I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Phase Zero of a New War?
In case you missed it on Substack: Russia Prepares For a Future
In case you missed it on Substack: The Army Must Train to a Higher Skill Level
In case you missed it on Substack: The Keys to Mobile Warfare
Strategypage writes that the Marines are getting back to their amphibious roots. I don't see it that way. It look more like they want to be a "second Navy" with anti-ship batteries on land. Oh, and with small drones, because ... reasons?
Ukraine is certainly using drones to its advantage across the deep No-Man's Land, deep in Russia, and in the Black Sea.
There is an effort in the Senate to block American military action against Venezuela without Congressional approval. I'm not sure the War Powers Act is legal. And a declaration of war isn't the only way to go to war. But Congress certainly can stop a war with its appropriations powers.
The Army would like "loyal wingman" drones for its helicopters.
The Nimitz carrier strike group has moved into the South China Sea after sailing in CENTCOM for three months.
Sh*t got real: "U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) announced the establishment of a new
Joint Task Force (JTF) under II Marine Expeditionary Force (II MEF)
today to synchronize and augment counter-narcotics efforts across the
Western Hemisphere."
Four B-1 bombers deployed to Japan, likely for exercises with Japanese forces.
I certainly hope Trump's claim that Ukraine must be prepared to trade land for what will be called "peace" is part of the effort to get the skittish squirrel Putin to approach and take the offered cracker ceasefire and negotiations.
The USSR tested a missile defense system with an active protection point defense system that fired a shower of tungsten darts. It seemed to work. America had a similar idea. I'm feeling a lot better about my swarming drone missile defense idea.
A NATO naval exercise proved that secure ship-to-ship communications with a laser works.
Arguing against the drug war as an actual war against foreign cartels. I don't know, we went to the shores of Tripoli for to fight pirates and the governments that backed them without a declaration of war. We even tried to overthrow a government with mercenaries, a handful of Marines, and the Navy. What's the goal?
LOL! When has Iran agreed to restrict its nuclear weapons ambition?
Special Forces helicopters are near Venezuela. What's their objective?
None of the American military assets reported near Venezuela seem new. The Navy element seems smaller than early reports. It is significant for SOUTCHOM, but it is no invasion force.
Huh: "A North Korean soldier defected to South Korea across the rivals' heavily fortified border on Sunday, South Korea's military said."
Palestinians need a new statehood model: "the right to participate in the emerging market-driven global economy. The goal is not to reclaim land, but to claim agency." I've got your new model right here. But that's not my main advice.
I'm pretty sure that China's 5-year plan is mostly important for letting provincial officials know what sort of lies about statistics will be believable.
I find it hard to believe there are environmental protection motives involved: "Russia plans to begin preparations in 2026 for raising two Soviet-era nuclear submarines that sank in Arctic waters[.]"
At least two South Korean shipyards believe that they can help restore American Navy shipyard capabilities.
Zelensky said the U.S. is finalizing a long-term deal to supply Ukraine with 25 Patriot missile systems.
Good: "Germany and the Netherlands are slated to get hundreds of newly
developed Jackal wheeled infantry fighting vehicles under a
multibillion-dollar deal, co-producer Rheinmetall announced on Monday." Will they have soldiers to man them?
The Philippine Coast Guard will be improved with "American training programs, advisors and maintenance assistance."
Madagascar's coup leader has named a new prime minister.
Russia could have joined the West: "Russia continues turning into a full police state. New laws reinstate
many of the arbitrary powers the Soviet Union police and intelligence
officials had." Sadly, post-Soviet Russia clung to a stabbed-in-the-back theory. And now Russia has enemies that its delusions created.
Did Ukraine's Spider's Web special forces attacks on Russia's long-range bombers take two years to plan? If so, it really isn't a lesson for modern warfare. Special forces are great. But they aren't conventional forces for wholesale-level fighting.
The CCP's Great Wall of Placidity: "peek behind the veil, and a different reality reveals itself: a
dog-eat-dog world of power struggles, artifice, hubris, treachery, and
duplicity—yet also an enormous amount of sacrifice."
Is the U.S. building 28 more B-2 bombers? I think the simplest explanation is that Trump was referring to the new B-21 and not the existing B-2 whose production line is long dormant.
Huh: "LRMP offers ER-GMLRS a brand-new anti-ship capability with multiple
independently targeted gliding submunitions that can fly up to 70 miles
(120 kilometers) beyond the 93 mile (150 kilometer) ER-GMLRS range."
Replacing the Bradley: "the XM30 is intended to thrive on battlefields defined by electronic warfare, autonomous systems, and near-peer threats." It is also to be optionally crewed. I was less ambitious on that issue in this Infantry article. One day, Ukraine will get lots of Bradleys--which they like a lot.
