The Winter War of 2022 Makes a New Year's Resolution Bluff

Russia leans into its bluff that all is well in the three-week special military operation to liberate Ukraine from Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine prepares to enter the new year with the 4-year anniversary of the three-week special military operation looming. As the year ends, Russians are admitting that Ukraine has been successfully counter-attacking at Kupyansk and that Russia doesn't have the manpower to sustain broad offensives. Which again makes me doubt Russian claims of how many troops are really attacking Ukraine.

I'm certainly not the only one to repeatedly say that Russia has many problems their boastful confidence obscures. Yet many Americans, used to publicly claimed problems even when none exist, take the Russian claims of inevitable victory at face value.

The conclusion drawn by those Americans is that supporting Ukraine despite their fierce and effective resistance just gets more Ukrainians killed in a pointless losing war. Which is bizarre given the complaint from only a day ago (figuratively, in Afghanistan) that we are fools to support people who can't fight effectively. I'm getting strategic whiplash.

But I digress. 

That level of lying is standard operating procedure for the Russians:

[Their blatant lies fuel] my utter frustration with the Russians for invading Ukraine and then standing there saying, "What? No, no. You are mistaken. We are not invading anyone. Why would you say that? Don't you like us? Are you plotting against us? In fact, you are invading. Why are you invading!?"

Russia's campaign of lying is completely separate from their method of aggression and would be done whether it is subversion, a subliminal invasion via little green men, or massed armor backed by air power. 

I wrote that in September 2016. 

So it is no shock that Putin in his end of 2025 address to his subjects claims Russia has no reason to compromise in the war:

Putin stated that Russia is ready and willing to end the war based on the principles he outlined during his June 2024 speech to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). Putin used that speech to lay out his conditions to agree to a ceasefire and only then start negotiations: Ukraine’s complete withdrawal from all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Ukraine’s abandonment of its NATO membership aspirations. Putin stated in this 2024 speech that Russia’s “fundamental” position calls for Ukraine’s neutral status, demilitarization (the Russian demand for limits on the Ukrainian military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself), and denazification (the Russian demand for the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government). Putin had also demanded that the international community enshrine its recognition of Russia’s annexation of the four oblasts and Crimea in international agreements and that the West lift all sanctions against Russia. Many of Putin’s June 2024 demands, which Putin reiterated on December 19, directly contradict the US-proposed 28-point peace plan and its subsequent iterations.

The inability to see the problems of the enemy--and yes, bizarrely enough, America is Russia's main enemy by their own acts and rhetoric--is a constant in history:

Man cannot tell but Allah knows

How much the other side is hurt.

And American tendencies to amplify our own problems--while in one way a prod to fix actual problems--accentuates the inability to appreciate how much enemies can lie in order to fool us into giving up.

Russia is hurt. And while we may not appreciate it, it is also true that--and God help the Russian people--Putin may not know it. This is a problem:

The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 22 that two unspecified officials stated that Russian military and security authorities regularly give Putin updates that inflate Ukrainian battlefield casualties, highlight Russia’s resource advantages, and downplay tactical failures. FT reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, is responsible for briefing Putin about the war. The sources reportedly stated that the “rosy picture” that military officials paint during their briefs has led Putin to believe that Russia can win the war. FT stated that the sources noted that Putin regularly meets with “confidants” who tell him that the war has become a “growing drag” on the Russian economy, however.

How do we negotiate with that? How do we send nuanced diplomatic signals into that fog of delusion? 

Not to get my hopes up, but does Ukraine's ability to counter-attack locally seem more productive lately? Just asking for a friend.

Anyway, just who in the Kremlin will tell Putin he is effing up royally? Are a few economic confidants enough?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy: Europe

In case you missed it on Substack: Put Tail Fins on the Old Model

In case you missed it on Substack: Creating Worries in the Sea of Japan

In case you missed it on Substack: Recon in a Persistent Recon Environment

Turmoil in Chad. I think the last time I paid attention to Chad was the Toyota War. 

South Korea was once a consumer of Western security. Now it produces security for the West: "South Korea is the tenth largest weapons exporter worldwide." Admit it, we won the Korean War. 

