Blockading China is Not a Cost-Free Silver Bullet

If America and China go to war, America will no doubt attempt to blockade China. I frequently see commentary that America could collapse China with a blockade without any other military action. I doubt that is true, certainly not in any reasonably rapid time line. But nobody really talks about the effects of a long war on America. Would cutting off China be just as bad for America?

That's not encouraging:

If China forces a confrontation over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory, the United States will need to respond decisively: The implications are enormous, potentially including a global economic crisis far worse than the shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Right now, America isn’t ready.

As a report from a House panel concluded last year: “The United States lacks a contingency plan for the economic and financial impacts of conflict” with China.

Even aside from the question of how long China could fight a war under American-organized blockade--and Germany's ability to cope (that's "cope" and not "thrive") for nearly four years of fighting until its army was defeated on the Western Front under a near-total British blockade is not encouraging (and add in Russia under lesser sanctions, although even that is undermining Russia's ability to wage war notwithstanding Putin's Potemkin Facade)--cutting China off from the world also cuts off the world off from China.

Before China industrialized, blockading China was almost irrelevant to the rest of the world. Now that China is fully integrated into the global supply chain, cutting off China would harm America and the rest of the world, too. 

Silver bullets never work out.

And tip to Instapundit for the Potemkin Facade link.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing. It isn't quite what I wanted, but it's good enough for blogging work!

The Hypersonic Missile Race Keeps Up With the Joneses

China and Russia are pushing hypersonic missile development. America is responding.

Faster: 

The Army and Navy’s latest all-up round (AUR) test of the jointly developed Common Hypersonic Glide Body system has been deemed a success, putting the services one step closer to fielding ground- and sea-launched hypersonic weapons.

The Navy is testing hypersonic missiles on its truncated Zumwalt class of destroyers.

Hypersonic missiles can certainly be useful. But they are over-hyped. Much cheaper missiles work for most situations:

Many claims regarding the purported advantages of hypersonic weapons are false. These missiles are, in reality, an old technology with a massive price tag and few meaningful advantages over existing ballistic missiles.

And these kinds of expensive, advanced weapons won't be in the arsenal for long.

Still, China's entry into this class of weapon is more significant despite lack of numbers because it is a fractional orbit system. What targets would our missiles be for?

UPDATE: Timely news:

The U.S. Navy announced that the USS Lyndon B. Johnson (DDG-1002) dry-docked at Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Pascagoula Shipyard in Mississippi last Sunday to begin the integration process for Conventional Prompt Strike, making the Zumwalt-class destroyer the second vessel to receive the conventional hypersonic missiles. 

UPDATE: More timely news:

USS Zumwalt (DDG-1000) is back in the water after the installation of four missile tubes that will eventually carry the Conventional Prompt Strike weapon[.]

UPDATE: When it rains, it pours at high velocity. More on preparations for Zumwalt's coming missile tests.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: The photo is a DOD photo from the article.

HTS Brings Enemies into Its Tent

Can the Sunni HTS constellation of fighters absorb hostile military formations without peril? American experience in Iraq has some lessons.

HTS would like to atomize armed factions and dilute them across a new Syrian military. An armed faction within Syria wants to be accepted as is into the Syrian military structure. ISW thinks HTS will need to follow a different path:

A Southern Operations Room (SOR) spokesperson stated that the SOR seeks to integrate into the new Syrian army as a “pre-organized entity.” The spokesperson, Naseem Abu Orra, told AFP on January 8 that the SOR opposes HTS leader and interim head of state Ahmed al Shara’s plan to disarm and dissolve armed groups into the new Syrian armed forces. Orra, like many commanders in the Southern Operations Room, was a Syrian opposition commander who later reconciled with the regime and then, as the Assad regime fell, joined the SOR. Orra said that the SOR would prefer to join the HTS-led Defense Ministry as a “pre-organized entity” with its own weapons and heavy equipment. CTP-ISW has previously assessed that HTS will likely absorb the various armed groups and functionally reflag them as new Syrian army units to ameliorate concerns about losing power among local leaders. HTS has not yet presented a coherent plan for how it will structure the future armed forces.

