I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Surviving to Command and Control the Expanded Combined Arms Fight
In case you missed it on Substack: The World Moves Pretty Fast
In case you missed it on Substack: Wet Grains of Sand for a PLA Beachhead on Taiwan
In case you missed it on Substack: What the Iran-Iraq War Teaches About Restoring Mobile Warfare
Fingers crossed: "The primary justification for the B-21 is that it is hopefully more
affordable than the B-2 with much superior defensive and offensive
electronics." Don't forget the possible fighter variant.
I have no problem with a mil-to-mil hotline with China. But I reject familiarization mil-to-mil contacts.
Last week I noted this: "New tests of the U.S. nuclear weapons
system ordered up by President Donald Trump will not include nuclear
explosions, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday."
KEEP OUT: "U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth maintained Washington’s position on
Taiwan and stressed the defense of U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific
region during a meeting with Chinese Minister of National Defense Adm.
Dong Jun on Friday."
China and not Russia is our common foe: "U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was in Vietnam on Sunday,
reaffirming a partnership built on healing the scars of the Vietnam War
in a trip that will test whether Washington can reassure a vital but
wary partner." Russia supplies weapons to face China. And more?
The UN human rights chief can kiss our butt. The mounting human cost of letting those drug smugglers operate at sea freely is the real issue.
Attacking Venezuela likely requires Congressional consent. But what about this? "'potential targets' that were being looked at included 'ports and
airports controlled by the military that are allegedly used to traffic
drugs.'" That's a gray area. And could we declare the facilities free of Venezuelan control?
I don't believe a federal judge has this kind of power over the president's commander-in-chief role. I mean, Confederate governors would have said they had everything under control, eh?
This is business-as-usual for our military: "Dozens of U.S. military personnel arrived in Jamaica today to provide
humanitarian and disaster assistance after Hurricane Melissa tore
through the country."
I think the major capability of a cruiser over a destroyer is afloat command-and-control: "The Gettysburg is the second cruiser to take part in the operation, joining the USS Lake Erie."
Russia is using a cruise missile against Ukraine, which Russia developed in violation of the INF treaty, prompting America to withdrew from INF in 2019.
Huh: "Canada and the Philippines, both staunch critics of China’s increasingly
coercive actions in the disputed South China Sea, signed a key defense agreement on Sunday to boost combat drills and expand security alliances to deter aggression, officials said." That helps.
KEEP OUT: "American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force
designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enhance
alliance defense cooperation."
We're going to need China's Taiwan reassurances that last longer than Trump's term.
The new Russian "hedgehog" tank looks like a giant loofah. It protects against FPV drones. But seriously, wouldn't APFSDS rounds punch through that drone protection? And the turret is pointless in such adaptations.
Crisis? "Delays in building new Ford-class CVN nuclear-powered aircraft carrier
carriers means that, within a year, the U.S. Navy would have only ten
carriers rather than the usual eleven." Or opportunity?
The Air Force argues it needs more fighter planes. Increase availability rates, pilot training (for numbers and skills), ammunition reserves, and air base defenses to keep what they have flying and fighting.
The America-China trade war is a ceasefire to reload. Both America and China want to reduce trade dependence on the other. I think China's reliance on exports is more of a vulnerability than America's reliance on imports.
From the "Well, Duh" files: Iran on a Mission from God is already preparing for the next war.
Europe's attitude is lacking and its aptitude is fading: "The China of the Nineties had the attitude, but lacked the aptitude, and
sent its best students to Western universities to make up for it. The
US has both — aptitude and attitude — and will continue to be a dominant
global power for a long time to come."
Israel has the advantage over numerous jihadis around it. But for peace with jihadis, trust but verify.
Uh oh: "After years of managing crises that tested our foundations, across the
European Union, there’s a renewed sense of purpose: Europe is back, and
it means business." The European Parliament has objectives that do not represent the people of Europe.
Paging "Blackjack" Pershing: "The Trump administration has begun detailed planning for a new mission
to send American troops and intelligence officers into Mexico to target
drug cartels, according to two U.S. officials and two former senior U.S.
officials familiar with the effort." I really hope Mexico is onboard.
A British carrier task force sailed into Tokyo Bay: "During a single port visit, the United Kingdom showed that “Global Britain” is not a slogan but a policy—and that policy looks to the east, intentionally." Russia is the skunk at the global garden party.
