I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Has America Forgotten the Purpose of Maritime Power?
In case you missed it on Substack: Lessons for NATO From Russia's Invasion of Ukraine.
In case you missed it on Substack: The Price of Defense and the "Tariff" of Geography.
In case you missed it on Substack: Be Careful What You Wish For.
I try to remain calm in foreign policy, regardless of party, because the first step doesn't have to be the only step. Panicked anger could be appropriate or it could be akin to observing your loved one in vital surgery and screeching as the surgery starts, "Stop that madman! He's stabbing my wife!!" Breathe, people.
Six European NATO navies launched an exercise in the Mediterranean Sea. I just don't worry about a Russian Mediterranean flotilla.
China sets a record--so far--for taunting Japan in the East China Sea.
The sale of future F-47s would have their capabilities reduced by 10% for security. Commence freakout. Allies got zero percent of the F-22. Problematic Turkey got zero percent of the F-35. Selling less capable "monkey models" to allies is a thing.
Australia's Collins-class subs to get Mk. 48 heavy anti-sub torpedoes. Best to get experience prior to AUKUS submarines, eh?
The Houthi may have a better chance to hit our warships than we think. Sailing around in range as target practice rather than waging a campaign to destroy their capabilities will risk that.
Navy destroyers deployed for the civilian NORTHCOM missions along our southern coasts will have Coast Guard boarding detachments aboard.
As I noted about DOD DEI deletions, "Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a video that mistaken removals
will be quickly rectified. 'History is not DEI,' he said, referring to
diversity, equity and inclusion."
China announces it has an effective deep sea cable cutter. China is a-hole. Good to know.
From the "Well, Duh" files.
The Pentagon (rightly) reminds troops that service limits their freedom of speech to maintain cohesion. I hope our active and retired FOGOs got that reminder, too.
Chinese gangsters like Nigeria.
A second American carrier strike group was ordered to CENTCOM. It will replace the group there now. Of course, there could be overlap for a while.
Getting to the F-47 decision.
European elites are "very nervous" about freedom of speech. To be fair, all autocrats are. That attitude should damn the elites and not the freedom those proto-imperial elites want to kill.
Some are more equal than others, comrades. Tip to Instapundit. To be fair, our socialists are usually at least millionaires.
Is it just me, or is celebrating retaking your own capital a premature "mission accomplished" moment?
Russia continues to kidnap Ukrainian children to absorb them into an aggressive Russia. FDR "uncle Joe'd" evil Stalin. Don't pretend Putin isn't a monster even if we must deal with him.
If Hamas survives this war, it will still try to destroy Israel.
Is China's fear of a Russia-America reconciliation pushing it to reach out to Japan and South Korea?
Europe with its massive GDP can't defend itself against tiny Russia because Europe is politically fragmented? I'm calling BS on this plea for an imperial European Union to subjugate European nations.
Europe ignored Obama's polite requests to rearm as America pivoted to Asia; breathed a sigh of relief after Trump I so they could ignore the blaring defense industrial base alarm of Russia's invasion of Ukraine during Biden's tenure; and now finds Trump II yelling at them to act.
A reverse Kissinger of America prying Russia away from China would be great. I've long wanted that. But unless that geopolitical flip is based on facing a common foe--China--it will simply be sacrificing a victim to Russia and telling ourselves it will be the last demand.
1/5 Yeah, don't make that kind of operational security mistake again. This isn't anywhere nearly as bad as a bathroom server for a long-running private email system bypassing government security. Nor is it clear what secret or war plan was exposed. I'm tentatively calling BS on the Signal Kerfuffle. But still, FFS.
If the purpose of American diplomacy is to flip Russia away from China, keeping the talks in Saudi Arabia just between America and Russia is a wise move.
Come on Pentagon, at least make the Chinese work for their signals intelligence.
Counter-terrorism isn't being cut. I say if it isn't LeadOps, it's basically BS.
Preparing for the "big one" in the air over Europe.
Germany warns China and Russia are recruiting assets to sabotage Europe's private sector. The West is under assault.
Some Russian troops used pack animals, lacking motor transport. But pack animals are not unusual for difficult terrain.