Doing this is risky. I know a lot of people claim America erred in de-Baaathification and disbanding the Iraqi army. I strongly disagree with the idea we could have used the Baathists or that keeping Saddam's army was wise--or even possible.

My view was that disbanding it was a pure formality since it disintegrated. It wasn't there to retain. My assumption was that we were trying to get some commanders to defect with their units, but that did not happen.

Second, given the role of the army in repressing the Shias and Kurds, we had to get rid of the Baathist-led army to end the rumors that we weren't liberating Iraq but just trying to put in our own Sunni Arab strongman.

Finally, the events of spring 2004 showed why it was good we did not have the old army around. The new Iraqi security forces broke apart (about half) in the dual jihadi/Sadrist offensive. Can you imagine what would have happened if "former" Baathist-led units were faced with the same situation? They would have defected and fought us. It would have been our own Sepoy Mutiny right there.

Indeed, ISW notes a recent development in Iraq that is a warning flag for this method of dealing with living "ex-enemies":

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly agreed to preserve the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, Kataib Hezbollah, and Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada all control brigades in the PMF. Khamenei opposes dissolving the PMF outright but may support the integration of the PMF into the Iraqi armed forces. The Iraqi federal government could reflag PMF brigades as new units, which would largely retain the units’ composition and structure. Integrating the PMF and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias into the Iraqi security establishment would more entrench the militias into the Iraqi security sector more thoroughly, which would enable deeper Iranian infiltration.

Maybe the Iraqis think they control this now that Iran is weakened. But I don't think HTS can say that yet for far-flung former enemies. You need time to slowly replace or attract the recently enemy commanders to your side if you simply "re-flagging" enemy units as your units. And until then you need to monitor those leaders very closely for signs of disloyalty--and pray those units are not tested in heavy combat against "former" comrades before loyalty can be shifted to your side.

Will HTS risk this path of relying on defeated enemies who may not want to stay defeated?

UPDATE: ISW reports that HTS is attacking with significant firepower small pockets of Assad loyalist-led active resistance in the west:

The organization, coordination, size, and spread of these opposition groups do not currently appear to strain HTS-led forces‘ bandwidth. An increase in pro-Assad activity coupled with an ISIS resurgence in HTS-held areas would very likely present HTS with a bandwidth problem, however, and thus impede future efforts to suppress dissent.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Isolating the Taiwan Strait

China's large maneuvers around Taiwan late last year could reveal China's intention to isolate the Taiwan Strait. I think that is likely, but we should not count on that limitation.

This seems to be a reasonable conclusion:

Taiwan’s MND assessed that the military actions aimed not only at rehearsing a comprehensive blockade of Taiwan but also at extending the PLA’s operational reach, with a broader objective of “internalizing” the Taiwan Strait. This aligns with the PLA’s operational principle of “training where battles are fought.”

"Internalizing" the Taiwan Strait as China's territorial waters fits with my view on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan that China would want to portray Taiwan as an internal matter rather than immediately internationalize the war by striking American and/or Japanese bases in the region to de-fang a potential Western response. 

I don't know whether a Western counter-blockade of China could succeed soon enough to matter--or even succeed at all. But I think China would prefer not to test their resilience with the threats of internal unrest and possibly nuclear escalation if the CCP feels unrest threatens its power. So China will invade rather than only blockade.

But of course, we must not count on China ignoring our forces. Especially with forward forces deployed in too few bases. I'd rather keep our best forces out of an enemy's reach to avoid tempting them to strike first.

UPDATE: I made a couple short additions to the third paragraph to clarify my meaning. And added a link. Sorry.

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The Winter War of 2022 Undermines Russian Society

Russia is destroying the foundations of society to keep its bloody invasion of Ukraine going just a little bit longer behind a facade of indifference to the costs. It is seemingly a race between the collapse of the Russian state or regime on the one hand, and breaking Ukraine's defenses to end that growing pressure on the other.

The war goes on. The casualties and Russia's slow ground crawl are the constant background noise. The major new feature seems to be Ukraine's increasing capability to strike Russian logistics deeper inside Russia.

