I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Defending the Sea Lines of Communication to the First Island Chain
In case you missed it on Substack: Still Learning the Lessons of 2022
In case you missed it on Substack: The Return of Carrots to Belarus Policy
In case you missed it on Substack: Hold, Kill, Counter-attack
Economic ambition and military necessity: "Long overlooked by Ottawa, Canada’s remote and resource-rich Arctic is
suddenly at the center of a new national project — one whose potential
was recognized early on by outside players, including the United States." It's TDR approved!
Given that people can already donate to reduce the national debt or voluntarily pay more taxes, I'm not sure why a private contribution to help pay troops during the shutdown raises ethical questions. What about the ethics of refusing to pay them?
As long as the Navy is in the neighborhood: "A U.S. warship docked in Trinidad and Tobago‘s capital Sunday as the Trump administration boosts military pressure on neighboring Venezuela and its President Nicolás Maduro."
Okay: "The Marine Corps is working on building out its logistics capabilities
abroad, aiming to better resupply and sustain forces in the Pacific in
the event of a major conflict." Good luck with that.
Ready for Plan B yet? "Israeli forces carried out a "targeted strike" on an individual in
central Gaza who was planning to attack Israeli troops, Israel's
military said on Saturday." Plan B. Hamas is just stalling to avoid disarming.
Sh*t got real in Croatia.
Is Xi Jinping brilliant or the F**k-up Fairy?
If Kuznetsov had two aircraft crashes we'd mock the Hell out of the Russian navy. At one level, accidents are the price of preparedness. But two so close together? Are we at coincidence already? LATER: Hmm. Perhaps my tinfoil hat is perfectly adjusted. But coincidences do happen.
This author wonders if this is because of actual plots or just fear of plots: "The most notable development from this week’s Party Plenum is the large-scale purge of the People’s Liberation Army." I wonder if it is getting rid of deadwood prior to going to war. With bonus references to who can order the PLA to war.
South Korea can help in a Taiwan war but South Korea must remain focused on the DMZ. For America, South Korea is mostly a power projection platform that can handle its local defense.
Israel had the societal confidence in itself to destroy Medieval barbarians despite the despicable caterwauling that Hamas and their ilk must be "understood" for "why they hate us"--and what we could do to stop deserving death.
I don't think that word "unprecedented" means what you think it means. Breathe, people. And work the problems, of course.
Russia is right to be suspicious of China.
State of the bad guys: Iran edition. Risks and opportunities for the U.S. Of note, beating the Houthis will require a local partner to conduct ground operations. Indeed. And resisting Iran in Iraq. Yes.
If enforcing them is a separate issue, they really didn't snap back, did they? "The United States and its international partners must ... enforce the
UN 'snapback' sanctions that the United Kingdom, France, and Germany
reactivated against Iran."
The EU needs a stronger identity to defeat nationalism? Good luck to Europeans if the EU gets that.
Does that scare Trinidad and Tobago or make them committed to Maduro's defeat? "Venezuela revoked energy deals with neighboring Trinidad and Tobago for its support of a US military offensive in the Caribbean[.]"
I wouldn't focus on trendy drones. But yes, American firepower and specialized capabilities are needed to support European ground forces. And in fact, with only a few American Army combat brigades in Europe, practically speaking we are already at the stage of the Europeans providing the ground forces.
American and Indian P-8s practiced naval patrol missions near Diego Garcia. Cutting China's sea lines of supply across the Indian Ocean would hurt China a lot.
Non-stealth B-1 bombers flew "near" Venezuela.
Turkey to buy British Typhoon fighter planes. Is this a sign that Turkey has ruled out behaving less like an Islamist state to rejoin the F-35 program?
Huh: "Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korea’s top diplomat during
her visit to Moscow as the two countries continue to deepen their
military cooperation." Just what is the plan Putin mentioned?
Good luck to the Sudanese people. The Sainted International Community® couldn't care less about actual genocide if Israel can't be blamed.