Good: "Jordan confirmed Saturday that its air force took part in strikes launched by the United States on Islamic State group targets in Syria in retaliation for the killing of three U.S. citizens earlier this month." But don't expect too much. Firepower from planes, hellicopters, and artillery won't destroy ISIL. 

Temporary duty at Manta: "The U.S. military is sending a contingent of Air Force personnel to Ecuador in support of 'anti-drug trafficking' operations."

The LCS concept gets small and loses (if desired) its crew.

Russia rejected America's proposal. Europe affected prospects not a whit: "Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy aide says that changes made by European countries and Ukraine to the United States’s proposals for an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine do not improve the prospects for peace." 

Reach out and touch somebody: "Sweden will soon have the capability to conduct deep strikes far behind enemy lines, as the Gripen will be integrated with the German-made Taurus cruise missile earlier than planned[.]" Ice, ice, baby. 

Lukashenko: "Russia had deployed its latest nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to the country[.]" I doubt Russia risked putting actual nuclear warheads there.

Speed bumps: "European Union lawmakers want to remove internal barriers to the cross-border movement of troops and military equipment, allowing the forces of partners and allies such as the U.S. to move across the Continent faster in a crisis." If only the EU wanted to help rather than undermine NATO. 

France wants a big, shiny, nuclear-powered, floating symbol of French power.

Ukraine produces cheap interceptor drones to counter suicide drones. Until these fighters are reusable, the prophecy is not quite fulfilled. 

Can the Dark Ages return to the West? In part, this could spark a debate about whether the Dark Ages were really dark. But the point is that civilizations can decline. I think America is better able to resist and cope with that outcome. And I retain hope that a space frontier can replace what Columbus sparked.

America gets a "new" warship: "The U.S. Navy has brought its first Flight III Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer, the USS Jack H. Lucas, into service marking the beginning of the latest phase in by far the world’s oldest destroyer program." Please don't be the last warship America can design and build.

Exactly: "Some pundits have suggested that the fighting in Ukraine has proved that cannon artillery has little value on the modern battlefield. Those pundits are wrong." Cheap suicide drones emerged in a drone counter-measures vacuum and a shell shortage. The war has lasted long enough to reduce both factors.

Either Trump amazingly and rapidly solved all the economic and societal factors that previously were claimed by his opponents to be the cause of dismal military recruiting--or the solution was as simple as celebrating rather than demonizing the traditional base of recruits in America. Choose one explanation.

The Islamic State is back. That's what happens when you walk away from a fight against jihadis on a Mission from God. We left Afghanistan over four years ago. Imagine what the jihadis there are up to. 

The Arab Spring has moved the center of power in the Arab world to Persian Gulf monarchies. True. But it has only been fifteen years. The Arab Spring ended the traditional alternatives of nationalist autocracy or mullah-based dictatorship. It will take time to build the hoped-for alternative of rule-of-law democracy.

Denmark and their colony Greenland warned America about taking over Greenland. Seriously? America's interest stated with hyperbole in keeping China out does not imply aggression against Greenland. Perhaps I should grant Denmark the same benefit of the doubt and assume they were really talking about China.

Is Iraq finally going to de-fang the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Force militias that rose up in the aftermath of ISIL's overrunning of Iraqi territory in 2014? 

Russia's next space station will be built with the remnants of the International Space Station after the partners de-orbit their portions of the ISS. Good luck with that. Although I admit I wondered why we couldn't somehow use all that mass placed in orbit at a high cost. 

Blowback from Chinese subliminal warfare: "This past year saw the U.K. and France carrier strike groups conduct Western Pacific deployments as other allied nations monitored milestones and movements of Chinese and North Korean forces." 

Will capabilities follow? "A new White House new executive order, 'Ensuring American Space Superiority,' emphasizes space security as a high priority for President Donald Trump and underlines the Space Force’s role in not only defending U.S. assets, but also in the attack mission." 

I remain confused about how Israel closing Army Radio--the radio station of the army of the government of Israel--is "a move that shutters one of Israel’s oldest media institutions at a time of mounting concerns over press freedom." I live in Bizarro World now.