Putin is destroying the empire to expand it:

According to The New York Times, Russians suspected of a crime will now see their pending charges disappear if they sign up to join the war: “Local papers nationwide are full of cases of suspected murderers, rapists and thieves who are headed off to war after signing contracts instead of facing trial.” Officials jailed for corruption are being offered amnesty and debtors are having their debts forgiven for agreeing to deploy in a war that has killed or wounded an estimated 600,000 Russian troops.

These new and exploitative efforts are a reminder that while Russia has made significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the past year, its efforts to sustain its high-casualty war of aggression, where soldiers are often treated as expendable, are not without serious obstacles. It also reflects how Moscow’s commitment to the war is reshaping and militarizing Russian society in ways that could have far-reaching effects beyond the war.

This "solution" to the problem of shoving fresh cogs into the killing machine is astounding. The Russian state is breaking down societal compacts of justice and contracts. How does a society survive when it deliberately takes a sledgehammer to the pillars of protecting the people from criminals and economic growth by protecting lenders?

Especially when the Russian state risks a Time of Troubles 2.0 by encouraging private and sub-national security forces that might decide they must protect the people--and themselves--by restoring those pillars of society.

And what of the people? Back to the initial article:

According to Timothy Frye, a political scientist at Columbia University, the general consensus among researchers who follow public opinion on the war in Russia is that some 15% to 20% of Russians are enthusiastic about the war, about 10% are wholly opposed, and most everyone else falls in between. “They don’t want to lose the war, but they’re not willing to sacrifice to stop the war,” Frye told me. “They’re also not willing to volunteer and encourage people to go to the front in some kind of wave of organic patriotism.” Frye also said polling shows that a majority of Russians oppose general conscription, and that any attempt to impose it could spark resistance. Thus the reliance on what he called more “hidden forms of mobilization.”

How will Russians react to a general conscription of unwilling civilians for the war when these civilians know they are doomed at the front and that they can't even count on their government to protect their families from the most heinous crimes when they are gone? Or to even punish the criminals inflicting such heinous acts on their loved ones? 

How will they react after seeing Putin fail in Syria?

Syria’s army refused to fight in late 2024 and the same thing could happen in Russia, Ivashov has warned. “Our regime is no more stable than others that have been overthrown. Ours could fall as suddenly as Assad’s,” he said. “I see no grounds for optimism.”

Ivanashov is a Russian nationalist who, like Putin, sees the fall of the USSR as a tragedy; but sees the invasion of Ukraine as a huge mistake.

Despite potential fault lines in his military and society, Putin maintains the facade of confidence by refusing to moderate his conquest demands despite words that imply he is "reasonable" in his conquest demands during negotiations:

The Financial Times (FT) reported on January 10, citing a former senior Kremlin official and another source who has discussed this topic with Putin, that Putin will maintain his pre-war demands of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and forcing NATO to withdraw from deployments in Eastern Europe in any such talks by "chang[ing] the rules" of the international system to ensure that there are "no threats to Russia," a callback to his December 2021 ultimatum to the United States ahead of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin claims he wants negotiations "without preconditions" but he has many that have nothing to do with the brutal war he started and everything to do with weakening NATO and making the Soviet Union's former empire vulnerable to reconquest.

Future historians may trace the Time of Troubles 2.0 to Putin's bizarre war on Ukraine and reality.

Or, if the West abandons Ukraine, future historians may marvel at how the West helped Putin the Great snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 

UPDATE (Monday): Relevant and timely thoughts:

Only last month we witnessed the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Syria. Rulers in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, Pyongyang, Havana and elsewhere nervously understand the Hemingway rule, even if they have never read him.

Perhaps there is nervousness in Brussels, too, eh?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War and the related Syria events in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

Nobody there is even nominated for Queen of the Victim Prom: "Rebel forces backed by Rwanda have captured the town of Masisi in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to various reports." So the sainted international community won't bestow Palestinian-level focus and aid upon them.

Good: "A major Ukrainian metal and mining company that makes so-called cope cages for the country’s tanks and fighting vehicles says it has installed a new armor protection system on at least one of Ukraine’s operational high-end air defense systems[.]" In Vietnam we used vehicle- and ground-based RPG screens.