AUKUS is back. I never believed the project would be cancelled notwithstanding an American review that sparked panic.
Are Venezuela's air-launched supersonic anti-ship missiles a threat to the U.S. Navy? If so, all that American ISR taking place will make sure the planes and missiles are first targets on the ground. Still, is all this concealing the real target?
Good: "Iraq
’s prime minister said Monday that a small contingent of U.S. military
advisers will remain in the country for now to coordinate with U.S.
forces in neighboring Syria combating the Islamic State group." Also, Iraq is too scared to say the other reason out loud.
Good: "The new United States–Australia Framework for Securing of Supply in the
Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths is a
game-changer for both countries and for producers such as Arafura
Resources in the Northern Territory."
Snapback divisions. Wait. What? They didn't already snap back on Iran? Maybe I was premature in declaring I was wrong about my longstanding view on the process as unenforceable.
For want of a home buyer, the kingdom was lost? Tip to Instapundit.
Anti-Houthi Yemenis seem to have granted permission to an outside player (the UAE?) to build an airfield on the Red Sea Zuqar Island.
Good: "Japan and South Korea, United States security allies in Northeast Asia,
have recently strengthened their mine warfare capabilities amid China's
growing naval presence."
Britain builds the next generation of nuclear warheads. Without actual test detonations--now banned--do we know if they actually work? I know computer simulations are supposed to figure that out. But seriously, computer simulations? What could possibly go wrong?
Pakistan and Afghanistan pause their border clashes to reload. Pakistan undermined America by supporting the Taliban, too, and to their horror the Pakistanis find that the Taliban control Afghanistan.
If even a small portion of Venezuela's arsenal is maintained with personnel who can operate them, I'll be shocked.
Definitely look up: "Space-based shenanigans are increasing in Earth's orbit."
FFS: "The majority of ground combat vehicles used by the U.S. Army and Marine
Corps are not ready to take part in missions due to a lack of
maintenance and shortages of spare parts, warns a congressional
watchdog."
I consider this a question from the "Well, Duh" files. The answer is obviously "yes." If the answer is "no" we aren't trying to win. Let's not focus on the post-war so much that we forget to win the war.
Oh? "United States defense assistance should focus on freeing Taiwan’s senior
military leadership from outdated paradigms by embedding multi-domain
operations, joint training and campaign-level wargaming." This gets Taiwan too focused on buzz words and BS while the PLA goes for the jugular.
China is a-hole: Down Under Edition.
Is a renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea war looming? Would Eritrea and Ethiopia's restive Tigray region link up to wage war?
Russia and Ukraine each think they have a path to victory: "Someone is mistaken and, if history is any indication, both sides are overly optimistic about the war’s outcome."
The Houthi are quiet: "A practical reason for this is that most of the Houthi weapons
have been destroyed and the Yemeni army is now active again against the
Houthis. The army seized a large shipment of Iranian weapons meant for
the Houthis." The title is apparently irrelevant. As for convoys, Navy in a box?
Grant me that I repeatedly said Trump would find a way to arm Ukraine: "Trump has got his isolationist followers off his back by selling the
sophisticated weapons to Europe, which they will then put into the hands
of the Ukrainians at no cost to the US public."
Is Trump triggering a Canadian time of troubles? I can't rule it out. But certainly the underlying causes of crisis are from Canada's own actions over many years. A mature country would dismiss Trump's past taunts. But maybe confederation is a better strategy for Canadian prosperity and freedoms, eh?
Uh oh: "According to an article in the UK Defence Journal, advances in sensors, the technology and ubiquity of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), and especially AI, are contributing to the revolution in anti-submarine warfare (ASW)."
I'd take this essay on responding to China's Global Governance Initiative more seriously if the author had used "equality" as part of the response rather than "equity." Sure, China is twisting words with self-serving definitions. But the pot is scolding the kettle, no?
I don't think America risks alienating India. If hardball trade negotiations are seen as a bigger threat to India than China's military and economic threats or Pakistan-backed terrorism, well ... good luck with that. Breathe, people.
Good: "Taiwan's defence ministry said on Wednesday it intends to deepen
collaboration with the United States, including reciprocal visits and
observation of military exercises, to help maintain peace and stability
in the region." Driving the PLA into the sea will be difficult without coordination.
Sweden will sell Ukraine fighter jets. It will take years to get them.
Sigh: "President Donald Trump and his Colombian counterpart Gustavo Petro
traded angry threats Wednesday as the United States announced strikes on
two alleged drug-smuggling boats ... ." We helped them fight communists for decades. And then unleashed Smart Diplomacy® on the problem.
FUBAR: "there are nearly 600 F-16s in Europe flown by non-U.S. nations, spread across a half-dozen blocks that may have differing engine types, oxygen systems and analog versus digital controls." We can't maintain each other's planes! And variation extends to ground equipment! This is insane!