Zelensky certainly doesn't act as if American diplomacy is betraying Ukraine: "'Overall, it looks quite solid at this stage,' the Ukrainian leader said of recent talks with U.S. officials[.]" Breathe, people.

Iran was unavailable for comment: "China and Russia have expressed support for Venezuela as it confronts a US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers[ and other pressure.]" 

Russia tries to conquer Georgia from within, since it is too busy getting hammered in Ukraine to invade (again). America prevented the first invasion from succeeding. 

Denmark and Europeans in general are getting their panties in a twist over Trump's repeated desire to own Greenland--a local-rule colony of Denmark. That's not the same as saying America will "seize" Greenland from Denmark. Just say "no" to the offer. And protect it from threats far more real than America.

The fruits of corruption: "As of a month ago, seven of the 49 countries in sub-Saharan Africa had their elected governments replaced by military rulers this year." 

An Air Force F-15 was put back in service in under 12 hours with 3D-printed parts.

Is Canada building the wrong kind of army? I'm happy they are building an army. And while I have concerns, I quibble with the idea that we have a transparent battlefield. Every advance in gathering and moving information seems revolutionary--until it is a new normal and part of adapted operations.

Why America looks south: "The geopolitical logic is that greater economic growth in Latin America will reduce vulnerabilities in the Eastern Hemisphere and, in time, could moderate immigration to the United States. This would require greater political stability in certain Latin American countries." 

Is America's military deployment--too much for blockading Venezuela but too little to occupy it--really directed at Cuba? The force level made me wonder. So I looked for weaker targets. Solving Cuba would be great. But I worry more about a Chinese than Russian presence. My thoughts on regional strategy.

Will the European Union exist in four years? Oh? Be still my heart. This take on U.S.-European relations is ridiculous. The EU already hates America and America is belatedly returning the favor. And without the EU, Europeans may again thrive with freedom and security.

Aim high--and faster: "New NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said he wants the agency to move faster on key programs such as Artemis but acknowledged he needs time to get up to speed on NASA’s activities." Tip to Instapundit.

Will any Venezuelan tanker be safe under these conditions? Interesting. I suppose the Chinese could flag them ...  Tip to Instapundit. 

Huh: "Pakistan’s military is tightening its grip on the country with sweeping legal changes that critics say are centralizing power in the hands of army chief Gen. Asim Munir." I'm not sure how much more the parasite can suck out of the host. 

The U.S. has pumped up the deployment of special forces aircraft to Puerto Rico.

The Air Force is working on big, expensive drone "wingmen". Ten thousand cheap, small drones can't do what a single really capable drone can do. Vice versa applies, of course. 

Perhaps America doesn't plan to invade Greenland, eh? "The United States cleared a potential sale of over $900 million in medium-range missiles to Denmark, an announcement that comes as President Donald Trump renews a push to take control of the country’s autonomous territory of Greenland." 

America has rounded up regional help to pressure Maduro: "the US secured military deals with Paraguay, Ecuador, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago in the past week alone." 

Affordable mass for the Air Force with air-to-air missile-armed UAVs. 

China leads in new patents; America leads in the value of new patents. Add in the value of other Western countries and the West has triple the value of China.

Do or die time: "Huntington Ingalls Industries/HII ...is implementing new manufacturing methods to build everything except carriers and submarines, faster and cheaper [with] distributed shipbuilding. Portions of a warship hull and superstructure are built by different firms all over the country." 

If the Marines want to be amphibious again rather than sub-par Navy anti-ship batteries, all is not lost. 

Amazon front: On the Internet nobody software can tell you're a dog North Korean agent. Tip to Instapundit.

INDOPACOM is going to try out amphibious aircraft to see if that long-lost capability is still useful. Glad this concept is getting a test. Still not happy with a gelded Marine Corps. But an improvement is an improvement.

The rise of two potential strategic nuclear weapon foes is a challenge for America. 

China's leadership wants "new quality combat forces" but China's reality is a speed bump: "Technological progress is undermined by ongoing issues within the People’s Liberation Army, such as corruption, political unreliability, and governance issues."

