maybe China will conclude it doesn't have the problems of those Russian steppe barbarians. Or maybe it thinks it only has to be better than Taiwan's military. 

And China doesn't have to be right about its military capabilities to decide to go to war. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Marines on Super Carriers

The Marines are seeking ways to cope with a lack of major amphibious warfare ships. Putting Marine combat units--as opposed past usage as security for nukes--on super carriers is one idea.

Putting a Marine Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force with its Marine and aircraft on a super carrier would require reducing the carrier air wing by at least two squadrons. There was some experience in 1994:

Adm Paul David Miller, directed the 22d MEU and a CVBG to work up and deploy an "Adaptive Force Package," as an experiment. He directed us to split the MEU assets from the amphibious ships and deploy a CH-46 helicopter detachment, a rifle company (-)(rein) and a small headquarters detachment on the aircraft carrier.

That could be appropriate. But would it really be necessary to leave aircraft behind now? I thought our super carriers could carry more aircraft than they embark with during peacetime since the Cold War.

I had some related thoughts for a reduced force of Navy super carriers sometimes carrying Marines. 

And perhaps even with just a company afloat there is an option for the large Marine force as a crisis develops. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Enters the Last Act?

Are we approaching the last acts of the Winter War of 2022? Russia seems anxious to end the war before Ukraine is better armed. With Trump's frustration with Putin over ending the war evident, Russia must worry America will open up the arms spigot to end the war on another route.

The war goes on. It seems like something is looming along the front. This report on potential war outcomes notably fails to consider a collapse of Russian ground force morale in response to casualties. Which to me seems more likely than a Ukrainian collapse. But unless Ukraine has a reserve to exploit a Russian morale collapse, Russia has more ability to exploit a Ukrainian collapse.

I never believed Trump was a danger to Ukraine. I said he would find other ways to arm Ukraine. He never canceled the arms jammed into the pipeline by the outgoing Biden administration (except for one Pentagon halt--that was quickly overruled--to review assets potentially needed by the American military). And American help with intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting has continued with only one or two blips this year.

I firmly believe Trump's nice treatment of Putin was not from admiration but from the need to build some trust to achieve peace. That objective was a long shot, at best. But trying and failing does justify a change of policy.

One way for America to help Ukraine is having Europeans pay for American weapons. That is being done. Another way is having Ukraine pay. The minerals deal we finalized is one potential avenue. And this deal is another:

The primary focus of the [Ukrainian delegation] visit was to present Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems (UAS) capabilities, discuss procurement terms, and explore options for integrating them into U.S. defense operations.

America could pay with more weapons and ammunition for Ukraine, no?

Meanwhile, Russia seems worried rather than a real invasion danger. I don't see Russia's recent drone pressure (and other covert attacks) on NATO as aggressiveness as much as I see it as desperation. Would Russian leaders confident they could defeat Ukraine really risk victory by widening the war to NATO needlessly? No. They'd suck it up, defeat Ukraine, and only then look at getting back at NATO.

NATO should openly bolster defenses against drones, missiles; and quietly defeat covert Russian attacks inside Europe and increase support to Ukraine. That is the best way to punish Russia rather than shooting down a manned Russian aircraft. Russia would love that and use it to issue extreme threats to widen splits in the West for arming Ukraine.

Meanwhile at the front, this deployment of a relatively (and turn down the lights and squint) elite Russian airborne unit to the Kherson sector is interesting:

The reason for the redeployment of the 98th VDV Division is unclear. The Russian military command may be redeploying the 98th VDV Division to the Kherson direction to allow it to rest and reconstitute away from active frontline ground operations.

Huh. 

A sector of the front that is quiet and safe for rest and reconstitution? Sounds so familiar:

The Germans achieved a total surprise attack on the morning of 16 December 1944, due to a combination of Allied overconfidence based on the favorable defensive terrain and faulty intelligence about Wehrmacht intentions, poor aerial reconnaissance due to bad weather, and a preoccupation with Allied offensive plans elsewhere. American forces were using this region primarily as a rest area for the U.S. First Army, and the lines were thinly held by fatigued troops and inexperienced replacement units. The Germans also took advantage of heavily overcast weather conditions that grounded the Allies' superior air forces for an extended period.  

