Iran's Eroded Proxy Force in Iraq

I've long been frustrated at the apparent inability of the Iraqis to dismantle the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Force militias established during the ISIL 2014 offensive. Perhaps I have been wrong to worry.

I recognized both the threat of the PMF militias. Yet recognized forcefully disbanding them could be too much of a short-term threat:

I've written about the need to bring the militias under control or ultimately disband them. The weak Iraqi government has to be careful but the job must be started before the militias are as entrenched in Iraq as Hezbollah is in Lebanon.

The militias have largely been unwilling to rise up to support Iran. Seemingly, Iraq has slowly been working the problem:

They painted a picture of a proxy network hollowed out by years of targeted assassinations of hard-to-replace leaders; the loss of secure bases for training and weapons transit; and the transformation of Iraqi commanders into wealthy politicians and businessmen with more to lose than gain from confronting the West.

One commander said he believed only two or three of dozens of the militias would fully obey Iranian orders to strike.

It seems like the Iraqis took a smart, slow path to de-fang the militias. Crushing the mullah regime in Iran might finish them off whether or not the mullah regime survives. 

UPDATE: That's timely news:

Iranian-backed militias have been increasing their attacks in Iraq in part because Tehran has lost its control over these groups since the launch of Epic Fury, a retired tier one special operator who just left Baghdad told The War Zone.

Perhaps I'm mistaken about the pro-Iran militias not being as effective as I'd expect. The update article speaks of "chaos"; but I don't see news reports about that. Surely, much of the media would eagerly report that, no? 

Something to watch. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from here.

Combined Arms Changes

New weapons should change Army combined arms operations.

This is fair:

Drones are profoundly changing the Army’s approach to aviation and combined arms training, Maj. Gen. Clair A. Gill, commanding general of the U.S. Army Aviation Center of Excellence, told Military Times in an interview.

I wonder about attack helicopters over the modern battlefield. 

As for drones, of course they change combined arms. And widely fielded counter-drone systems could eventually do the same. So this is relevant, too:

However, fighting methods from Ukraine should not be broadly applied to American forces, he noted, due to differences in U.S. tactics and capabilities. 

Endorsed! And let's not forget difference in the drone defense issue.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

Changing the Terms of NATO: Spanish Edition

I read complaints that America has changed the terms of Article V by insisting allies earn American help by doing more to defend NATO. Spain is one of the countries that changed the terms of Article V long before America did.

Spain doesn't spend much on defense and never has in NATO. And the current justification is that Spain is far from Russia:

Madrid had little incentive to ramp up defence spending. It languished further after Spain reeled from the 2008 financial crash, standing at just 0.9 percent when Russia annexed Crimea. And since the likes of Germany were slow to raise their tiny military budgets after what should have been a turning point, faraway Spain could be forgiven for stepping up inadequately. Especially seeing as Ukraine is on the other side of the continent. 

Just going to note--notwithstanding my longstanding support for arming Ukraine and my even longer support for preventing Russia from being a threat--that America is even farther from Ukraine and Russia, from the perspective of looking across the Atlantic.

While America may be revising the terms of Article V--never an automatic trigger--Europeans had already revised the terms of Article V by disarming far more ... enthusiastically ... than America did after the Cold War. Those European states counted on America defending them regardless of their contribution.

Much of NATO has or is correcting that mutual defense deficiency. Spain has not. Although it did decide to help defend Cyprus. And if the initial author is correct, internal politics will prevent Spain from spending more. Spain's failure to let America use its air bases for the war against Iran is not a promising sign. And it got worse. 

Perhaps another NATO ally would like to host the ballistic missile defense destroyers we base in Spain now.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo of the Spanish destroyer ordered to Cyprus from the last article.

Yes, I Have Another Site

I experimented with linking my individual Substack posts here to increase their search engine visibility. But I think I was addressing a non-problem. So I'm not doing it any more notwithstanding my lovely illustration for the tag.

As long as you are here, head on over to my Substack, The Dignified Rant: Evolved, for more dignified rantiness on a new platform. 

I've been blogging since July 2022. I started on Geocities. Partially moved from the absorbed Yahoo!Geocities when my storage ran low to Blogger. Then fully relied on Blogger when Yahoo!Geocities died. 

And now I've moved partially to Substack. I would like escape the nightmare of again moving old site content to my latest site.

FUN FACT: When I started The Dignified Rant, I thought that one day I might move away from the more whimsical early Blogosphere vibe to the more buttoned down The Dunn Report--thus keeping the TDR shorthand intact. Screw that. Dignified and ranty will endure.

Small Drones Graduate From Ammunition

Small suicide drones are really loitering smart bombs with a small payload. Some are evolving back into platforms as modern attack drones began.

Small attack drones are now small bombers:

Explosive first-person-view drones get a lot of the attention, but the most dangerous drones in the sky over Ukraine—especially for the Russians—are heavy bomber drones.

Where an FPV explodes on contact, making it single-use, a heavy bomber drone is reusable. It can strike repeatedly with a payload of several grenades and then return to base for more munitions.

Hovering to drop the grenades may be accurate but that makes them more vulnerable to being shot down when troops increase their awareness of this threat, no?