Supply chain security: "A gold mine in Stibnite, Idaho, that once churned out critical minerals
for the U.S. 'Arsenal of Democracy' during World War II was resurrected
last month by the U.S. Army and Perpetua Resources Inc."
Will Canada join Norway in Germany's Type 212CD submarine program?
Sh*t got real in INDOPACOM. Bravo, China. This is on you.
China's subliminal offensive is being met with hard power: "Philippine forces trained last week to defend Balabac, a strategic
island in Palawan that is set to host a new military base dedicated to
South China Sea operations."
I wonder if Ukraine's more capable USVs will be important for crossing the Dnipro River.
I understand the drive to make first contact with robots rather than human soldiers. But don't get carried away with thinking technology will replace young men fighting, bleeding, and dying in the mud. We will always need trigger pullers. Not everyone can tap tablet screens.
Defense industry testing was high on my list of possibilities. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale in February 2022. If countries are still buying discounted Russian energy in late 2025, I doubt new American sanctions will help. Unless America can engineer a surge of non-Russian energy at prices Russia can't beat.
Europe is weak in peace but has latent power to be strong in war. Yes, I worry about a hostile power controlling the economic, scientific, and demographic assets of Europe to create a threat to America.
Discipline and tough training is a needed Pentagon reform: "Reform, then, is not nostalgia. It is a return to the toughness that keeps Soldiers alive and missions won." Teach them properly.
Should the idea of the Army Pentomic Division organization designed to disperse in the face of nukes be revived to endure the FPV suicide drones? The author notes that would require better span-of-control capabilities in the controlling headquarters and superb training to operate so dispersed. Hmm.
The Freedom Eagle-1 (FE-1) anti-drone rocket for larger suicide drone defense.
BOOM #8 in the drug war. I worry the cartels will use human shields, perhaps strapping a nun or child to the deck and score a propaganda win.
Big, if true: "President Trump disclosed this week that talks with China could result in some type of deal on Taiwan, an unofficial U.S. ally facing the prospect of a Chinese military takeover."
Good Lord, could Islamist terrorists take over Mali? The stupidity of Mali's rulers ejecting the French and relying on Russia's Wagner mercenaries is now evident. Wagner's job is to destabilize Africa and send gold to Russia. Mission accomplished.
The Navy faces a crisis as America's shipbuilding industry is unable to build quality ships rapidly or repair and maintain the ships and submarines it has. Ship got real.
Headline from Bizzaro World Times? "Syrian forces negotiate truce with French-led jihadist group holed up in camp[.]" Or maybe just news from the near future in our timeline.
Drone war: "In the Fall of 2023, a brigade of the 10th Mountain Division became the
first large unit of U.S. soldiers to face waves of long-distance one-way
attack drones." They did shoot down a lot. Still, the brigade had to just sit and take it on defense.
Bomb damage assessment is hard.
Russia failed to get its short and glorious war. But I don't understand the statement that "after more than three years of fighting, the Ukrainians are gaining more ground ... ". No. Russia lost a lot of ground in 2022 after their initial gains. But Russia slowly takes ground. Is this text old but carried forward?
Drug War BOOM #9. Are land strikes next? That's a major escalation and risks inter-state war.
Army troops now in for the duration (of the government "shutdown").
Unless I'm getting slanted news, that seemed an unnecessary artillery demonstration. The closest to action I experienced was getting a very nervous signal crew reporting that artillery was falling uncomfortably close. I reported the reported danger rapidly and I was able to quickly (to me!) confirm fire was shifted.
I understand the European interest in this--but good luck with that.
South Korea launched the first of three new attack subs: "The agency described Batch-II as a 'world-class diesel submarine' and a 'core military asset to counter diverse maritime security threats.'" South Korea is no longer solely fixated on DMZ security.
Ukrainian cyber-war against Russia. I wonder if Western countries help out with methods and intelligence on targets in exchange for sharing information gained.
Yes, NATO has more war potential than Russia. And Russia is farther east. But a Cold War invasion wouldn't have looked like the Winter War of 2022. West Germany had 248,717 km2 of territory. Russia's 2022 gains peaked at 119,000 km2. Losing half--even if a broad Soviet advance--could have been fatal.
If Trump is coming for Maduro--and I don't assume that--it is only in the sense that we would support a revolt. Precision strikes to halt Maduro counter-attacks and Marines reinforcing our embassy (kept running by hired locals) defenses are all I would expect from the military if a serious revolt overthrows Maduro.
Canada's defense "death spiral" "has left the nation with a skeleton force—including only 40 naval
vessels—struggling to patrol the world’s longest coastline and the
strategic Arctic." The author suggests a sense of urgency for the Arctic. Indeed. All I ask is that Canada not stink on ice.