Sea power: "The Turkish navy has begun the new year by announcing the construction of three warships based on domestic designs: a submarine, an aircraft carrier and the lead ship of the highly anticipated TF-2000 air-defense destroyer series." A quasi-empire needs a fleet.

They sure do try: "Russia has abandoned its 29-ton twin engine Su-57 Felon project after only 32 prototype and pre-production aircraft were built. This was another effort to build a stealth fighter to match the American F-22 and F-35." The Su-75 Plan B isn't likely to move into production.

Ukraine's aerial drones extend their reach: "The longer range drones enable Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia. These attacks now include drones dropping guided bombs from one kilometer altitude. This way the bombs can glide for long distances and strike Russian targets unexpectedly."

Trump must avoid getting sucked into the Winter War of 2022. Fair enough. But Trump must also avoid getting sucked into enabling--by excusing or even welcoming it--Russia's conquest of Ukraine. 

Where the Air Force fears to tread: "The primary role of the MDACS is to defend stationary and semi-stationary positions [using hypersonic shells] from attacks by drones, cruise missiles, aircraft, and helicopters."

Sadly, Britain is only deploying the division headquarters for a NATO exercise. My dream of the British Army of the Vistula remains just that. 

Britain counts on distance from Russia and allies in the way: "Britain’s government is gambling that allies care more about its defence than it does. An odd definition of leadership." I feel your pain, buddy. Dress it up as "leading from behind" but you only fool yourself.

CDR Salamander highlights China's D+0 cyber capabilities against the West. I noted this 20 years ago: "The Chinese should also initiate cyberwarfare against Taiwan on a massive and continuing scale and small attacks against the US, Japan, and European countries that end within a few hours [as a warning]."

Trudeau has resigned as leader of his party, but because of the parliamentary system will remain prime minister until a replacement is chosen. He is a special sort of awful. Best wishes to our neighbor and ally going forward.

Yeah: "Some seem to think that Trump’s return is the spur Europe needs to finally stand on its own two feet. But they need to recognise, as was the case during the Second World War and the Cold War, that only a strong alliance between Europe and the US offers any hope of resisting [a rising China-centric axis.]"

The last tango at sea: "For years, A-10s have been patrolling over the Persian Gulf as part of a multinational maritime security initiative." Last month I noted a similar deployment to the Philippines. While I'm a fan of the A-10, my real concern is the loss of the skill set that made the A-10 effective.

This is weird and disturbing: "A standoff between rival government forces outside the presidential compound in South Korea has been startling even for those used to the country’s famously rough and tumble politics."

New York Army National Guard troops are heading to Djibouti; and Pennsylvania Army National Guard troops are heading to Iraq. The use of the National Guard as an operational reserve rather than a strategic reserve continues.

How many Americans still believe Russia had nothing to do with starting the Korean War? "[In] the 1990s, the Russian government released telegrams sent before 1960, by Russian and North Korean leaders, making it clear that Russia wanted the invasion, and that North Korea duly carried it out."

If the campaign against the Houthi is testing the ability of the systems and crews in Navy Combat Information Centers that wield a ship's combat capabilities, how will they fight a war against China? But perhaps then the first line of ship defense would be destroying the enemy missile launchers.

They should have been executed as unlawful combatants long ago: "The Pentagon said Monday it had transferred 11 Yemeni men to Oman this week after holding them for more than two decades without charge at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba."

The war on [Islamist] terror is not over: "F-16s and F-15s carried out airstrikes against ISIS fighters operating in Iraq’s Hamrin Mountains. U.S. Air Force A-10s, which were called in to support ground forces, were successful in killing Islamic State militants fighting in the cave, the command said."

China wages war on Taiwan: "A Chinese-owned cargo ship suspected of damaging a subsea telecoms cable off Taiwan has stopped transmitting its location on the high seas, Taiwan's coast guard said Tuesday." It's not the explodey sort, but it's war. 

I let my membership lapse after seeing how left-wing it was at the 1991 AHA national convention. Skip forward to today: "The American Historical Association passed a resolution condemning Israel and proceeded to break out in chants of 'free, free Palestine' over the weekend." Tip to Instapundit. 