We may not be very interested in jihadi murderers. But jihadi murderers are very interested in us. Somalia is the gift that keeps on giving. When Bush 41 sent Marines into Somalia to cope with starvation, I knew gratitude would give way to the urge to murder us. First in Mogadishu and now at home.

A warning to Europe not to follow Lebanon's path. Parts of Europe are nearing a state-within-a-state status like Hezbollah. That's no fun but being a minority in your own country is worse.

Until Hezbollah is broken up in Lebanon, I have zero confidence that the terrorists won't re-infiltrate southern Lebanon: "Israel is reportedly considering a plan that outlines 'stringent conditions' for southern Lebanon in return for Israel 'forgoing military action,' according to Lebanese media."

This description of U.S.-led peace proposals to end the Winter War of 2022 doesn't portray America abandoning Ukraine, notwithstanding the near hysteria I've heard all year. Interests naturally develop between allies the longer a war goes on. I wonder more about Russia and China.

Rearming: "Israel is selling its Arrow 3 anti-missile missiles to Germany in a $4.6 billion deal. Germany will also receive the Green Pine radar. Germany eventually expects to have several Arrow batteries deployed along their eastern border to intercept Russian long range missiles." 

America's version of Iran's cheap Shaded suicide UAV doesn't seem very cheap. A problem of being a wealthy country with higher labor costs?  Perhaps volume will bring the cost down. 

Israel continues to destroy tunnels and kill jihadi terrorists in Gaza where its troops stand. 

In Russia, I'm sure "expecting" the war to end in 2026 is safer than saying they "want" the war to end: "The survey of 1,600 Russians aged 18 and above found that 55% believe what Moscow calls its 'special military operation' is nearing its end." Do they expect to win or lose?

Well that Saudi statement doesn't sound futile at all: "The kingdom remains hopeful that the public interest will prevail through ending the escalation by the Southern Transitional Council and the withdrawal of its forces from the two governorates in an urgent and orderly manner." Who will make the STC retreat?

I assume the defense pact has nuclear provisions. Decades ago I thought the deal was that the Saudis funded Pakistan's nuclear program and Pakistan would under certain conditions provide warheads for Saudi missiles purchased from China. 

Huh: "President Trump announced Thursday that the US military hit ISIS terrorists in Nigeria targeting Christians with 'numerous' deadly airstrikes." Nigeria's government cooperated. Will it exploit the strikes? This is morally right. And supports the war on Islamist terror. But be careful about sliding back into R2P.

Iran's friction with Kurds inside the mullahs' rump empire sparked some fire. 

The Ukraine lobby appeals to our heart and not our head? It is morally right. Sure, America has no interest to justify actively fighting Russia now. Interests diverge. We have an interest in keeping Russia as far east as possible. But as they move west our interest in fighting rises. When did the "right" get this way?

Sure, Trump could make military mistakes in 2026, including by leaning forward too much. But I do find this caution humorous coming alongside the criticism that the National Security Strategy doesn't even name potential enemies.

Iran's "King of Iraq" is the most dangerous man in Iraq. I guess the prior one, Moqtada al-Sadr, is downgraded.

The state of transformation in the Air Force (halted), the Marines (controversial), and Army (bizarrely non-controversial). Space Force is too new for this; and the Coast Guard is just happy to have budget attention.

Twenty-four years ago on December 26, 1991, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was dissolved. Rot in Hell, socialist bastards. 

The Navy picked "a beach landing ship that the Marine Corps have long said is a vital component to its plan for a 21st Century island hopping campaign." Island hopping isolated and smashed enemy strongholds. What the Marines plan now is better called island scurrying. Bold move, Cotton ...

Turkey lacks the power to carry out Erdogan's imperial ambitions. The author notes that Turkey could destroy Assad's regime but it has not stabilized Syria after. How can Turkey aim at more distant horizons?

Is America losing its Thailand ally to China's influence? How will India react?

People forget these are victims of settler-colonialism: "On this Christmas Day, let us spare a thought for the plight of Middle Eastern Christians, arguably the most endangered religious minority in today’s world." The Middle East was once the heart of Christianity until Islam's conquest and ethnic cleansing. 

