What is China Trying to Do ... From the Sea?

China is doing something with their fleet and the direction isn't clear.

China's huge Type 076 landing helicopter dock (LHD) has twin islands, indicating it is optimized for air operations, including large drones:

While it’s still the case that the Type 076 appears to be primarily intended to operate rotary-winged aircraft, like a more traditional amphibious assault ship, all signs currently point to drones being a major part of its air wing, too. Once again, the twin-island configuration should help make the integration of both crewed and uncrewed aircraft simpler.

Is this a copy of our America-class ships that are amphibious warfare ships with a secondary light carrier capability? 

The USS America has been commissioned as a new type of amphibious warfare ship that focuses on air operations rather than launching small vessels to carry Marines to shore. While the ship can work as a poor-man's aircraft carrier, it is not a carrier.

Where would the Type 076 fight? Would it carry troops to invade Taiwan as a primary or secondary mission? 

Why bother when this Chinese VTOL can reach Taiwan: 

A Chinese aviation firm has built the first prototype of a large tilt-rotor drone that can carry a 2-ton load, according to a local report in Anhui province. ...

The Lanying R6000, or the Lanthanum Shadow, is designed with a maximum take-off weight of about 13,000 pounds and a maximum load of up to 4,400 pounds, the report says.

Alternatively, it can take up to 10 passengers at a time, Wuhu News reported.

United Aircraft intends for the drone to fly at up to 340 miles an hour, with a maximum range of 2,400 miles and a cruising altitude of up to 25,000 feet.

China doesn't really need sea-based air power to invade Taiwan, does it?

Is China's Type 076 intended to be a light carrier first? 

Maybe China's new Type 076 ship is for operations in the South China Sea. Troops and air power for taking small bits of land would work to make China's claims there concrete.

Is it intended to be a multi-purpose peacetime power projection asset capable of deploying troops ashore and supporting them with air power far from China's shores to protect China's extensive trade routes?

Heck, is it even a navy ship? Does the speed of construction indicate shoddy military construction or lower standards for a civilian ship? 

Or are China's shipbuilders on a deadline (2027?) set by Xi Jinping to be literally ready for war?

Face it, assuming we know how China will use sea power is dangerous.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

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Am I Wrong About Air Power Limits?

Is air power far more effective than I have assessed? Is Israel's destruction of 80% of Hezbollah's rocket arsenal the proof I am wrong?

Israel's defense minister says Israel has achieved a major success with its air campaign against Hezbollah:

“I estimate the remaining capacity of the missiles and rockets to be in the order of 20%, and also it is not organized in the way that it used to be organized, in a way that [Hezbollah] could fire [large] volleys,” he said.

If Hezbollah started with 150,000, that means 30,000 are left so the last part of disruption is important. Even that 20% could inflict serious damage if fired over a week. You can't kill the rain with anti-rocket systems, I've long warned.

But my conclusion from that logic was that Israel would need to send in ground troops to end the threat of a devastating Hezbollah barrage:

I have no idea what the Israelis are thinking when it comes to dealing with Hezbollah.

I thought Israel screwed the pooch in 2006 by failing to go in for the kill with ground troops and instead trying to rely on air power.

Although I will grant that Israel did pound Hezbollah enough to keep them quiet, Hezbollah endured to deny Lebanon a chance at a normal future and is currently an important component of Assad's military effort to fight the rebellion. And Hezbollah's arsenal of rockets is far larger when they decide to no longer be quiet.

The 2008-2009 Gaza Winter War seemed to validate my hopes that Israel had learned a lesson.

So a drive on Baalbek is the way to go, right? I've long thought that a multi-division push is in order.

Am I wrong about the relative strength of air power versus rocket barrages?

Perhaps. But I don't think his has really been a test of my thinking. My assumption on the limits of air power was that bombing physical rockets would take too long to have an effect against an enemy determined to overwhelm your air defenses. 

And Israel's 80% accomplishment took over a year to achieve, during which Hezbollah refrained from trying to launch a big barrage to overwhelm Iron Dome. Hezbollah kept up a steady drip of attacks in Solidarity Theater instead. In about a year, Hezbollah fired about 8,000 rockets at Israel. Or about 160 per week. With only a small percent of unguided rockets likely to hit a target, not that many anti-rocket rockets would be needed each week.