Is bad fuel the cause of those two Nimitz aircraft going down in the South China Sea? Honestly, I'd be shocked if China is responsible. Still, a local commander off the leash might think it a good idea at some point, if not this point.
Protecting the sea lines of communication: Red Sea edition.
Can Russia win with its level of government corruption?
They can fight: "Japan is donating six Abukuma-class destroyer escorts to the Philippines." If the Philippines can win a short, tiny war against China, China faces escalation speed bumps.
Keep in mind that military justice is designed not so much for justice as it is for maintaining an effective military. Justice problems in an organization that sends troops to kill and die should not be a shock. Perhaps if we renamed it the Uniform Code of Military Punishment. Not saying it can't be improved.
True: "Washington does not merely lack Arctic strategy — it lacks Arctic
command. The High North is a glaring blind spot in America’s national
security." I've long advocated a POLARCOM.
A sense of urgency, please: "Japan and the United States are expected to sign a memorandum to
cooperate in strengthening shipbuilding capabilities in both countries
as part of economic security measures, according to media reports."
A Russian transport aircraft landed in Venezuela. Weapons? Ammo? Electronic warfare equipment? Personnel? Heck, is its primary purpose to evacuate personnel and evidence of Russian activities there?
A big Israeli objective is destroying the tunnel system that Hamas built. That would make it much harder for Hamas to rebuild its control and terror capabilities.
Yes: "Europe’s populations are readier to fight than they are often credited. The problem isn’t their lack of will, but elite pessimism about it." Europeans are very much from Mars. But elites blame the bloody peasants. In the short term, European nations aren't being led to defend themselves.
Not saying we must do something about it, but this occupation doesn't inspire college students to demand free Cyprus "from the green line to the sea."
Settler-colonialism in action, with collaborators running the native's government.
Israel refuses to pretend that the ceasefire with Gaza fully exists.
China has long tried to act as if the South China Sea is simply an internal Chinese issue. Is China persuading foreigners to act is if it is under China's jurisdiction?
America and Japan strengthened defense ties and American access to rare earth and critical minerals.
Ukraine hit a Russian dam and the flooding is screwing up Russian logistics in the Kharkiv section of the front.
The Philippines resists China's subliminal offensive: "Philippine Marines deployed two small boats last week to escort a
Chinese fishing boat that Manila claimed was illegally fishing at Second
Thomas Shoal." You recall the shoal, right? Manila needs to pour concrete before that outpost is washed away.
About the CV-90s the Ukrainians will help produce.
British and French SSBNs.
Strong proof that Hamas is stalling the return of hostage bodies to Israel: "The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on Wednesday
condemned what it called an apparent 'staged' exhumation of the remains
of an Israeli hostage in the Gaza Strip."
I've had concern that political violence from dark corners of the left (and celebrated or excused by media and online people) is Bleeding Kansas and could spark something much worse. But I think we've come through worse even as the left panics itself. As long as law enforcement and courts punish violent scum.
I assume the Navy will respond to urgent humanitarian needs in the wake of Hurricane Melissa--and the American base in Cuba was in the path--before resuming scheduled programming.
Will China practice with small wars before the main even against Taiwan? I've suggested a smaller initial objective. But as practice? How well did Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and the Donbas prepare Russia for the Winter War of 2022? And practice may also serve to alarm neighbors who arm up faster in response.
Stop flinging panties at the latest dreamy silver bullet weapon. There will always be newer and shinier weapons to send your heart fluttering and inspire poetry.
The duplicitous a-holes stabbed us in the back (hiding Osama bin Laden in Pakistan!) while we tried to do that. So good freaking luck: "Pakistan's defence minister threatened on Wednesday to "obliterate" the ruling Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan[.]" Maybe their new Chinese buddies will help. LOL.
Oh no! Anyway ....
The U.S. will reduce its post-Winter War of 2022 Army temporary surge in Europe by a brigade, it seems.