I'm going to guess the puppy pack can only hunt close to shore in calm waters: "A flotilla of uncrewed "wolf pack" drone boats has successfully been used to escort warships in a Royal Navy and Army trial." At best it is a test of concept. And a reminder that unmanned systems are remotely manned systems.
More on the Detroit-area Islamist Halloween terrorism plot. Not long after 9/11 I read that American Moslems were mostly willing to turn in terrorists in their midst. I hope that is still true. Any group can have extremists. The key is whether the non-extremists tolerate or quietly celebrate the extremists.
Create a ruckus with ROKUS.
Russia and China have sold Georgia the rope by which Russia will tie Georgia to Russia. To be fair, the Georgian government wants that. FFS, our efforts were wasted. Tip to OPFOR Jopurnal.
I assume that scores will lead provinces to earn good scores at the expense of capabilities: "Russian provinces will henceforth be assigned a “dronification” score by
the country’s Ministry of Industry and Trade in an effort to boost the
development of unmanned aerial vehicles across all of Russia."
Indeed: "Army aviators face an existential crisis. They must find a meaningful
role on the sensor-saturated modern battlefield or retire from combat
entirely. The threat is not being shot down — it’s being benched." They need indirect fire capability. Which means a simple truck could do their job.
Russians and Ukrainians adapt fishing nets for route security in the face of FPV drone threats. Back to basics, eh?
Uh oh: "Belgium's defense minister expressed concern on Monday about a series of
unidentified drone flights over the weekend near a military base where
U.S. nuclear weapons are stored, saying they seem to be part of a spying
operation." Tip to Instapundit.
Can Integrated Deterrence be rebuilt without all the stupidity the original had? Well, fingers crossed. Because the original was nonsense.
To be fair, anything that Russia does aggressively short of nuclear weapons is deemed the mystical "hybrid war."
Russia launched another mothership for the Poseidon nuclear tsunami torpedo. LOL. Release the Kraken! I do wonder what the motherships are really for.
It is true that China's military still has major corruption problems. But that isn't a silver bullet solution to defense needs to stop China. Russia's corrupt military has inflicted a lot of damage in Europe, no?
A European threat to American free speech. Europe's desire for control isn't just a threat to Europeans. Nor is the threat just from Europeans (tip to Instapundit).
Excuse my skepticism, but I don't think international troops in Gaza will be willing to die to compel Hamas to disarm. Everyone will go through the motions and declare victory.
If America intends to send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine--with ground launchers that must be built--I assume the first time we know Ukraine has them is when something blows up deep inside Russia.
Pentagon: "it will take 'a variety of types of forces, concepts, and posture to
effectively deter and, if necessary, defeat a Chinese assault in the
First Island Chain' in the Asia-Pacific region." When we get that perfect plan, I always remember China has their own perfect plan, too.
In case Iran directs a missile and drone barrage that way instead of at Israel: "U.S. and Qatari forces at Al Udeid Air Base opened the Middle East’s
first bilateral combined command post for air defense this week[.]"
AUKUS also provides American and British SSNs a base in the Pacific: "A U.S. Navy fast-attack submarine is undergoing maintenance at an
Australian base where a multinational force of nuclear-powered boats may
be in position in just over a year[.]"
I really don't get the point of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile. It, unlike ballistic missiles, can be shot down by fighter planes and regular air defense assets. But sure, boast about it, Russia.
Great! Less to defend against Ukrainian deep strikes: "A high-ranking Russian lawmaker claims his government recently sent
Venezuela air defense systems and could provide ballistic and cruise
missiles in the future.[.]"
Sounds good: "South Korea pitched its submarines to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos for Manila’s ambitious naval modernization progra[.]"
In a war with China our biggest vulnerability would be "the unglamorous network of ships, aircraft, and supply depots that keep them fighting." Not going to argue with that.
Are airborne AWACS too vulnerable to survive over a modern battlefield? Maybe not. But is space really a safer environment for the warning and control assets?
Defining "pacing threat": "Two months ago, China introduced its new J-35 carrier based stealth fighter and J-35A stealth fighter-bomber."
Latin America: "a confluence of political currents in the region is giving rise to a
group of governments, almost unprecedented in number, aligned with and
interested in strengthening relations with the United States." Good.
Yeah: "On Iraq, intelligence was equivocal; refusing to apologize, he judged
outcomes over headlines, likening the case to Truman and Korea. Iraq
ultimately improved, and history will judge it more favorably." The comparison is apt if rough. We did win the Iraq War, though few recognize that.