And even now, it is Hezbollah's disrupted command and control that erodes their ability to surge what they have left--30,000?--to punish Israel. And I assume some are simply unavailable in the short term because they are in storage. Given time, Hezbollah can repair and overcome their limits. Hence Israel's insistence that Hezbollah must be ejected from southern Lebanon for long-term security.

Mostly I was wrong in assuming that Hezbollah would use their rockets before they lost them. And that's interesting, no?

UPDATE: A timely essay based on the limits of air power.

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The Winter War of 2022 Searches Under the Lamp Post

We're in November. Another winter approaches and Russia was unable to deliver a knock-out blow despite a gap in American weapons support for Ukraine early in the year. That is an accomplishment for Ukraine. But Ukraine needs to do something to win and not merely not lose. Still, not losing is better than losing. And events can rescue you. Will Russia give Ukraine the gift of time?

I worry that Ukraine recently seems to be losing territory more rapidly than it has so far this year. I worry this change could be meaningful. Even patriots desperate to avoid being conquered by a brutal enemy can crack.

Yet it is easy for Westerners to only see the surface of relentless Russian advances seemingly oblivious to losses without seeing what it can look like from the other side. As Igor Gurkin, "imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer", observed:

Girkin assessed that the Ukrainian Summer–Fall 2024 defensive operation was successful in achieving its goals of repelling Russian offensives with minimal territorial losses; delivering strong counterattacks; preserving unused reserves; and maintaining morale within the military and society.

That's a much more pessimistic view of Russian military performance from someone who wants Russia to win. As we compare the more visible problems of Ukraine to the problems Russia cloaks in secrecy behind its bravado of relentless pursuit of victory, what don't we see? 

One thing we can't see is the attitudes of Russians who shuffle along quietly hoping they or their family members don't catch the eye of the Russian military grabbing recruits to die in Ukraine. Post-Cold War freedoms for a while let Russians see the true human cost of defeating Nazi Germany, which affected their attitudes about invading Ukraine:

This was the first major war Russia fought since World War II. Naturally, the poor preparation and high casualty rates were expected. What has changed is that, unlike World War II, Russians have more opportunities to avoid going to Ukraine at all. Post-Soviet Russia no longer has the feared KGB and nationwide network of informers. Also absent was a homicidal maniac like World War II leader Josef Stalin. Putin tried to emulate all these World War II era tools but was unable to do so. 

But does it matter? Maybe Russia is on the path to faltering. I can't know. But I certainly don't believe sanctions--never decisive on their own--are counter-productive. Never trust the source of that claim. While Russia's economy is holding together "good enough for government work", others judge it to have problems:

As the war goes on Russia receives less and less for the oil it smuggles out past the sanctions. The Americans have taken the lead in maintaining the sanctions and have been successful at it. The result is that the Russian economy is a wreck and will take a decade to rebuild and repair the damage once the war is over.

Russia can focus what it has on military production. But civilians suffer to do that.

Is this a path to Russia faltering?

Kirill's rebuke of Russians who are apathetic and disinterested in the war suggests that the Kremlin may be increasingly concerned about the sustainability of Russian society's support for the war. Recent Russian opinion polls have suggested that support for local Russian government entities and some Kremlin policies, including the invasion of Ukraine, may be wavering, although Russian citizens continue to widely support Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It may seem contradictory that possibly peace-curious inclinations exist alongside wide support for Putin. But this could become another "if only the tsar knew!" moment that spirals out of the tsar's control.

But if Ukraine falters first--or more to the point if the West that provides Ukraine with the means to resist destruction by Russia falters--we may never know how close Russia was to losing before it wins.

UPDATE (Monday): Related thoughts. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia invaded Ukraine. So stop acting like Russia is the party interested in peace:

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) Sistema project released an investigation on November 4 detailing Russia's initial 2022 demands for Ukraine's total capitulation, further supporting ISW's long-standing assessment that Russia has never been willing to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine on any terms but its own.