And my attention keeps going back to the Kherson front more than two years after Ukraine's failed 2023 summer counteroffensive. The 2023 was simultaneously too late to exploit Russia's culmination and too hastily prepared to succeed against reinforced and dug-in Russian troops. In that post I speculated that the new corps reorganization could be significant for a counteroffensive.

Perhaps last year's Ukrainian August Kursk attack was a proof of concept. And now Ukraine is forming large divisions (called corps) to expand that capability.  

I know, I know. Connecting a few dots to create a full picture is highly risky. Especially one I would like to see. But I keep going back to the idea that I cannot imagine that Ukraine and its NATO senior advisors have settled on passively outlasting Russia on the ground as the means of defeating Russia. Oh, a tough defense by Ukraine is as useful as the Red Army's tough defense of its Kursk Salient in 1943 that decimated Germany's offensive capabilities. But ultimately the Soviets had to follow that up with a big attack to drive the actual Nazis back to Berlin.

I admit I am reduced to speculating. But it isn't just that. I'm trying to figure out what I would do were I the God of Strategic Planning for Ukraine. 

In unrelated news, Ukraine has completed its ground force reorganization into corps. 

UPDATE (Monday): I don't know how I missed this article, but it is close to what I expected regarding Ukraine's new corps:

Compared to their US Army counterparts, the Ukrainian corps are closer to big divisions, with five or so maneuver brigades in each. ...

The 8th Corps has confirmed it will receive an artillery brigade (the 148th). Other corps likely will get artillery brigades as well, although Ukraine may have to form more if every corps is to get one, depending on how many corps end up being created. Additional support elements will likely include anti-aircraft, logistics, drone, electronic warfare, engineer-sapper, communications, and repair-restoration units, among others. ...

Ukraine is short on some corps-level capabilities. For example, unlike earlier Ukrainian corps, the current ones likely will not have army aviation units—at least not anytime soon—as Kyiv lacks enough helicopters.

And MLRS with longer ranges are insufficient to equip each corps. They might be held at higher levels. 

Much more at the link. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

NOTE: Image of the 1940 German attack through the Ardennes, from the source indicated on the image.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Western Alliances Will Be Just Fine

In case you missed it on Substack: Are Carriers an Admiral Full Employment Device?

In case you missed it on Substack: OBJECTIVE: Hezbollah

In case you missed it on Substack: The New (Old) Marine Corps?

NATO not brushed back from the plate: "NATO could transform the current mission monitoring the airspace over its eastern flank into a full defensive operation following repeated incursions by Russian drones and jets, a top military officer said on Saturday." 

In two days, it will be two years since Hamas and its allied small jihadi groups invaded Israel to rape, murder, and kidnap on a grand scale. Since then Hamas has used Gazans as human shields to keep the war going in the face of punishing Israeli ground and air attacks. Now Israel seeks to compel surrender.

Bastards!

Russia and China tried to delay "snapback" sanctions on Iran by persuading a majority to delay them. I'm quite surprised they didn't argue that the entire "snapback" mechanism is illegal under the U.N. charter. Let's see if the sanctions can be enforced.

Maduro is arming Venezuelans with rifles. He assumes they would be used against American invaders. But what if American invaders never arrive? What will the armed, poverty-stricken people use them for?

Russia: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday said any aggressive actions made toward Russia will be met with a 'decisive response.'" Why is Lavrov threatening China?

We were about jihadis getting nukes. Whether that's Sunni terrorist groups or the Shia rulers of Iran. But what if a nuclear state pursuing long-range missiles is taken over by jihadis? 

Oh FFS: "A new government watchdog report found that military ground vehicles used by the Army and Marine Corps are often not able to be used in the field by troops."

Despite grand surface fleet announcements, Russia has wisely prioritized nuclear-powered submarines for their nuclear deterrent force and the boats to protect them.

Well, mostly deserters, to be precise: "A growing number of armed Russian soldiers are operating as criminal gangs, stealing what they can and living off plunder. Local Russian police are unable to control this mayhem." They will be perfect for a civil war. 

Russia has turned to Cuba for more mercenaries to die in Ukraine.

Russia has hauled out a World War I weapon, Chloropicrin gas, to use against Ukrainian troops. At this point, I'd be hard-pressed to put business before pleasure should China invade Russia to retake their lost territories. 

Can Ukraine adapt? Will this backfire and encourage Western small drone production? "China has stopped selling Ukraine drones and drone components." 