I don't believe North Korea's large nuclear submarine will last long in a shooting war. It's not even that large for a SSBN.

Recalling the 1894 Sino-Japanese War. Does modern China think it can repeat Japan's signal victory? Or does it worry it is still the empire that lost to a modern Westernized state? If China believes both, Russia should beware. 

Fingers crossed: "Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an immediate ceasefire following weeks of border clashes[.]" 

Can Ukraine dominate the river? "Ukraine is expanding its uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attacks to hit Russian targets on the Dnipro River and its tributaries." I'll ask again: "I wonder if Ukraine's more capable USVs will be important for crossing the Dnipro River.  

Russia: "Russian efforts to reform and upgrade their drone operations have paid off. This year Russia is sending nearly ten times the number of drones against Ukrainian targets than they did last year." Ground-based air defenses are insufficient for the new threat.

Russia exploits AI for their extensive online propaganda campaign. 

Ukraine uses small drones in combined arms operations: "They are a key force multiplier for Ukraine, yet they assist Ukrainian forces in tandem with conventional infantry and armour tactics, evolved for the deadly Ukrainian battlefield." Yes. And expanded combined arms lessons for America will be different. 

I missed this story about Venezuela's Margarita Island: "Hezbollah’s most important base of operations in the Western Hemisphere, strengthened by Iran’s growing footprint and the Maduro regime’s protection." Landing Marines there could support a number of objectives short of invasion and occupation. 

Restoring Army Air Defense

The ability of infantry to defeat small drones with their personal weapons for last-ditch defense in a layered defense is pretty much my ideal world to avoid burdening troops with extra gear.

This Army effort within a broader attempt to build defenses against drones seems ideal for small infantry units at the tip of the spear:

An “aim assistant” from Zeromark helps soldiers shoot down drones with bullets—rather than with lasers that are still under development or jammers that don’t work against autonomous drones.

I've long been concerned about burdening Army close combat forces with the responsibility for drone defense. Much as they rely on combined arms to provide primary defense against armor, infantry, or helicopters*--save for limited capabilities when they are on their own at the moment--I wanted those units to rely on fighter drone coverage for drone swarm defense (see my Army article). Having full responsibility for all threats distracts from primary close combat missions.

The Army needs dedicated air defense units able to defeat drones in the theater from bases to the front. 

But if the tip of the spear's basic weapons for their primary mission can be used to kill small drones, that's ideal. 

And "aim assistant" leading to self-aiming will enhance primary mission skills if the Army and Marines exploit that aiming revolution (see my USNI Blog article).

*Armor needs infantry and air defense to defeat infantry and helicopters; infantry needs armor and air defense to defeat armor and helicopters, for example. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

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NOTE: Marine Corps photo.

China's Hybrid Carrier

Is Sichuan a new type of amphibious warfare platform for China or a drone carrier? 

China's new amphibious warfare ship is large and different:

The ability of the class to support large-scale UAV operations, alongside traditional amphibious assault ship roles, was a key capability, according to Kandlikar Venkatesh, defence analyst at GlobalData.

“With the reported electromagnetically powered catapult to support an air wing, the 076 could handle heavier UCAVs such as those used for ISR, strike support, and electronic warfare,” Venkatesh stated. ...

“Type 076 also complicates Taiwan’s defensive plan. It gives China a way to keep ISR and targeting coverage over the strait and around potential landing zones even if access to carriers or mainland aviation is disrupted,” Venkatesh said.

This vessel is too large to be a real CVE that disperses naval aviation with drones. It seems more like the America class that is a large amphibious warfare ship with a backup light carrier role.

I have to wonder if the Sichuan tries to do too much.

And I must comment on this claim, "An amphibious assault is the only way that China could successfully seize the island by force." The only way? It is a major way to deposit grains of sand on Taiwan to build a beachhead. But that is not the only way. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Image of Sichuan from the article.

Dig In and Hold On at the Front

Small European NATO states are too small to build combined arms military capabilities. Should they specialize in holding their ground? 

Should eastern European countries facing Russia focus on positional defense of their homeland, waiting for the cavalry from the rest of NATO? 