The SPY-6(V)1 radar system goes to sea.
Is the M-7 rifle the right choice for the type of fighting American infantry will face? If smart rifle sights are adopted, I think fewer rounds with greater stopping power will be the right choice, as I addressed in this USNI essay.
Problem: "A potential fight in [the Pacific] will hinge on America and its allies’
ability to construct a bilateral battle network. The opening and closing
of kill chains are complicated by parallel command structures, where countries retain command and control of their forces." Indeed.
Putin plans two more years of war. Well, he planned a three-week special military operation. No plan survives contact with the enemy.
Sh*t got real in the G-I-UK Gap.
Huh: "The Philippine military will test a new defense plan to be spearheaded
by a new command, as officials here game out what it would take to repel
invaders without immediate help from allies." Win that first tiny war and perhaps China gets second thoughts.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "NATO member states are increasing their military presence in the Baltic
region and conducting exercises that include scenarios for blockading
Russia’s Kaliningrad region, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander
Grushko said in an interview with Izvestia on November 5."
The beatings in Britain will continue until loyal submission improves. I expect better from the British than I do from those on the continent.
I would not sell the Saudis anything but a much less capable version of the F-35.
The United States is upgrading military living quarters in Kenya. They support operations inside Somalia.
Taiwan wants more drones.
Japan deploys troops to protect civilians from guerilla bear violence.
I have been puzzled by claims that Trump is isolationist. I think he is trying to reduce American risk in an internationalist policy. I don't think I've written about this explicitly. Now I don't have to. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia and Ukraine work to sustain their war industries. Russia is at a disadvantage in this duel.
Blowback to encouraging China's economic growth: "Without a strong domestic commercial shipbuilding industry, there was a critical shortage of workers to maintain U.S. warships." China was supposed to become a friend before it got strong enough to be a threat. Is that still possible or did we ef up?
Will somebody rescue the crew in the safe room? "Attackers have boarded a ship off the coast of Somalia after firing
machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades at the vessel, according to a
UK maritime agency." Maybe a new alliance will prevent the revival of piracy in the Horn of Africa.
Hmm: "Ethiopia’s Afar region has accused forces from neighbouring Tigray of
crossing into its territory, seizing several villages and attacking
civilians, in what it called a breach of the 2022 peace deal that ended the war in northern Ethiopia." Uh oh.
From the "Well, Duh" files: There is no evidence Hezbollah is disarming.
Iran needs a win in Iraq's elections to make up for recent regional losses. Sure, but don't be tempted to think voting is the problem. We need to stay to help Iraqis keep Iran out. And promote rule of law which is the needed aspect of real democracy.
Russia's faltering efforts to restore the empire. It's much worse than that.
Germany's new brigade deployed in Lithuania has Germany's most advanced tank that includes an active protection system.
Bold move: "The United States is preparing to establish a military presence at an
airbase in Damascus to help enable a security pact that Washington is
brokering between Syria and Israel[.]" Make sure the UN has nothing to do with it.
Trump's chance to win over Central Asia? We can't be everywhere. I say make the effort only if it is part of a Russian "flip" to the West that ends Russia's vassal status "partnership without limits" with China.
I've often mentioned Islamist slaughter of Christians in Nigeria. Trump has deployed hyperbole to pressure Nigeria's government to do something. Hopefully it is more effective than Obama's hashtag campaign.
SADM: "Germany is set to develop and deploy a miniature missile designed to combat drones inexpensively[.]"
Logistics: "[Arc] is intended to deliver critical cargo from space to any point on Earth within an hour[.]" This is--and I'm going to use a technical term--stupid.
The British Army got its first new armored vehicle in 30 years, Ajax recon vehicles. Fewer than 100 variants to carry infantry are ordered.
NATO isn't worried about reductions in American Army strength in Romania. It is a secondary front against Russia--as long as Ukraine stands in the way of the Russians.
People are an asset: "The quantity and qualities of people in East Asia are changing. The
populations of China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia are aging
and shrinking, while India, the Philippines, Vietnam and Australia
continue to grow." But how you grow is key, as our once-open border shows.
Trump's recent trade deal with Xi has been portrayed as a win for China. I don't think so: "The importance of trade to the Chinese, who now have a declining middle
class, is critical. Disrupt economic stability and you have chaos and
maybe even another civil war."