The pro-EU party beat the pro-Russia party in Moldova's election. It's a defeat for Russia. I wish there was a pro-West but non-EU party to achieve a true victory for the West. But I'll take it for now. 

The U.S. has a plan that leads to a Palestinian state. As long as it is de-jihadified. 

But how vulnerable is it to relatively cheap suicide satellite swarms? "The United States is embarking on an ambitious project to redefine satellite deployment through the development of an orbital aircraft carrier." 

This seems like is should be something that every armored combat vehicle should have: "Some maritime special operators are getting a robotic turret that can turn machine guns into an autonomous drone-killer for boats and other vehicles." And other platoons or batteries could have a separate vehicle with APS+.

A Coast Guard icebreaker will get the ability to mount cube Mission Modules on deck space to have flexible capabilities. 

Marine stand-in forces must prepare to overcome sustainment, survivability, and isolation problems on their worst days. I don't know, I can imagine much worse days. But the effort is worthy.

Is it progress that Europe is being organized by fanatics to carry out a final solution to global warming by making Europe carbon free? 

The Gaza 20-point plan. 

Sweden will provide the backbone of a NATO brigade in northern Finland, providing a unit that promotes Arctic combat skills. Denmark, and Norway will provide combat units; France, the UK, and Iceland will provide staff and support. Finland will provide two brigades. The total will add up to a division. Good!

Apparently, pairs of Ukrainian helicopters--one with sensors and one with weapons--are surprisingly good at shooting down drones.

When a federal agency intended to protect us from foreign bad actors is turned against Americans so easily, it makes it harder to convince Americans that foreign threats should be defeated. Stay in your lane, agencies. Tip to Instapundit.

Children's Crusade 2.0 nears its end. 

Turkey used to own Egypt in the caliphate: "Turkey and Egypt staged their first joint naval drill in more than a decade last week, signaling a cautious thaw in relations after years of political hostility." But for Egypt it is a balance to reliance on the Saudis. And Turkey would like free access to the Horn of Africa.

If they can't be dead good jihadis I at least want them to remain imprisoned jihadis: "U.S. Central Command is stepping in to help reduce the population of large detention camps in northeast Syria that officials say have become incubators for ISIS radicalization."  

Good luck: "French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to back a “conference that our Saudi friends will hold” in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces, as the LAF prepares for the contentious mission to disarm Hezbollah." 

I continue to be perplexed that Western female feminists aren't the most hard-core anti-jihadis in the world.  

Sure: "A war between NATO and Russia would be one- sided even without the Americans. European NATO nations can raise far more troops and equip them with more tanks, warplanes and warships than Russia can muster." But until they are raised and deployed, a reconstituted Russian army will take ground.

Not really: "Recent attacks in Russia, the Middle East, and Ukraine show that bases are easy targets for drones, missiles, and drone-missile hybrids[.]" Russia, Israel, and even Ukraine continue to use their air bases. By all means defend air bases. They've always been attacked. Let's not get carried away. 

New national security strategy to make fortifying America a priority. Well, CONUS is the foundation for force projection. 

Hello China! "A U.S. Navy guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles arrived for a port visit to the Philippines last week during its Pacific patrol, the sea service confirmed." 

Is the U.S. failing? "Ukraine’s war has shifted the drone revolution to the ground, where unmanned ground vehicles now deliver supplies, evacuate wounded, breach mines, conduct ISR, and lay suppressive fire." I am not impressed with small ground drones. They remain a potential asset for the Army.

The Army needs to build air defenses to guard against hundreds of incoming missiles and suicide drones per day. And when is the first Russian thousand-asset raid of this war? 

Hamas is unlikely to agree to Trump's 20-point plan. That's okay. While it would be nice if Hamas accepted it, I imagine the likely purpose is to green light the Israeli offensive until its conclusion. 

I would have guessed Erdogan: "Surprise! That Sumud 'relief' flotilla crossing the Mediterranean to the Gaza Strip is actually a Hamas operation, according to secret documents just uncovered by Israeli forces operating in Gaza." 

Huh (via Instapundit): "The Trump administration is pressuring Taiwan to rapidly move 50 percent of its chip production into the US if it wants ensured protection against a threatened Chinese invasion[.]" That's something new? 

Uh oh: "Youth-led protests over power and water outages in Madagascar intensified on Tuesday despite President Andry Rajoelina's move to dismiss the government a day earlier."