Small frontline countries should become a first layer of defense, focusing their entire defense ecosystem on positional defense. These countries should completely dismantle their current military formations and recreate them with a sole focus on positional defense. Their spending of 5 percent of GDP should focus on infrastructural preparation and fortification of the potential battlefield, both in a physical and virtual sense, including the construction of obstacles, strongpoints, and modern defensive positions. Further investment should be made in camouflage and deception capabilities, deployment of land-, air-, and space-based sensors, early warning systems, antiarmor capabilities, long-range artillery, land, air, and sea drones, and other capabilities that support the effective execution of positional defense. Military formations should be redesigned, and purpose-built for positional defense. 

I'd add in the ability to leave stay-behind forces as an invader advances. But armored vehicles have a role in local counter-attacks and as a reserve for bolstering defenses, no? So I'm not sure how specialized a positional role should be. And who does ground-based air defense?

The suggestion is intriguing. But it only really applies to the small Baltic States right now rather than all small NATO states. 

I had a suggestion for incorporating non-border small armies into U.S.-led combined arms brigades in Army magazine.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo of American infantry under fire in World War II.

Aiming High For a Future Space Force Vessel

Just how high above the clouds could the X-65 design "fly"? 

Hmm:

An experimental DARPA plane that would steer using bursts of air is expected to have its first flight in late 2027, more than two years later than originally planned, after the program was paused and restructured.

The unmanned X-65, being built by Boeing subsidiary Aurora Flight Sciences as part of a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program, is designed to test a concept called “active flow control” to steer an aircraft.

Could that concept be adapted for space flight in the Earth-Moon system? Is the X-37 providing experience in getting to that capability?

And it sure would help to escort Santa on his global mission through potentially hostile skies. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Illustration from the article. 

Germany Notices It Has an Enemy

Even guilt-ridden and pacifistic Germany committed to the Euro-Disney view of Europe as a post-conflict sanctuary where peace is achieved with 10,000 cheese regulations has decided it needs a real military.

Sh*t got real: 

This year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to build Europe’s strongest army – a tall order for a country whose military has undergone years of neglect.

The coalition government is hoping a new bill agreed upon last week will help make this a reality, bolstering Germany’s forces in the face of the perceived threat from Russia and a significant shift in US foreign policy.

The sweeping new reforms will see Germany attempt to boost its numbers to 260,000 soldiers, up from around 180,000 currently, in addition to an extra 200,000 reservists, by 2035.

For Germany, defending itself has been a wild ride. And it isn't over.

Bravo, Putin. Truly impressive. 

Strategery. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Needs a Buffer Zone

If a ceasefire in the Winter War of 2022 is accomplished, Ukraine needs a buffer zone large enough to prevent Russia from using "take and talk" tactics to nibble away at Ukrainian territory. The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe could be a template to protect Ukraine and provide a fig leaf for Russia about NATO "retreat" that conceals a Russian pivot east.

The war goes on. Ukraine inflicts disproportionate casualties on the Russians who persist in slowly advancing. Russia hopes to freeze Ukrainians with aerial bombardment and Ukraine seeks to throttle Russia's offensive with their own aerial offensive. The shiny object in the deadly grind was Ukraine attacking a Russian Kilo submarine in a Russian Black Sea port, apparently with a suicide UUV. It is unclear how much the sub was damaged.

America participated in talks with contributions to terms of post-war security guarantees for Ukraine: 

According to Zelenskyy and Ukrainian officials, the discussions in Berlin focused on a package of five documents that would underpin an eventual peace deal, several of which are dedicated to long‑term security guarantees for Ukraine.

Russia won't accept that. And even if they are really desperate enough to pretend to accept that, we cannot become confused by that outcome. It is not enough to end the war. Russia has to be pointed away from Ukraine and NATO.

Getting a ceasefire without setting Ukraine up for the killing blow as Russia reloads and resumes the war from advanced positions inside its Ukrainian conquests is the problem. We should insist on a new Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

That treaty limited troops and weapons in Europe to eliminate the chance of a "bolt from the blue" offensive. Having enough troops to go to war would require detectable large-scale ground force movement. The original agreement limited armaments within a geographic region:

The CFE Treaty set equal ceilings for each bloc (NATO and the Warsaw Treaty Organization), from the Atlantic to the Urals, on key armaments essential for conducting surprise attacks and initiating large-scale offensive operations. 