This is one of the Guard's jobs: "The National Guard is developing a “quick reaction force” of troops
trained in crowd control and civil disturbance that can be ready to
deploy to U.S. cities by January, according to a leaked memo[.]" Um, Minutemen? My unit had riot control training.
First we had AUKUS. Now we have ROKUS.
Is EMAL FUBAR and not fixed? "President Donald Trump told Navy sailors that he intends to sign an
executive order directing the service to use steam for its aircraft
carrier’s catapults and hydraulics for the ship’s elevators."
Preparing for AUKUS boats: "A Virginia-class attack submarine is in port in Australia for the second
maintenance period of a nuclear-powered boat on foreign soil." And for USN forward maintenance.
Interesting: "IBM is set to launch a new large language model that’s purpose-built for
defense and national security applications and trained on data from
open-source intelligence provider, Janes." Trained on--not relying on?
If flexible "mission command" is adopted by the PLA, is it compatible with CCP doctrine? Won't political officers looking over the shoulder of commanders undermine that concept? I'm not confident the U.S. Army operates under that concept.
LOL: "President Vladimir Putin says that Russia successfully tested one of its Poseidon nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped, ultra-long-endurance torpedoes yesterday." Release the Kraken!
It is unclear if American forces shot it down: "A suspicious drone flying near a base used by U.S. forces in Estonia was
recently shot down, authorities in the Baltic country bordering Russia
said this week."
The assault on Russia's internet.
I hope we are doing better: "Chinese weapons designers have apparently solved the AGS problem with a
novel new electromagnetic railgun cannon that can launch shells at
speeds of over 8,000 kilometers an hour."
As a rule I don't like tariffs. But I also don't like that since right after World War II, the tariff (and non-tariff trade barriers) have been heavily tilted against America. It is time to change that. So far the tariffs don't seem to be having bad effects on America. But I still hope they are a means rather than an end.
Can Trump pry Russia away from China? I've long hoped for that and figured that was Trump's game. But I doubt the oil sanctions are decisive. On the other hand, you never know what increment makes the total decisive.
With this situation, Hamas survives: "Gaza’s new normal seems to be a ceasefire that is both fragile and
durable. A truce that holds in general but can vanish in an instant,
only to be restored within hours or days." Time for Plan B.
Regime change in Venezuela won't be done with the forces we have deployed or are likely to send. But could internal resistance do that with limited American help? Nice work if you can get it. And would South American powers contribute security forces if Maduro is overthrown?
Air power on the rocks: "NORAD surged two F-35s, two F-16s, and a trio of KC-135s to Pituffik
Space Base in Greenland earlier this month for a 'dynamic operational
exercise,' testing its ability to rapidly deploy forces in the Arctic." Learn the limits that extreme cold inflicts on units.
My latest article in Army magazine is online.
This is known as "reloading": "Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to resume talks in Istanbul at the
request of mediator Turkiye after earlier rounds between Islamabad and
Kabul failed to resolve spiralling tensions between the neighbours that have exploded into military clashes in recent weeks."
Even if it works, what is the point of Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile? Perhaps if Russia builds a large wooden badger ... .
As we contemplate how to deal with Syria's post-Assad Sunni Islamist government, recall my warning long ago.
He'd have to say that regardless of the true state, no? "Vice Adm. Richard Correll, the Trump administration’s nominee to head US
Strategic Command, today told the Senate Armed Services Committee that
he is 'absolutely confident' in the reliability of the nation’s nuclear
arsenal[.]"
Okay: "Speed. Persistence. Capabilities 'designed and built to enable
operations inside the weapons engagement zone.' The commander of U.S.
Pacific Fleet wants it all. And he wants it now." As long as the fleet has a good reason to operate in the enemy weapons engagement zone.
Be careful given that Hamas exploited Israeli reliance on non-human sentries: "The first to fight on the ground in a Russian attack on NATO territory could be allied robots rather than infantrymen." Let's not get ahead of ourselves. But I've long felt robots have a role in static defense. But humans will never be out.