Why couldn't America reduce its military "aid" to Ukraine by having Europeans unable to produce the needed equipment purchase a portion of American military equipment, ammunition, and assistance for Ukraine? Total military assistance from America wouldn't change--just the burden of paying for it.

North Korea test fired an intermediate range ballistic missile.

Just going to note that the Persian Gulf is also called the Arabian Gulf; part of the South China Sea is also called the West Philippine Sea; and the Sea of Japan is also called the East Sea. Disputes are not uncommon. Also, a name does not convey ownership. Calm down.

To resist Russia's invasion, America and its allies have given Ukraine "more than $126 billion in weapons and military training and assistance." America has provided $66 billion of that.

The war on terror continues: "U.S. forces helped evacuate Somali troops from harm’s way during a recent operation against insurgents that resulted in the deaths of 10 militants from al-Shabab, U.S. Africa Command said Tuesday."

Drones firing drones: "Ukraine has claimed that it’s successfully used uncrewed surface vessels (USV), better known as drone boats, to launch aerial drones against Russian targets for the first time." 

Perhaps Hezbollah is weakened enough to make this not futile: "The Biden administration in its final days is shifting more than $100 million in military aid from Israel and Egypt to Lebanon as it tries to bolster a ceasefire agreement it helped mediate between Israel and Hezbollah."

A line in the sea: "The United Kingdom is leading a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and NATO effort to track Russian 'Shadow Fleet' vessels in Northern European waters, in real time, to protect critical undersea infrastructure, the United Kingdom’s defense minister announced Monday." 

That seems less than optimal: "Taiwan began three days of military drills on Tuesday as concerns rose over potential cuts to the defense budget due to legislative wrangling between the island’s two major political parties." The article highlights criticism of Taiwan's new Abrams tanks. I vigorously dissent.

The Australian Roadrunner suicide drone designed to take down aircraft, helicopters, and other drones. American special forces have purchased it. Huh.

Why isn't Britain being condemned by global human rights groups and pursued by the International Criminal Court for this failure to protect so many victims? I remain dumbfounded that feminists aren't the most committed anti-Islamist warriors. Tip to Instapundit.

If you can't put boots on the islands China wants, China will take them: "Navies across the Asia-Pacific region are boosting amphibious capabilities in an effort to protect their complex coastlines, as China continues its flex its military muscle in the region."

Your moment of cat zen:

Service in the Army did not radicalize Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the New Orleans terrorist. But that belief marinating in anti-military circles surfaces so easily. How fun! Now do Islam, about which the default view here is always "why do they hate us", as if we did something to provoke the murderous hate. 

China's recent attacks around Taiwan and in the Baltic Sea to destroy underwater conduits either indicates China is not as vulnerable to losing use of the seas or indicates the Chinese fear no retaliation, or indicates the Chinese are just being self-destructive. Perhaps an Alignment of Upheaval right now.

Buh bye: "Moscow no longer appears to have any attack submarines in the Mediterranean Sea after NATO forces spotted its last known submarine leaving the region last week." That's for the best, really. Russia's flotilla would lead a short but exciting life in a war with NATO.

Milley authorized the use of directed-energy weapons against rioters in June 2020 Washington, D.C. unrest. This is not a scandal. I may not like Milley much, but these less-lethal weapons (don't call them non-lethal) can send rioters running for home without the casualties of rifle fire or batons. Via Instapundit.

Blowback: "Finnish President Alexander Stubb will host a summit in Helsinki of the NATO countries that border the Baltic Sea together with Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal next Tuesday." Putin is Russia's worst enemy.

Turkey wants official United Nations recognition of the portion of Cyprus that Turkey took over in 1974, and which declared its independence in 1983.

Ah, a quarter century of the F**k-Up Fairy dragging Russia into the abyss! 

Ef that: "The objective should not be the total defeat of Russia—a nuclear-armed state—but its transformation into a pivot power that seeks to balance its interests between Washington and Beijing." Beat Russia down with the Clue Bat until it accepts it's smarter to defend their Far East than attack NATO.

Turkey may invade Syria: "Turkish efforts to interdict SDF supplies may be a precursor to a wider operation, especially if these interdiction strikes attempt to strike deeper behind the front line." The Turkish foreign minister said Turkey would attack Kurdish units if they don't let HTS absorb them.