In addition:

To further limit the readiness of armed forces, the treaty set equal ceilings on equipment that could be deployed with active units. Other ground equipment had to be place in designated permanent storage sites. 

And:

The treaty further limited the proportion of armaments that could be held by any one country in Europe to about one-third of the total for all countries in Europe – the "sufficiency" rule.

All sea-based Naval forces were excluded from CFE Treaty accountability.

Further sub-limits addressed sensitive regions:

In addition to limits on the number of armaments in each category on each side, the treaty included regional limits intended to prevent destabilizing force concentrations of ground equipment. 

I think the new geographic scope for active duty ground troops should be from the new, NATO state territory bordering or near Russia and Ukraine to Russia's Ural Mountains. This has advantages for NATO states, Ukraine, and Russia:

• Nobody in "old" NATO wants to deploy many troops east. This means they don't have to. 
• Putin could claim this troop limitation amounts to "rolling back" NATO to protect Russia. 
• Regional limits could offer reassurance for Russia in Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg, Transnistria, and Crimea; Ukraine could get reassurances in specific regions to protect Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa, for example; and European NATO could have reassurances about limits on Russia's military presence in Belarus, for example.
• Russian security and puppet forces in occupied Ukraine would be limited to non-combat ground forces. 
• NATO would have limited "outside" forces in the east; but could instead focus on the logistics infrastructure to move and host reinforcements from old NATO countries in a crisis--which Russia already has on their side of the line.
• America gets justification for maintaining a limited role in NATO in order to achieve American objectives in Europe. 
• By pushing Russia's forces east, it implicitly allows Russia to pivot east to face China without explicitly naming China as the real threat. Surely Russia wants its deepening humiliation in the east to end.
• And with more Russian troops weighted to the east, Russia gains the ability to attract allies to counter China.

And really, this deployment would broadly reflect what happened in 2021 as Russia prepared to invade in 2022. Russia needed time to scrape up troops from all of Russia to invade. Yes, it should be more difficult for Russia under this type of agreement. But that is its purpose. And again, it could be spun by Moscow as validating their conquests, rolling back NATO, and preventing NATO from being a threat to Russia. Plus a justification for moving troops closer to China, where they are needed.

I'm not sure how this would affect a European monitoring force in Ukraine. But it probably means that to the relief of Europeans it will be smaller and lighter, especially on the ground. A provision to allow NATO to send more forces east to match any Russian troops sent west (or vice versa, I suppose) should be part of the deal. 

If Russia lies about NATO moves to justify moving troops west, NATO would know if Russia is lying and could--if it chooses not to ignore the deployments--declare Russia is violating the agreement and take steps to beef up NATO forces in the east and reinforce the Ukrainians.

Yet Russia may be relieved to have an excuse to treat European Russia as a safe rear area in order to focus on blunting Chinese influence in Central Asia and getting a firmer grip on its Far East territories taken from China in the 19th century that China no doubt covets. 

Over time, Russia may get used to friendlier relations with the West. But if not, it will take time for Russia to pose a threat to Ukraine and NATO. As long as the West has the will to act on Russian violations. But that has long been a problem.

UPDATE (Tuesday): The European Union provided Ukraine with a financial buffer (tip to Instapundit):

The loans are likely to provide enough support for the Ukrainians to continue their fight for another year or more. And perhaps just as significant, they represent a rare example of European states acting in their own interests without any outsourcing to Washington. 

The loan is zero-interest and backed by frozen Russian assets or Russian reparations for invading Ukraine. It will be interesting to see if Ukraine uses some of that loan to buy American weapons.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine is going to need a bigger boat buffer:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would be willing to pull troops out of the eastern region of Donetsk and create a demilitarized free economic zone as part of a potential peace deal, provided Russia took similar steps to withdraw from areas it controls. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

NOTE: I made the map with mapchart.net. Although the map extends Russia in Europe beyond the Ural mountain eastern boundary of a buffer zone, as near as I can tell.