Could we see these bomber drones become dive bombers to use speed at bomb launch for aiming and some protection? And how long before its all just a Bonsai Air Force doing all the things big aircraft can't do close to the ground? But even then, we won't have victory through tiny air power.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Says "This Time For Sure"

Russia's 2026 primary offensive season kicked off with armored combat vehicles again part of Moscow's arsenal. This time for sure? Or is Russia's home front getting unstable? Will the fires spread?

Russia again intensified their ground attacks against Ukraine:

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces intensified ground attacks across the theater in the last week, which is — consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have launched their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.

Russia's tired troops who may no longer have any delusions about their chances of survival will go up against Ukrainians who once again have to endure the Russian hammer blows.

And Russia's economy seems to be reaching its limits:

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly requested that Russia’s top businessmen provide funding for the Russian government, indicating that the Kremlin may be growing desperate for economic relief and may be setting conditions to nationalize their assets to support the war effort.

Yet if Russia's troops, people, or financial pillars can't endure this pace of war, going on the strategic defensive may not only be domestically risky but give Ukraine its opening. 

Ukraine has demonstrated an ability to counter-attack successfully this year. But can Ukraine's ground forces expand that to a counteroffensive if the opportunity presents itself? The possibility still seems open notwithstanding the beginning of Putin's latest Big Push:

Ukrainian counterattacks continue to make gains in southern Ukraine, creating operational and strategic effects against Russian forces going into the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt.

And Ukraine's strategic bombing campaign is growing in scale and reach:

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure near the Baltic Sea on the night of March 26 to 27, marking the fourth strike in five days against Russian oil infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast.

One aspect of Ukraine's war effort is focusing on destroying Russia's air defense assets. This can aid either the ground or strategic bombing efforts by opening the door for more bombardment or troops support. Even Ukraine's small air force could add their weight to those battles instead of being kept mostly on air defense missions. 

Will Putin's need to finally win this war before the stresses building up in the ground forces, economy, and population openly crack a foundation of the war effort? Will Ukraine recognize an opportunity even if they have the forces to attack on a larger scale?

UPDATE (Monday): Predictions of stresses breaking Russia's war effort have been repeated over the last four years:

Russia can no longer afford its war in Ukraine. Since 2022 Russia has spent nearly $700 billion and lost 1.3 million troops, with over a million Russian men fleeting the country to avoid the war. There is a labor shortage and a growing number of protests against the war and its human losses and growing poverty.  

Yet the stresses never broke Russia. But the stresses are real. One day the effects will happen. And perhaps Russia's rulers will ignore real signs because they endured past false predictions of doom.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Image from ISW.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Israel Returns to the Hezbollah Problem

In case you missed it on Substack: Securing Ground Lines of Communication

In case you missed it on Substack: Combined Arms and Joint Warfare

In case you missed it on Substack: Geography, Strategy and U.S. Force Design (and to my eternal shame I forgot my Oxford comma in the title)

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Let's Not Pretend European Freelancing is New

Europe may deal with Russia separately from America. Don't act as if this is new.

Oh?

If the United States pursues its own deal with Russia to end the Ukraine War, it cannot expect the Europeans to refrain from engaging with Russia on their own.

Ah, the old European "strategic autonomy" goal. Which means the European Union. Which means that the EU doesn't actually care about Russia policy. The EU cares about the authority to have a Russia policy. 

Europeans can pretend this is America's fault. But during the Cold War, Europeans reached out to the Soviet Union separately from unified NATO action. Remember Ostpolitik? Mind you, I concede they had reasons to worry. 

But don't pretend Europeans would be happy if America was aggressive in its leadership in Europe through NATO. Or in the Middle East, for that matter. It's a geopolitical Goldilocks problem. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo of Ostpolitik in action from this site.

Geography, Strategy and U.S. Force Design

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction to essays here and see what happens.

Geography shapes America’s strategy, which shapes American military strategy, which shapes force structure in unique ways that our Eurasian allies and enemies do not reflect given their own geography. Since the 1898 Spanish-American War, America transitioned from holding our ground against stronger European military powers sailing here to intervening in Europe (and then Asia) to prevent threats from growing to a size to cross an ocean and threaten America directly. And the military capabilities of our allies and potential enemies influence our force structure and foreign policy, including a decision to use military force.  ... [CONTINUE READING]

Thickening the Thin Blue Line in INDOPACOM

The Air Force is reinforcing the Navy for the job of sinking enemy ships.

The Iran War has demonstrated the ability of American air power to sink ships.

This is needed when scarce air bases close to China for tactical aircraft are well within China's aircraft and missile reach:

U.S. naval aviation equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles and a B-2 stealth bomber held an integrated maritime strike exercise off California, the Air Force announced Tuesday.

Fighters from Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 11 – the naval aviation component of the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group – trained alongside at least one Spirit strategic bomber from the 509th Bomb Wing, flying from Whiteman Air Base, Mo., at an unspecified date.

I worry about risking our carriers within China's A2/AD envelopes. But by working with appropriately equipped and trained land-based planes to create a temporary bubble of protection so carriers can dash in and strike before retiring, the carrier wartime role in the western Pacific may be feasible.

We don't have many B-2s. But we will have many B-21s able to do what we test today.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.