Security: "Since the 1940s, the Pentagon has valued Greenland, which serves as a gateway to the Arctic. During the Cold War, the military had more than 10,000 troops in its territory, which hosts Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base." China claims the fake status of a "near-Arctic" state.

How China's Great Firewall cracked during the Covid-19 lockdowns. Also, Russian and Chinese propaganda efforts.

But counter-measures are still weak: "Starting in 2023 the proportion of casualties inflicted by drones in the Ukraine war soared to more than those inflicted by artillery, and in 2024 an outright majority of all casualties have been inflicted by drones." Am I wrong about how FPV drones will eventually fit in?'

The cheese-eating surrender monkeys go all Patton on a fake threat: "French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot suggested moves on [Greenland] would be an attack on the European Union." Guess what threat the French ignore? And FFS there will be no American Anschluss with any unwilling party.

The Burke is a mature and successful design--but of course: "The U.S. Navy’s Flight III Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) class destroyers are facing cost increases and delays, jumping from an average of $2.1 billion per ship to $2.5 billion per hull, with even steeper cost increases coming in the future[.]" Eh, it'll be fine! 

For no particular reason, let's review who can wage war under our Constitution. Remember that prior to Hitler declaring war on America that America waged an undeclared "gray zone" naval war on Germany in the Atlantic. So it isn't as clear as you may believe.

True: "The year 2027 is just a year. We should remain watchful as it approaches, lest the prophets of automatic warfare prove correct, but we should neither relax our guard in the meantime nor resign ourselves to a certain clash of arms." And timely.

Europeans are our friends. The European Union is not: "Rattled by the rise of populism, and their authority rotting from within, Europe’s supposedly ‘sensible’, self-described ‘centrist’ leaders have resorted to ever-more authoritarian means to keep their grip on power." A reason for America to lead.

Where's the global human rights "community" that cares so much more than you or I do? #MeToo #NotYou. Tip to Instapundit.

Defending freedom of navigation: "[Navy] forces, which were not identified, struck two Houthi underground Advanced Conventional Weapon storage facilities in Yemen, according to the Wednesday news release."

I have little doubt these are intended to help Finland if Russia invades Sweden's ally: "Sweden is purchasing 44 new German Leopard 2 A8 main battle tanks and plans to modernize its existing fleet of 66 Leopard 2 tanks as well as other combat vehicles in its military arsenal[.]" 

In harm's way: "Taiwan on Thursday demonstrated its sea defenses against a potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing, part of a multitiered strategy to deter an invasion from the mainland." 

Don't pretend the war on terror is over because we "ended" the Afghanistan campaign (by losing it, to be clear): "The Islamic State has evolved and expanded globally since the territorial defeat of IS in Iraq and Syria in 2019, enabling the organization to continue to orchestrate and inspire attacks on the West."

Fingers crossed: "As Côte d’Ivoire’s relations with its former colonial master have continued to deteriorate, culminating with last week’s decision to expel the 600 French troops in the country, the United States has increasingly stepped into the breach." The region needs resilience to kill jihadis.

Isn't this a big Chinese middle finger to Russia? "Serbian defense authorities announced that the Chinese-made FK-3 air defense systems are now in service with the Serbian Air Force, marking a success for Beijing[.]" Serbia should be cautious lest China declare it is a "near-Balkans" state.

We focus on a boat-load of cruise missiles, but the class has always has a special operations capability: "The U.S. Navy’s Ohio class guided missile submarine USS Michigan made notable use of uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUV) in the course of operations between October 2022 and January 2024[.]"

This seems like a no-brainer. Why is it delayed? "The U.S. Navy has long eyed a return to a cavernous former Royal Norwegian Navy base that could serve as a convenient support point for submarine operations in the Arctic." 

Well that's fun! "Several European leaders have cautioned Donald Trump against violating the sovereignty of other NATO allies across the continent, following comments by the U.S. president-elect that did not rule out using military force to annex Greenland’s territory." Now do Islamist fanatics. But that's not safe.

The race between Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonics on one side, and American SM-3 and ship-mounted Army Patriots on the other. China works hard to target our ships. Don't forget that breaking China's kill chain starts with destroying the missiles on the ground before they launch. 