UPDATE (Tuesday): I suppose I should link the RFE/RL article.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

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Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and sharing links. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

The EU is the enemy of democracy: "The days when the EU could scold countries for destabilizing democracy are long gone, if indeed they ever existed. This is organization that bullies its smaller nations and ignores the bigger ones. It listens to none." Endorsed. 

I continue to update my post on Israel's war here.

Uh oh: "Pakistan’s recent discovery of oil and gas reserves, potentially among the largest globally, has sparked significant interest in its economic potential." The parasite has more blood. The poor will become more poor. China will dig in. Will Pakistan pull away from Saudi Arabia pushing the Saudis to get nukes? 

I suspect missile defenses are more concentrated and not reduced: "A proposed multibillion-dollar missile defence system for Guam has been reduced to 16 sites on the island from the original 22, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said in a draft environmental impact statement on Friday."

NASAMS: "The United States has approved $2 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, including the first-time delivery to the self-ruled island of an advanced surface-to-air missile defense system, in a move that has drawn China’s criticism."

The EU slashes away at the annoying prefix in its proto-imperial project: "Von der Leyen Wants a New Brezhnev Doctrine[.]" Yeah, the EU wants to prove that 10,000 cheese regulations are more effective than 10,000 tanks and secret police. Mind you, I disagree with the idea that Russia can't be defeated in Ukraine.

The real threat? "While global attention focuses on the potential for a major conflagration in the Middle East, great powers are sleepwalking toward conflict in Asia." Europe is cited, too, as a distraction. Ah yes, the endless search for Mr. Good War. Defeat today's aggressors and prepare to defeat China if it attacks.

Digging in: "The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is constructing a new counter-stealth radar system on a disputed reef in the South China Sea that would significantly expand its surveillance capabilities in the region, satellite imagery suggests."

Do Japan's elections reveal a leadership class in crisis? Democracy is not always stable in appearance. Maybe the elections simply reveal a nation unwilling to pretend all is well by searching for better policies rather than maintain a surface calm that lets problems fester. But I'm no Japan expert.

As Americans complain Europe isn't doing enough to resist Russia, is America handcuffing Europeans from resisting Russian aggression? Will we lose portions of Europe from our lack of seriousness?

China prepares: "China is expanding the number of road-mobile DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles that Beijing has called the 'Guam killer' for its ability to attack American forces on the Pacific island, according to a Defense Intelligence Agency report on foreign nuclear threats."

The Army proposed in 1959 a defended Moon base with Project Horizon. SMOD, here we come! I would have sworn I posted on this plan before. But I can't find it.

What does this mean? "The upcoming B-21 Raider stealth bomber could end up having a larger role in the Air Force’s plans for future air dominance[.]" So the B-21's role wouldn't be bombing enemy air bases? Is it to be a long-range stealth fighter plane like my AABONE proposal?

Ukraine has fired over 12,000 GMLRS  rockets: "GMLRS, used in conjunction with reconnaissance UAVs like Predator, gives an army the ability to call in its own airstrikes day or night and in any weather." Will they replace tube artillery?

More weapons: "Croatia now aims to supply Ukraine with 30 M-84 tanks and 30 M-80 infantry fighting vehicles in exchange for as many as 50 new Leopard 2A8 tanks from Germany[.]"  The M-84. The M-80.

Indeed: "At a moment when America’s national security situation is worse than any time in recent years, putting climate change on par with real threats - China, Russia, Iran and North Korea - is not only a dangerous distraction, it amounts to misinformation that disregards sound science and strategy."

Sh*t got real: The Pentagon published a second and more detailed plan to invigorate the American defense industry this year, including the weapons it sees as most crucial to deter China." Although I think defeating China is a better metric than deterring China. The former is more able to achieve the latter.

Good grief, of course Humvees are useful to Ukraine. If you think they aren't useful because they aren't Bradley Fighting Vehicles, I don't know what to say.

Surrounding the South China Sea: "After conducting training and humanitarian efforts throughout the Philippine archipelago last week, U.S. Marines are deploying across the region for exercises in Malaysia and Indonesia. "

NATO will add combat brigades: "The increased brigades will operate under the command of 38 division headquarters, up from 24." And increased air defenses. I recently wrote in Army magazine about a means to gather atomized European battalions into American Cadre Brigade Combat Teams, as I call them.