I guess we know Lebanon won't disarm Hezbollah: "Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has instructed the armed forces to
confront any further Israeli incursion in the country’s south after
Israeli forces crossed their shared border and killed a municipal worker
during an overnight raid."
It's a Chinese subliminal war: "China’s persistent use of maritime gray zone tactics poses a fundamental
challenge to regional stability and the international order."
Gulp: "FBI Director Kash Patel said the department thwarted a 'potential terrorist attack,' arresting multiple suspects in Michigan."
Oh, FFS Canada. With that kind of soft, post-history military leadership, Canada will stink on ice no matter how much money is spent. Canada once stood tall with NATO in West Germany. And fought at our side in Afghanistan. What happened? Did the Somalia scandal in the end break them? Tip to Instapundit.
Structural anti-Semitism at the global level.
Ukrainians still want to resist Russia's invasion. But casualties have an effect: "Ukraine used a series of clever moves to maintain their troop numbers
despite growing losses and increased reluctance of Ukrainian men to
serve." What's the reality in less-free Russia over much higher losses?
Will America strike Venezuelan facilities used to smuggle drugs: "If President Trump
decides to move forward with airstrikes, they said, the targets would
send a clear message to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro that it is time
to step down." When you strike a king, kill him. We only have signal strength.
Keep in mind that Trump did not say he wanted nuclear detonations to test warheads:
"US president Donald Trump has directed the War Department, formerly
the
Department of Defense, to restart the testing of nuclear weapons." But I
admit I'm wary of relying on computer simulations to "test" warhead
designs.
Can China decouple trade with America more effectively than America can decouple from China?
Can the West draw--and enforce--red lines against Chinese and Russian gray zone tactics (which I call "subliminal warfare")?
I don't think getting the first volunteer for the stabilization force countries to serve in Gaza is the major problem. The major problem is Hamas, which wants to survive above all else. Time for Plan B.
From the "Well, Duh" files, Russia is the biggest threat to Danish possession of Greenland.
FFS, preventing a wave of migrants should not rely on peace and prosperity in the Third World. Stop them at the border; refuse to provide benefits,; and send them back.
The dark side of Zelensky's rule. No doubt. But a constitution is not a suicide pact. Especially when Doctor Putin is ready to assist.
I mentioned last week that trade disputes would not harm America-India defense ties: "India and the US have signed a framework agreement to expand defence cooperation over the next 10-years."
Will Ukraine get these? "Germany and the United Kingdom have jointly contracted General Dynamics
European Land Systems (GDELS) to develop and produce a new generation of
floating bridges for rapid frontline deployment[.]"
To be fair, mostly peaceful: "Over 200,000 deaths are attributed to Islamic terrorist groups operating in sub-Saharan Africa in the past ten years." If the good guys could win the civil war, that would be great.
Collateral damage: "Most of the wounded North Korean soldiers were returned to North Korea
where they told others about hearing popular music while in Ukraine and
noting that Ukrainians had a much higher standard of living than North
Koreans." I didn't think Kim would let anybody return home alive.
Shame. That's no way to fulfill your enlistment oath.
China is appearing militarily far from Taiwan lately. Hmm.
Going to war with Venezuela likely requires Congressional approval--unless Venezuela strikes first. But I agree this kinetic drug war is legal: "The future of Venezuela remains unknown, but the boats going up in flames are legitimate targets of the U.S. military." Unless Congress cuts of funding.
Well that's different: "President Donald Trump announced Friday that he is designating Nigeria a
Country of Particular Concern (CPC) due to the relentless persecution
of Christians conducted by “radical Islamist” terrorists." Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's subliminal war on the West. It may be designed to go under our radar, but it is a war.
Making aiming easier. The path to weapons that aim themselves is already clear. And the Army will need to adapt to enemies on the same path.
Turkey could counter-balance Iran there: "Iraq signed a deal with Turkey
on Sunday under which water infrastructure projects to be carried out
by Turkish firms will be financed with revenue from oil sales, a Turkish
official said."