Fingers crossed: "Donald Trump's media genius strikes again, this time calling national and international attention to two slowly developing but strategically treacherous threats to North America's military and economic security: [defending the Arctic and maintaining use of the Panama Canal.]" It sure got attention!

This is needed: "The U.S. Air Force’s F-15E Strike Eagle and F-15EX Eagle IIs are now set to be armed with the AGM-158C-1 LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile), allowing the Air Force’s assets to engage surface targets at sea." That gets TDR stamp of approval!

Corruption is a weapon: "The recent, high-profile case of Alice Guo—a former mayor accused of graft, money laundering, and espionage—shows how domestic corruption leaves the Philippines vulnerable to Chinese infiltration and subterfuge." 

Per the Pentagon, America is exploiting the sudden east Syria power vacuum: "When you saw the fall of Assad, you saw Russian assets further consolidate, which allowed U.S. Central Command to take actions in the Badiya desert and elsewhere where we hadn't previously done a significant amount of strikes[.]" 

A Taylor Swift super fan lacks resolve? "While Trudeau has made some noteworthy pronouncements about Canada’s role in the world, his actual record reveals a profound failure to safeguard Canadian sovereignty and support the Canadian Armed Forces." No! Way! There is a way forward. 

Putin said that if America takes over Greenland that it justifies Russian expansionism. LOL. Putin should worry about the precedent he is setting for Chinese claims on Russia's Far East. Putin is a moron clearly being guided by the F**k-Up Fairy.

Afghanistan faces a complex set up challenges in 2025? No, the challenge is pretty simple: the Taliban. And FFS, America shouldn't subsidize the Taliban rule. Let their new friends in Pakistan and China fund them.

Shut up, the European Union said: "Will the EU sacrifice the American market and estrange itself from its military defender for the sake of content moderation?" Of course it will. I firmly believe that without American influence--whether NATO or Musk--continental Europe will drift back to its autocratic history.

Good grief people, being not-Assad doesn't make the new Islamist rulers good guys. I suspect Europeans will reward HTS and the other jihadis as long as refugees don't flow from Syria into Europe.

Interesting: "Iran is increasing its military presence in Venezuela, with officials and personnel, with some members of the country's elite acquiring properties in the Latin American country and being offered political asylum should they eventually need it." If Iran goes down, will the open door for exile close?

Britain's Labor government sent volunteers to help Harris in the recent campaign. And I guess bad habits from impressing American sailors live on: "The UK government has tasked its 'Counter-Extremism' unit with investigating billionaire Elon Musk following his sharp criticism of Prime Minister Keir Starmer."

Stopping NATO, Nazis, and Satan himself wasn't enough reason to end business as usual: "The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine failed as a military effort but was successful at creating many new opportunities for corruption. This included Russians of all types." The cogs notice.

Cogs with doubts: "The war in Ukraine has cost the Russian military over a million soldiers dead, disabled or fled the country. Several million more military age men have left the country or gone into hiding while still in Russia. There are labor shortages everywhere." Employers help employees evade military service.

Trump's hyperbolic language certainly raised this vital issue: "Denmark acknowledged on Thursday it had long neglected the defence of Greenland, a vast and strategically important Arctic island, after President-elect Donald Trump said acquiring the Danish sovereign territory was vital for U.S. security."

The sainted international community doesn't care about those people because they aren't Palestinian terrorists: "More than 100,000 people have been displaced since the start of the year in eastern Congo as a result of a new rebel offensive, according to a United Nations report released Friday." 

Sh*t got real: "Germany's Bundeswehr will establish a major new land forces unit dedicated to securing critical infrastructure and key military facilities across the country, an army spokesman said on Saturday." It's a blend of active and reserve troops. 

The Philippines is upgrading two ports and an airfield in the Spratly Islands. Hopefully the Philippines defends them lest it is just upgrading a future conquest by China. 

Notwithstanding closer ties to China, China is the biggest sovereignty threat: "Indonesia will expand its existing defence partnerships and step up its handling of strategic issues impacting its sovereignty, including maritime security and the safety of sea passage and fisheries, its foreign minister said[.]"