Ukraine is having success using the "GLSDB (Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb). This weapon combines the 227mm rocket motor that propels the GMLRS and uses it to launch the latest version of the U.S. Air Force SDB (Small Diameter Bomb), the GBU-53 Stormbreaker." 

Interesting story on Millennium Challenge 2002 exercise. Both sides have a point. Riper was right to be a thinking adversary trying to win. But the military has a point that it couldn't end the exercise on Riper's early victory because a lot of things were being tested in the exercise, including troops in the field.  

Problem: "The U.S. is running low on some types of air-defense missiles, raising questions about the Pentagon’s readiness to respond to the continuing wars in the Middle East and Europe and a potential conflict in the Pacific." Yeah. And China can't be happy Iran and Russia warned us.

Counter-measures: "The US will receive a weapon next year designed to jam Chinese and Russian satellites in the early stages of a potential conflict, the US Air Force told Bloomberg."

Ukraine hit a training facility in Chechnya with an unprecedented long-range strike. The Chechens are outraged. Chechnya is a weird, Islamist, virtually independent part of Russia that prefers to participate in the war against Ukraine by shooting Russian soldiers insufficiently motivated to die for Putin.

I've long wanted some attention paid to the Arctic. But getting overly anxious about Russia's efforts there--which Russia hugs across its long northern sea border--seems a bit much given how little is left to dominate the Arctic given the war against Ukraine. Canada, you're up to bat!

They'll pretend he's a threat to NATO: "Here’s a dirty little secret about the U.S. presidential election: Some European officials think a victory by former President Donald Trump could be what the European Union needs to muscle up on defense and get tough on China." Because the EU has a plan.

Despite the testing of a drone carrier, Italy seems to be focused on spreading networked air, surface, and underwater drones across their ships. I think that is better than having high value drone carriers whose loss takes out lots of drones, too.

The war on (Islamist) terror continues: "U.S. forces in the Middle East killed as many as 35 Islamic State group militants in a series of strikes in Syria this week, according to U.S. Central Command."

Will Putin risk surrender? "Russia may decide to just use the North Koreans as rear area support troops. There is a need for troops to help with [logistics and engineering]. ... The North Koreans would not be as desperate to desert and avoid the horrific losses Russian troops are suffering." Does Kim want them back?

Regarding just two big Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia: "These two attacks eliminated three months’ worth of Russian munitions and fuel. This will slow down Russian offensive operations for the rest of the year."

We need to build industrial capacity that can be mobilized for war. Overseas allies often are vulnerable to conventional attack on their industry. But let me add is that all we can say with confidence is that China's economic progress hasn't led to liberalization yet. History has a long timeframe. But that doesn't help now.

Hmmm: "The detention of Major General Alexander Ogloblin, the former head of Russia's military communications department, is the latest arrest of a high-ranking Russian military figure, amid speculation of a clampdown on Vladimir Putin's top brass." Dissent or paranoia?

A case for optimism: "The return of Donald Trump to the White House can transform the situation, by fixing America, bringing allies in line and making enemies think twice before taking any further risks." I'm certainly not pessimistic in general.

Iran's proxy militias inside Iraq seem to be focusing on striking Israel. What will this lead to? I've long wanted Iraq to control or disband the militias. Are they becoming too dangerous for the Iraqi government to tolerate? Or will Iran try to take control of Iraq using them?

Taiwan is testing a 100-ton UUV. Capabilities are sheer speculation. 

Interesting: "More than 100 Israeli fighter jets attacked 20 targets inside Iran, ranging from its top air-defense systems to key missile manufacturing facilities, early on October 26. Their weapon of choice: air-launched ballistic missiles." I've read that 100 warplane sorties are needed to hit Iran's nuclear program. 

Huh: "China's People's Liberation Army Navy conducted its first-ever dual carrier operation this month, flexing new muscles as it builds a fleet of aircraft carriers and an ever-larger naval force." Is that a threat to us or a dangerously tempting target? 

Extended deterrence weakens when an ally doubts we'll trade one of our cities for our ally's: "North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time in almost a year Thursday, demonstrating a potential advancement in its ability to launch long-range nuclear attacks on the mainland U.S."