Ukraine has started using small ground drones. I discussed that and recalled the World War I assault on Hamel for lessons.
With discussion of the lack of Americans' privacy by even foreigners due to technology, you might want to check out a 2000 book, The Light of Other Days, by Arthur C. Clarke and Stephen Baxter. I often recall that book in this age. Things could be worse. Even without the book's technology.
China's coastal bridging barges and an invasion of Taiwan. They need a protective ground and air defense bubble from fires. But they add more means to get across the strait in sufficient numbers to win.
Britain lays the keel for its first new Dreadnought SSBNs.
The Army still wants an extended-range cannon.
How the F-47 improves on the F-22. Also, I had assumed the designation was a call back to the P-47 Thunderbolt. But Trump is the 47th president. Is that job security for Boeing?
A short history of the Panama Canal and China's interest in it. As I included in my Taiwan Crisis Part III (I to III collected on Substack in "Objective: Taipei"), China wants the ability to block the canal.
Sudan's heavy civilian losses in an air strike on a market fail to move the sainted international community because Israel did not launch the attack. There is a history of ignored genocide there.
Sh*t got real. Related.
UAVs. I think the small ones are ascendant because counter-measures lag, lack of air power and artillery shortages, and a largely static front; and will settle down into a useful weapon in the combined arms kit.
The mission from God hits some speed bumps.
Abandoning the F-35 is delusional for Canada and basically cutting off their nose to spite their face.
2/5 The more I read about the Signal security issue, the more it seems like the screeching reaction here and abroad is inversely proportional to the impact of the breach, which was also limited to the writer. Close the hole, by all means. It is a risk. But the rending of garments is unjustified.
The military JAG program is broken. Read it all for solutions. We should train them in military law schools that teach the purpose of the UCMJ is to maintain an effective military force.
Western nations want HTS to reign in its jihadis to earn assistance. Good luck with that. HTS is unlikely to adjust their troop commanders to comply with U.S. demands.
Egypt-Ethiopian tensions fuel conflict in the Horn of Africa. Indeed.
Perhaps access to Congo's (DRC, or old Zaire) critical minerals would be good for America. But there is no way American mineral deal would bring peace to the conflict-afflicted DRC.
Denying Trump is pursuing a "reverse Nixon" to split Russia from China. Resting that denial on the claim Russia and China are "substantially and increasingly aligned" doesn't accurately define their relationship.
Recognizing that victims are now predators.
3/5 In regard to the Signal hole, I'd absolutely be upset if an enemy had some of the information revealed. Which is why I want the revealed hole closed. Unless you are suggesting The Atlantic guy is such a threat, the reaction is grossly overblown.
How many times will gullible Westerners trust jihadis not to be jihadis? FFS.
Well that is the question of the day for Turkey, no?
It is said that fear is the beginning of Wisdom. Gazans may fear Israel more than Hamas now.
Are China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia coordinating actions against America more?
Let a thousand anti-American conspiracy theories bloom! Tip to Instapundit.
Sure, war reserve stocks are just juicy targets if not protected. Because CONUS isn't a sanctuary.
Erdogan wants back into the F-35 program. Hmmm. Unless we give them a 50% plane, no dice.
The SM-6 can intercept hypersonic missiles.
"Blackjack" Pershing was unavailable for comment.
China seeks to make up for deficiencies behind their shiny new navy with land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles. I do wonder about China's large fleet. And the missile kill chain is important.
Anyone who remembers the incorrect allegations that the Iraq War was "breaking" the U.S. Army (4,500 KIA in 6 years) must surely be amazed the Russian army isn't in a fetal position pissing itself in a cellar.
4/5 This matches my judgment about the Signal hole: "Signalgate is/was a mistake. A destructive mistake? No." He also suggests dumping Signal and asks if it could have been a set-up. I'll add we should broaden concern to all phone apps in the hands of our military.
Germany will stick with its F-35 purchase.
Training is dangerous.
The Army wants a large stockpile of cheap shorter-range precision rockets that can fit in MLRS boxes.
I wouldn't call it mission accomplished yet on the B-21 being under budget.
How is a space "satellite carrier" superior (or cheaper) than having enough launch capacity to rapidly put the satellites into orbit? Won't it just be a juicy target for anti-satellite weapons?