The Navy should match its deployments to its capabilities: "The U.S. Navy no longer needs to 'command the sea' but should instead
pursue a strategy of 'disciplined restraint,' focusing on denying sea
control to rivals in key regions." I have suggested the Fisher Solution 2.0. To buy time to rebuild the fleet.
Marine Force Design update. I'm not against the Marines aligning more closely with the Navy. But I do not like Force Design.
Is NATO's strategy to secure Baltic Sea underwater cables with space backups just going from the frying pan into the fire?
Russia launches large-scale nuclear exercises. To be fair, with their shattered ground forces stuck in Ukraine, nukes are the only way to protect their Far East from China. We fixate on interpreting Russian nuclear threats to us. But the West is not the only recipient of those messages.
If China is edging toward an EP-3-type incident with Australian aircraft, action is needed: "Australia must prepare for the possibility of crisis or conflict; not to
invite it, but to deter it. And if deterrence fails, we must be ready
to respond. Australia cannot afford to become the desensitised boiling
frog."
Ford (and all of its escorts?) was ordered to the Caribbean Sea.
The impact of the AWS oops raises the question of whether the Internet can be physically attacked. The search for web efficiency has taken over from the early web's resiliency. Never mind hackers. How many crucial pieces of the Internet need to be blown up to take it down?
Maduro supports a rogue's gallery of anti-American groups in America. And don't forget Hezbollah. Which is why I wonder what our objective is.
Sh*t got altitude: "The Lithuanian military said two Russian military aircraft briefly
entered the airspace of the Baltic EU and NATO country on Thursday
evening. In response, two Spanish Air Force Eurofighters stationed in
Lithuania were scrambled."
Ukraine's Jager Brigade.
A partition of Ukraine would not solve the problem and perhaps create more. And it rewards aggression. But in reality I doubt Ukrainians are willing to die to liberate all the territory after 44 months of death and destruction. Before the war, I felt partition was possible. Just don't recognize Russia's conquest.
Putin thumps his chest and flings poo: "A British judge on Friday sentenced five men for their roles in an arson
attack in London that authorities say was masterminded by Russian
intelligence as part of a wider campaign of sabotage and disruption." More Storm Shadows for Ukraine is an appropriate sentence.
Could American Marines in the Caribbean be used to seize one of Venezuela's islands in order to allow a rival government to establish a capital on Venezuelan soil? Slightly expanded thoughts here. (I found a loophole for my self-imposed three-lines-of-text-on-my-editing-screen limit.)
A video on the small UGV hype and reality. I was not fooled into flinging panties. At best they are the first crawl. And even if they eventually run, they cope with stalemate--not break it. Face it, the cost to make them work may make them too expensive to treat as expendable.
Strategy provides an ode to drones. I'm not against them. I think they are useful in a combined arms fight. But information is the key to their success and other means of attack are probably superior. As for ship defense, fight fire with fire?
Interesting takes on Russia's naval threat to Britain. NATO chief Rutte's mocked Russia's fleet. I think NATO can crush it. And I suspect Russia's fleet is intended to maintain the security of its SSBN bastions. Russia's fleet poses a missile threat, but that's an air defense problem. But yes, the Royal Navy is fragile.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Hamas racing to entrench itself in Gaza[.]" Hamas should be careful what they wish for.
Arguing for British mass and endurance over raiding for the Baltic Sea theater. Fleet and marine implications. Tip to Palmer.
Didn't we learn in 1991 that low-level penetration isn't safe? "New radar and missile technology have resulted in a 'flattening of the
earth' that puts even extremely low-flying aircraft at much higher risk,
a Royal Air Force officer said this week."
The European Union wants a role in Gaza. Be careful, success in Gaza has a lower priority than strengthening the EU. Help from European states is welcome. The EU? Not so much.
Oh, Ireland's immigration problem can surely be ignored--as long as its leadership considers the problems a feature rather than a bug. Will Irish voters insist on a better class of leadership rather than the reverse objective of leaders?
Is America preparing for war against Venezuela? Define "war", please. Still, I respect Admiral Holsey's decision to resign (appropriately quietly to avoid compromising American troops) if he could not follow orders. I wish we'd had more of that before the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle.
"Somalia" at a crossroads? Since 1991 the West has been trying to get Somalia's UN seat to mean something. I think we should recognize regional governments as sovereign until "Somalia" can govern what is left and justify the UN seat.
An "idea" has a "hit list". Well, that's a biased term. But the signal is given to the more violent and/or unhinged members. These people are insurrectionists and terrorists. Tip to Instapundit.
I had English language visitors from Beijing, London, New York, Bangkok, and Singapore--all on identical computers--viewing my home page, published works, and sources and methods pages. All within seven minutes. On Saturday. Of course, Trump is traveling in Asia. Hmm.