Oh? "The European Commission on Monday proposed four key defense projects — including a drone wall to block Russian aerial aggression." I worry that the EU only wants the power to run projects and that the success of the projects is secondary, at best.

Taiwan: "'if Russia is defeated, China will be left alone to be dealt with by the whole Western camp,' he told the crowd. 'Second, when China and Russia are working together, they intimidate the whole world. Third, if Russia is defeated, China will have to handle Taiwan and whole world will pay attention.'"  

Can't let the wrong sort bring peace to Gaza? Or maybe the anti-Israel critics can handle only two outcomes--the destruction of Israel or the destruction of all Gazans. Either outcome would fit with their view of the world.

Hegseth said the military's only goal is "preparing for war and preparing to win" in order to "be strong so that we can prevent war in the first place." Good. Lesser standards for defense with lesser means lead to war. Honestly, I think the public speech to senior officers was for lower rank enlisted and officers.

Resisting China: "New Mexico-based contractor Ace Builders, Inc. was selected last week for a $975,000 design-build project of a small boat maintenance facility at Naval Detachment Oyster Bay in Western Palawan."

Rising sun: "The first Japanese warship destined to receive a Tomahawk cruise missile capability is now sailing to the United States for the required modifications." Bravo, China.

This time, for sure! "The United Nations Security Council on Tuesday adopted a resolution to transform a UN-backed security mission in gang-dominated Haiti into a larger, full-fledged force with military troops." 

It's just feeding the dragon, hoping to be its last meal: "The idea of a grand bargain with Beijing that trades Taiwan’s autonomy for 'stability' is seductive." It's delusional. Giving people to monsters is immoral and counter-productive. 

Macron is worried that German rearmament won't be funneled through the EU. Broke France can't afford the same and has long wanted the German oxen yoked to France's wagon. Well, Macron's wagon. 

How can the U.S.-South Korea alliance be updated? North Korea isn't the invasion threat it used to be. And the ROK has the ability to confront China at sea rather than fixate on the DMZ. So sure, an update would be nice. 

Russia fears a Golden Dome will neutralize their strategic nuclear weapons. Seriously? How thick do they think the shield will be to shoot down their huge arsenal? Unless ... . 

Unit 888: "Israel has formed Refaim, a new experimental Special Operations unit combining ground operations, drones, robotics, and real-time intelligence." Toss in AI in the discussion of countering enemies. 

Sh*t got real: "The French navy was Wednesday on board a tanker from Russia's "shadow fleet" stationed off France[.]" 

As the EU seeks "strategic autonomy" with broad military power, this is why I mistrust the EU: "giving more power to Brussels means granting more authority to bureaucrats who, for decades, have made European states less wealthy, less secure, and less free."

Trump signed an order pledging to protect Qatar from attack. Reassurance against Israel or is it against Iran?

Get back to me when it is "all": "The US Army says it has mitigated several cybersecurity risks discovered in an early iteration of its nascent Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) platform[.]" 

Romania seeks American Abrams tanks.

If South Korea wants to blame Trump in order to increase defenses, I'm fine with that. 

Senior NATO land commanders met in the victim of Russia's original Winter War.

Hey, Russia! "Protective Fence 25 has brought roughly 50 aircraft and 1,200 personnel from Finland and partner nations into a week of dispersed air operations across Finland and Sweden, the UK Defence Journal understands." BOOM

The World War II model is gone: "Absent pre-war reconstruction of critical enablers, a modern two-front mobilization would be slower, more brittle, and vulnerable to collapse under attrition before decisive effects could be generated." 

Would America's military even have occasional recruiting problems if urban schools could actually educate their pupils?

The Army will upgrade ARNG helicopter units by reducing the number of active Army AH-64Es. 

The U.S. will sell HIMARS to Australia. As I suspected, there may be an anti-ship angle.

Thank you for playing, Greta. Here are your lovely parting gifts. Seemingly everyone in the flotilla threw their electronic devices into the sea before the Israeli troops could seize them. Tip to Instapundit.

Uh oh: "At least two people have been killed in Morocco after police opened fire to prevent protesters from storming a police station in Lqliaa, near the coastal city of Agadir, state media says." "Huge youth-led protests" had started over a week ago.