Yes, breathe, people. And yes, the "more Europe" people are usual suspects.
Strengthening America's alliances in INDOPACOM. It's herding the cats out there.
Huh: "The Syrian government is probably engaging China to secure Chinese support for the transition." Will China take over Russia's bases?
The United States isn't embarking on an imperial expansion. Breathe, people.
A brigade of the 101st Airborne Division has rotated troops into Romania.
China really doesn't like Typhon. The Marines should buy them so they aren't completely worthless now.
The U.S. is sending advanced air and missile defense capabilities to Asia and Europe.
The U.S. is seeking to help Guyana build its economy (and oil industry) while warning Venezuela to keep its hands off Guyana territory.
North Korea sent 3,000 more troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine. And a lot more artillery systems.
Can the U.S. establish deterrence in the West Philippine Sea (a portion of the South China Sea)?
Cheap 70mm cruise missile defense in Ukraine.
China helps Russia's 112 "shadow fleet" tankers export oil.
I missed the news that America could sell F-35s to India. Perhaps India's fighter dysfunction will pay off.
Sweden puts its fighter jets on NATO's front line.
A 7.7 earthquake in Myanmar that shook Thailand, too. Effects in Myanmar unknown. LATER: 8.2 (via Instapundit). This will be very bad.
Should Trump follow Eisenhower's example of "ending" the Korean War? That required an American Army corps defending Seoul for decades, with troops still in South Korea. Also, the Korean War ended largely along the pre-war line. Are we going to achieve that with all the land Russia has taken since 2014?
5/5 It was pointed out that the Atlantic editor didn't warn the government Signal group it had a hole in its security. Did Goldberg know he was the only security leak? Or didn't he care if it was a general vulnerability?
The erosion of Egyptian-Israeli relations. Perhaps a joint effort against the Houthi would help in the short run and buy time to end the Gaza irritant.
Good! "Panama has canceled the registrations of dozens of ships that were
sanctioned, potentially delivering a blow to Russian oil exports."
The Global Troubles required killing jihadis in Somalia.
The PLAN stretches its sea legs.
Noting "grand strategy is simply 'the sustainable balancing of means and
ends, based on a prudent calculation of the state’s interests and the
threats to those interests'." Sounds right for America. And for Britain, as the author notes, the country is in an awkward position. Then he tosses in premature panic.
The Minuteman III ICBMs may be kept until 2050.
The Infantry Squad Vehicle uses little fuel compared to HMMWVs. Consider that the HMMWV was originally light (I had vinyl doors) until they were up-armored so crew could survive. So ef the ISV role.
Battery power banks sound good for reducing field headquarters sound emissions. But do they burn like an electric car?
How's that urgent mission to expand the Navy going? Oh.
I'd say closeness to China is Taiwan's biggest defense problem, but slow US arms deliveries is up there. Which is why I'd focus on the defense industrial base before expanding force structure too much.
Israel built a large Arabic language model AI after Hamas invaded Israel to rape, murder, and kidnap Jews.
This time for sure! "The Ukraine War was another disaster for the Russian army. In 2025
Russian military leaders are calling for another round of reforms, one
that will work." To be fair, they could get good enough.
European "strategic autonomy" is an illusion. Silly authors! The European Union only wants the power to have strategic autonomy!
The U.S. says it will send robotic anti-ship missiles and unmanned surface vessels to protect the Philippines. Wonder why?
Friends with a common foe.
Force Design Marines can't replace a robust Navy. Indeed, Force Design SIFs under EABO basically require a Navy strong enough to make the anti-ship SIFs irrelevant.
Every time Putin speaks I want to cancel ceasefire talks and give Ukraine 500 Abrams, 500 Bradleys, 200 HIMARS, 200 F-16s, and 50 nuclear missiles.
More (likely?) American strikes on the Houthi. The B-2s noted at Diego Garcia can carry massive GBU-57 penetrating bombs. If attacks thus far sent leadership into deep bunkers ...
This last week I've gotten a lot of hits from a few hosts apparently from Japan, China, and Los Angeles that focus on older posts. I have no idea what this is. Weird.