Uh oh: "Skydio, the largest American drone manufacturer, announced Wednesday it is being forced to ration batteries for its customers due to supply constraints caused by the Chinese government’s sanctions. ... "

Defeating counter-measures: "[When Ukrainian drone special operators were defeated by Russian jamming] near Dnipro in August, they turned to a new solution: V-BAT drones built to withstand the massive electronic interference used by both sides in the war in Ukraine." I can't find a price. So ... $$$

That's useful: "In 2023 an American company has begun production of a 21st century version of the World War II PBY Catalina patrol aircraft. The new Catalina weighs 14.5-tons and is powered by two turboprop engines. The new Catalina can carry up to 34 passengers or 5.5 tons of cargo and has a smaller crew."

China lacks anti-submarine and mine-clearing capabilities: "Many navies share this shortcoming but for a major maritime trading nation like China, it would be sad to see all that trade shut down by a few hundred naval mines." Seems too conveniently easy, no?

Keeping every swinging (or flapping?) hull in the fleet: "Twelve Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers will remain in the fleet past their initial service lives, the Navy announced on Thursday." The extensions are from 1-5 years.

Dousing enthusiasm for the never-achieved hope for a "silver bullet" wonder solution to battlefield problems. Speaking to my choir. 

Will Xi Jinping drive workers into the cyber-world? "Some details resemble aspects of Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward (1958-61), which tried to boost production through organized working groups and intense political education but ended in disastrous failure, famine, and 30 million to 45 million deaths." 

Bad: "Iran’s growing military and political control over federal Iraq appears to be part of a broader Iranian strategy to turn the country into a base of operations from which Iran and its Axis of Resistance can conduct future operations and attacks against Israel. " Are we even trying to win Phase IX of the Iraq War? 

This is a war on terror lesson? "Ultimately, we need to consider how our actions uphold or undermine our adversaries’ ideologies and fight both the military capacity and the ideology of our adversaries in a synergistic way where both are undermined simultaneously." We crushed the Nazis. That's the lesson.

Victory through (cheap) air power? "Over the past two years, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets have reached further and further into Russia. Russian naval and air force bases in Murmansk have increasingly suffered attacks by Ukrainian drones."

Is it really concerning that China and Russia's cooperate in the Arctic? "The United States is watching growing cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic closely and some of their recent military collaboration in the region sends 'concerning signals,' the U.S. Arctic ambassador said." Really?

America announced another package of military aid for Ukraine, mostly ammunition but also Stryker armored personnel carriers in unknown numbers.

Friends: "In Ukraine NATO military and economic aid continues to flow into Ukraine, with the Americans still supplying most of it. European NATO countries are supplying most of the economic aid to Ukraine and planning to be the major supplier of economic investments in Ukraine after the war."

Uh oh: "Iran claimed it could build nuclear weapons as its supreme leader on Saturday threatened the US and Israel with a “tooth-breaking response” to Israel’s strike on Iranian military targets." I've long argued that Iran needs nukes in hand before it can make nukes. Does Iran have North Korean nuclear missiles?

Good: "The commander of the German Army brigade that is to be stationed in Lithuania said plans for the large-scale troop deployment are progressing well." But it is only a brigade. Get back to me when Germany can field a corps--as a start. 

Ethiopia has banned the import of gasoline-powered privately owned cars. But the country is not ready, "from the erratic supply of electricity in Addis Ababa, the capital, to the scarcity of spare parts."  I assume the massive GERD Nile River dam is anticipated to fill the need. One day. I guess.

Walk and Chew Strategic Gum, Okay?

Protecting America at home is both an end and a means. Don't become confused and think it is only an end.

Does American grand strategy rely on a secure homeland? 

Foreign policy experts have been debating which of America’s geostrategic interests in Asia, Europe, or the Middle East should take precedence. But recent polling tells us that the American people have a totally different top priority. They want our leaders to focus more on the security of our U.S.–Mexico border.

Absolutely. Securing our border a basic function of our government. But it is one that doesn't rely on our military except in emergencies. We have civilian agencies to guard the border.