My oath of enlistment was different, encompassing the state constitution, too, but enemies are not just foreign: "... I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic ..." Just saying as a point of clarification.

Scouting the undersea battle space: "The Philippine Coast Guard confiscated a Chinese-made autonomous underwater vessel operating within the country’s waters in the South China Sea over the weekend[.]" 

Hmm: "President Donald Trump has declared drug cartels to be unlawful combatants and says the United States is now in an "armed conflict” with them[.]" Either I'm wrong or this is more misdirection. Or the healing power of "and", of course. 

Um: "As Russian drone incursions across Europe spike, the European Union committed Wednesday to one of the most ambitious multi-nation defense projects in history: a Europe-wide 'drone wall[.]'" I just hope the EU values the "wall" more than it values gaining the power to build such a wall.

Terrorists had to take over airliners to have an air force on September 11, 2001. Now they can just buy their own drones to threaten our homeland. 

That would be a "no." Consequences to follow. 

Red Sea: "The Houthis are claiming an attack on a Dutch cargo ship that resulted in a fire and left two crew members injured." Will Egypt finally secure its Suez Canal cash cow? 

Critical condition: "Deposed Syrian tyrant Bashar al-Assad was poisoned in Russia right under his pal Vladimir Putin’s nose, according to a human rights watchdog." He's of no use to Russia, now. If the report is true, of course. If it was not done with Putin's approval, he may worry about his own security.

Pity that Britain imported so many actual and potential jihadis: "The suspect behind the deadly car and knife terror attack outside a synagogue in Manchester in the United Kingdom on Thursday has been identified by police as Jihad Al-Shamie, a 35-year-old British citizen of Syrian descent."

Face it, NGOs are the Houthi logistics arm for non-weapons supplies. 

A call for conventionally powered attack submarines. While the idea is sound to supplement SSNs, the Navy worries that if Congress has that option, that the Navy will get too few SSNs because the conventional boats are cheaper. But honestly, after not building them for so long, they won't be cheaper.

I did not know that Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines cannot use Harpoon anti-ship missiles. FFS.

Hmm. Good in theory. But I'm not sure how one would exploit reservists' civilian skills without tearing apart the units the reservists are in. Units the military needs to fight. 

Does China feel a closing window of opportunity to use its military to cement its status?  I saw the window closing on their foundation of power some time ago. Using military power with a shaky foundation simply risks accelerating the downhill slide. China could totally make that mistake.

The UAE's base building around the Gulf of Aden in Somaliland, Puntland, and Yemen's Socotra Island and other locations. This is done with Israel and with America's help. I mentioned Socotra not long ago. And the projects have been around for a while. The UAE also has a presence in Sudan. Busy dudes.

European countries aren't all on board the "drone wall" project. 

Trump accepted Hamas' non-acceptance acceptance of the plan. Why pretend Hamas didn't reject it? Of course, if Hamas releases all of the living and dead hostages it holds, its objections may not matter. 

I'd like some context on the claimed West Bank body count. 

Thirty thousand North Korean support troops are expected to enter Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory in a few months. North Korea seemingly doesn't want to repeat the destruction of their initial combat element. 

Interesting: Could the president use the Defense Production Act to order defense industry "primes" produce defense items he believes is critical for a war he believes is imminent? Or would the Supreme Court strike it down post-Chevron?

Do it right: "With the White House noticing the start of the mandated six-year review of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, the clock is ticking on the future of the most consequential trade partnership in America’s history."

Mali continues to suck. 

We're still just considering it? "Earlier this year the United States threatened to halt $336 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority/PA if the Palestinians did not halt their Pay for Slay program." 

Interesting: "Kim Jong-un tries to assure Xi that North Korea is not looking to hedge against China with its pursuit of stronger ties with Russia, and attempt at new dialogue with the US." My related post.

Is Ukraine's success against Russian oil refineries going to cripple Russia? Or will this be a temporary problem for Russia until it copes with Ukraine's surge in attacks? 

 

Recall that I've noted that Trump did not cancel that flow: "U.S. military support for Ukraine is expected to phase out over the next year as deliveries of Biden-era aid are completed." Which suggests American support for Ukraine won't actually end.

Would North Korea Create a Broad War Against America?

North Korea says its troops fighting for Russia are for the purpose of learning how to fight a modern war. Would North Korea really wage a war if China tells it to fight? 