Big, if true: "China has an official population of 1.42 billion and an actual population of 800 million or less." The government lies at all levels. And the official number clearly seems inflated. But by that much?
Singapore introduces drones for coastal defense. And then a bunch about China and America.
On record: "The Senate on Thursday rejected a bipartisan resolution to block
President Donald Trump from conducting strikes against Venezuela as the
U.S. continued to surge troops and military assets to the region." Failure to stop is a form of Congressional approval. Not saying war is a good idea.
It wouldn't be a target if it wasn't a good plane: "The F-35 has become a global rallying point for the far Left, sparking protests across Europe and even leading to militants’ destruction of a security firm’s office for its role in manufacturing components of the jet." I wouldn't be shocked if Russia is involved.
Ambiguity about our response to a Chinese attack on Taiwan has always been ambiguous, as Trump is now. We want to deter China from attacking not knowing how big the response would be. And we don't want to encourage Taiwan to be too aggressive believing our support is automatic.
Can Iraq use American ties to keep Iran from undermining Iraqi sovereignty? Iran exploits regional chaos. So regional peace is a weapon against Iran's mullah regime.
It takes a village to raise a jihadi. Thanks teachers! Tear down America enough and even scum bastards--whether jihadis or communists (and yes, socialism is the same economic system) look appealing because they "care" so much.
Are jihadis about to capture Mali's capital? Well, France seems convinced. Mali's government rejected UN and French help, turning to Russian mercenaries for security. But Russia seeks chaos to fuel destabilizing migration into Europe and not to stabilize Mali. Which Mali pays for. Gotta hand it to Putin.
Where the Sainted International Community® averts its gaze (and concern theater) most diligently.
RUSI report on emerging methods for restoring maneuver in Ukraine. The report mentions "bomber UAVs" that can precisely strike targets at night (to avoid anti-aircraft fire). I assume they hover and drop bombs. Is there a daylight role for dive bombing drones?
NATO has either matched or is about to match Russian artillery ammunition manufacturing capacity. That's good news. Ukraine bought NATO the time to do this.
Is this significant? "North Korea fired a suspected short-range ballistic missile towards the eastern waters on Friday[.]" North Korea has the habit of firing off missiles and rockets getting too old to use, just for the propaganda value.
Is this a promising sign? "China recently reached out to NASA over a maneuver to prevent a possible
collision between satellites, a space sustainability official said,
marking a first for space traffic management." Tip to Instapundit.
Sh*t got real in Poland.
Foreign countries learned to distrust them as bad actors exploited them: "NGOs have formal legal recognition in many countries, and
internationally they, as a group, have some standing. NGOs have become a
player in international affairs[.]" America is not immune to their harmful impact.
By being a contiguous--not overseas--empire, it avoided the grief European colonial states got: "Russia has to face the fact that when the Soviet Union broke up half the
population enthusiastically went to the 14 new countries and most of
those people were quite pleased with the demise of the Soviet Union."
NATO 155mm shells: "While they are physically compatible, in the sense that they will safely
fire with approved shell, propellant, and fuze combinations, they are
not truly technically interoperable until a howitzer battery can achieve
accurate first-round effects with munitions from another nation or
nations."
Yeah: "Russian leaders frequently boast that Russia is different from the West
and operates differently. Some of the differences include barbaric
treatment of Russian soldiers by their officers, and brutal conduct by
Russian soldiers when dealing with enemy prisoners or civilians going
about their business."
The Army trains troops to use FPV drones.
Trapped Hamas terrorists in Rafah won't surrender: "The enemy must know that the concept of surrender and handing oneself
over does not exist in the dictionary of the Al-Qassam Brigades." Fortunately, killing terrorists is in the IDF dictionary.
Residents of Russia's Kaliningrad exclave are feeling the isolation from the rest of Europe. Let them wallow in their special Russian-ness.
I will again note that links to my actual publications sometimes change. I can't possibly catch many of the bad links in posts. If a link in a post is dead, try my publications page links which I do try to keep up to date.
Sh*t got real: "the Norwegian government is currently looking at “several measures” to beef up security on the border with Russia in the Arctic north, such as fencing, increasing the number of border staff or stepping up monitoring."
Ukraine strikes disrupted power and heat to two Russian cities. Until that happens to Moscow, does it matter?
And happy 250th birthday to the Marine Corps on Monday.