We also need quiet and protection at home to project power. So don't pretend that we must abandon projecting power to secure the homeland first. That's dangerous:

America kept Europe in the West and expanded the West in two world wars and one Cold War. Let's not throw away what we achieved with shortsighted urges to to "come home." Threats will follow us home.

We've managed to secure our border and project power for a long time. All we need to do is choose to do so.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Kill Them All, Let the Joint Staff Sort Them Out

Multidomain drone threats confront the Army in many domains.

This makes sense:

With kamikaze drones being widely used in the Ukraine war, countering unmanned aerial systems remains a weapon of concern for the U.S. Army. However, the service is not only focusing on combating aerial systems, but those on land and sea as well, officials said Oct. 14.  

The Army operates on rivers, lakes, and the water side of the littorals. It has ferries, bridges, and watercraft in its own "navy." And the Army fights in the air, as well as being threatened from the air. So I don't see this as diverting attention from its core competencies of large-scale conventional or irregular combat operations that I sometimes drone on about.

Although taking on responsibility for space drones that attack Army targets would seem like a mission bridge too far, best handled by Space Force or the Air Force.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Sweden Mans the Wall

Sweden is stepping up to contribute to NATO-wide security rather than just being a consumer of alliance security.

Sweden formally becomes a security provider in NATO: 

Pending approval from the Swedish parliament, the bill outlines Stockholm’s contribution of ground troops, marine units, naval vessels, and combat aircraft to the alliance.

“This is a historic decision. For the first time as an ally, we will contribute an armed force to NATO’s collective defense,” said Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard.

The Swedish assets will support NATO forces in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, where Sweden shares a maritime border with Russia.

That was always my condition for membership rather than just valuing its geography.

And I missed this part of Sweden's efforts:

In April, Stockholm announced a plan for deploying a battalion of 600 soldiers to Latvia, including CV90 armored vehicles and Leopard 2 main battle tanks, to be implemented in 2025.

Good. It could be part of a multinational brigade to enhance its combat power. Maybe in one of ours if my proposal in Army is picked up.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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A Flood of Ships Heading to Sea?

How much of China's naval build up is part of a mindless five-year plan rather than actual capabilities?

This capability is ominous:

Satellite imagery reveals the recent major expansions that have made China’s shipbuilding infrastructure the most robust in the world. Even the commercial vessels built alongside the warships in these yards are being constructed to military specifications, including the ability to carry troops and vehicles during conflict. ...

China’s shipbuilding expansion should be a wake-up call. The facilities needed to churn out advanced warships can’t be built overnight. If a conflict arises in the Pacific, the United States would be forced to fight with the ships it has.

China can build more ships in a month than American shipyards can build in a year. That seems to grossly under-estimate China's capacity. Perhaps it is more accurate to say China is currently building at that ratio? But China could build more if it chose to?

And worse, repairing battle damage will be daunting for America, meaning that a mission kill is as good as sinking a ship. In a long war, how will losses be replaced?

But  we've heard that the new car smell of the PLA Navy conceals figurative rust:

China has a problem that makes their shiny new modernized military less than what it seems. And it isn't just the lack of experience in waging war with all their new stuff.

No, the main problem for China is corruption that makes their military less effective than it seems:

Corruption in the Chinese military has been a problem for thousands of years but the current government is making a major, but largely ineffective, effort to curb these bad practices.

That means China isn't as formidable a foe as paper comparisons would indicate. That's good for us.

And as even recent reports claim, it hasn't been fixed, apparently. But it might be good enough.

Is the PLAN a paper tiger reflecting mindless plans that emphasize pumping out ships that look great for the reporting entity on reports sent up the chain of command without the support to effectively operate them? Or is it a skeleton that will be fleshed out in the coming decade?

UPDATE: This is comforting:

In 2023 Chinese leader President Xi Jinping made the awful discovery that his navy and air force had miniscule stocks of spare parts. This alone made a Taiwan invasion impossible. In addition, the lack of spare parts made it impossible to sustain months of combat against Taiwanese holdouts and American reinforcements that would follow landings on Taiwan. 

Can Xi correct enough of the hollowness to work long enough? 

UPDATE: Commander Salamander has related thoughts.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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