Does the United States need a unified alliance command to deal with simultaneous invasions of Taiwan and South Korea? 

NATO’s lesson is clear: deterrence is not created by defense spending alone. It depends on force structure coherence, shared priorities, and a division of labor among allies. If Japan fields Tomahawk cruise missiles and South Korea invests in submarine-launched cruise missiles and explores the development of a light aircraft carrier, who integrates and sustains these systems when crises erupt? Which ally reinforces which theater, and how quickly? Without institutional answers to these questions, military planning becomes guesswork. 

Separate theaters of interest for South Korea and Japan will complicate using their forces as deployable assets. While the author's suggestion to set up a trilateral planning cell in INDOPACOM is decent because it avoids the issue of an Asian NATO. The situation of allied coordination is worse across INDOPACOM. 

But the problem of diverting Japanese and South Korean assets away from self defense to help the other front will face tough obstacles. A planning cell would surely help define what is available and other what circumstances they would be released is a solid idea.

But I doubt North Korea would send its army across the DMZ to die rather than just bombard Seoul--requiring immediate South Korean attention.  

But it might for reasons we can't fathom. And then rely on nukes to deter counter-invasion. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

The Air Base Defense Kit Will Be Centrally Located at ... An Air Base

Optimist that I am, at least we are aware that the Continental United States (CONUS) is no sanctuary.

The Air Force is vulnerable at home now. I'm glad the military is reacting to that reality, but an enemy can inflict a lot of damage in under 24 hours: 

The U.S. military will soon have teams that can respond within 24 hours to drone incursions at homeland installations. The head of U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), Gen. Gregory Guillot, announced the new effort Thursday during the Falcon Peak 25.2 counter-drone evaluation taking place at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida. That’s where the equipment, called a “fly-away kit,” was demonstrated. You can read more about what’s in these kits later in our story.

Let me state the obvious--that the military admits--that those fly-away kits won't be flying into air bases under attack. Leaving the choice of either being too late, being ambushed while landing at the air base being rescued, or counting on having at least 25 hours of advanced intelligence warning for the first attack.

Well, 25 hours plus the time to set up the systems:

The kit “includes a suite of sensors, effectors, and software optimized for expeditionary employment and the homeland defense mission. Key products in the kit include the Mobile Sentry for autonomous threat detection, tracking, and identification, Wisp SkyFence for wide-area IR passive detection and tracking, Pulsar for radio-frequency detection and electromagnetic effects, and Anvil for kinetic defeat. The kit also includes integrated power, networking, and edge compute. Designed for ease of deployment and operation by soldiers and airmen, the Fly-Away Kit delivers end-to-end kill-chain capability backed by the Lattice operating system.” 

And let's hope that the first target of an enemy isn't Peterson Space Force Base in Colorado where the first fly-away drone defense kit will be kept. 

Still, I suppose this could be a step to protecting all of the bases without relying on a mobile reaction force. And maybe start with sufficient alert guards and aircraft shelters before moving on to the more trendy exotic defenses.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Can Marines Project Power Ashore?

Not going to lie. The Department of Defense War is just humiliating the Marine Corps these days. 

Huh:

Amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6) concluded joint aviation training with the U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps, boosting interoperability and readiness in the Indo-Pacific region. On Sept. 7 and 11, 2025, off the coast of Pearl Harbor, America served as a floating airfield for rotary-wing aircraft from the Army’s 25th Combat Aviation Brigade (CAB) and Marine Corps’ Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 268.  

The Marines complain that there are not enough amphibious warfare ships. But the Army is training to use them? This is different than the 1990s thinking that included an intervention in Haiti using Army ground troops on a carrier. Although I only think such dual-purpose super carriers are necessary if the Navy downgrades super carriers in sea control distributed maritime operations.

But I digress. 

Radical Marine Force Design changes have rejected a Marine Corps capable of defeating lethal enemy ground forces.

Apparently the Marines are stuck in that awkward gap between being assault infantry and effective anti-ship forces. 

Maybe the new light Army Mobile Brigades could be assault troops from the sea given I have no confidence they can succeed in high-intensity conventional combat operations. While no heavier than Marines, at least the Army has tanks and tube artillery if the Mobile Brigades need them. 

This training was just for the 25th Infantry Division's helicopters. How long before the division's ground troops are included? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: U.S. Navy photo by MCSN Nicholas Douglass in the linked article.