I'm starting to think America should grant any family in Great Britain that includes young girls immediate refugee status based on a fear of imminent harm. Tip to Instapundit.

America's presence helps keep disputes limited to ballots and not bullets: "There are early indications that some Iraqi Sunni and Kurdish politicians are trying to build an alliance ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025. Such an alliance would challenge the Iranian-backed Shia parties[.]"

I never trust the media when it calls a European party "fascist" or "neo-Nazi" because a major success of the left has been to hide the fact that Hitler was a socialist. Remember, communism is the last stage of socialism building toward that withering away of the state and its gulags. A stage we've never seen. 

New French suicide drones to Ukraine and a review of how Ukraine uses French Caesar artillery pieces.

Combat fatigue (PTSD), desertions, and temporary AWOL in the Winter War of 2022 affect Ukrainians and Russians. Political fatigue affects nations supporting Ukraine. I will note that Russia might have more combat fatigue problems if more of their troops survived their tour of duty invading Ukraine.

Iraq still fights ISIL: "The Iraqi Army and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) launched an operation targeting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the Hamrin Mountains, Diyala Province. The Iraqi Air Force conducted an airstrike on January 10 that killed four ISIS members."

Iraq reinforces border defenses: "Iraqi security forces have extended the border wall between Iraq and Syria by 83 kilometers, increasing the total length of the wall to around 400 kilometers. Iraq seeks to extend the wall by another 215 kilometers." ISIL's revival could pave the way for Iranian influence.

If North Koreans knew, that will hurt Kim Jong Un: "The [North Korean] POW told Ukrainian authorities that he had undergone coordination training with Russian forces for only one week before deploying to combat and that he thought he was going to a training exercise in Russia, not to the war in Ukraine."

Human waves: "The Washington Post reported on January 11 that North Koreans fighting in Kursk Oblast are attacking in large groups with support from Russian artillery and drones, unlike Russian forces who usually move in smaller groups." To be fair, they aren't intended to return home.

For Want of a Nail, the Kingdom Was Lost

Advanced aircraft are worthless if peppered with shrapnel by much cheaper weapons. Why are cheaper counter-measures neglected?

We got used to having a sanctuary even that close to China: 

Chinese missile attacks on Air Force runways at bases in the Indo-Pacific region would severely limit U.S. military power in a future regional conflict, according to a report by military researchers made public Thursday.

Key U.S. air bases in Japan and elsewhere in the region until recently were safe havens from enemy attack and provided rapid power projection with airstrikes for more than three decades, the report by the Stimson Center said.

Rapid advances in Chinese missiles and aircraft put these bases in danger. But we haven't reacted. 

We need hardened aircraft shelters, air defenses, and rapid runway repair capabilities. And we need more bases rather than jamming units into few vulnerable bases to check that "pivot to Asia" box.

And as long as we're in the western Pacific neighborhood, I worry about strategic tunnel vision and our forward-deployed ships, too. 

UPDATE: More on the issue:

Pouring concrete to make hardened shelters for aircraft on the ground may not be as sexy as building next-generation fighter jets, but it may be just as important for the U.S. in a potential conflict with China, according to airpower scholars.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

"Robot Man" Won't Be a Thing

"Tank Man" who briefly slowed down the slaughter of pro-democracy protesters in Tienanmen Square by PLA troops in 1989 wouldn't stand a chance against robotic enforcers. The tank crews hesitated to kill an unarmed man. Would any man simply choose to stand in the way of robots without souls to trouble?

China has robot police prototypes out in the streets (tip to Instapundit):

Chinese robotics company Logon Technology unveiled the RT-G autonomous spherical robot in a "technological breakthrough" the other month.

And despite people believing it was all a bizarre marketing stunt, RT-G bots have actually been spotted the streets of China alongside human cops.

Footage shows one of the beast balls rolling round a city, carefully patrolling for any potential crime that could occur.

The spheres are designed to assist - and eventually replace humans - in dangerous environments and situations involving crime.

It is designed to be armed and to withstand blunt force blows.

There will be no "tank man" willing to stand up to killer robots programmed to maintain the Chinese Communist Party's monopoly of political power in China.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.