Once More With Feeling! And a New Name.

Once more, we're told "one weird trick" will save Taiwan from being conquered by China. Just click the link and behold!

America needs a "new" strategy to defend Taiwan:

Taking advantage of widely available aerial, naval and undersea drones, “hedge forces” could deny access to an aggressor. Ukraine used this approach to sink half Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and restore its maritime trade while Houthi drones under and above the water have upended worldwide shipping traffic with their attacks across the Red Sea. The U.S. military should exploit these same technologies to disrupt or slow a Chinese invasion. Tangled up in a hedge force’s drones, China’s troop transports and their escorts would also be easier targets for U.S. missiles. 

This isn't really new. It's just another name for "porcupine," "hedgehog," or--really--"Hezbollah" strategies that worship at the altar of the false god of asymmetrical warfare:

"Asymmetrical" concepts seem to miss the point that any weapon system or type of military unit has weaknesses that another weapon or type of unit must cover. That's why we embrace combined arms within the ground services and jointness between the services. It's rock, paper, scissors.

When I hear about asymmetric defenses, it almost always means that someone thinks that a country can escape the burden of defense spending by some clever device that undermines the enemy's entire expensive arsenal. Just because a country decides to use weapons other than carriers to fight carriers or weapons other than tanks to fight tanks doesn't make them asymmetric. It makes it war.

The main new thing is that it restricts itself to naval warfare. But as I commented before about the Ukraine evidence:

Anybody who says Ukraine's success against Russia's Black Sea Fleet should cause China to worry about what Taiwan could do ignores that Ukraine has inflicted this damage over 25 months. Taiwan would need to inflict multiples of that damage in 25 hours.

Still, at least the authors don't try to claim their one neat trick can deter the Chinese. I have my doubts about our ability to calculate that sort of thing.

As for the Houthi, we're going through the motions of fighting them. 

Ultimately, disrupting or slowing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan isn't enough if the Chinese get ashore and stay there.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

A-Whacks

Aerial drones fired by the Houthi are straining the ability of our Navy to protect the sea line of communication through the Red Sea. And Iran's massed drone and missile attack on Israel required lots of expensive defensive systems to smash up. Could a combination AWACs/missile truck plane provide a cheaper defense than expensive Standard missiles launched from surface ships?

We're expending expensive missiles that can't be reloaded at sea to knock down Houthi anti-ship drones and ballistic missiles. What if an enemy more capable than the Houthi fight our ships near their shores? And don't forget that if the Houthi keep shooting at us, one will eventually get through from error or bad luck--or just probability over a long enough period of time.

And the Iranian attack on Israel dramatically showed that massed drone and missile strikes are a threat to land targets, on top of the routine Russian use of such weapons against Ukraine.

The Kamikaze experience in World War II forced the Navy to adapt. The Navy needed advanced warning and lots of fighter planes and anti-aircraft weapons to knock down these human brain-directed cruise missiles. Electronic brains mean more of those cruise missile-type weapons can be fired.

America developed AWACS from the civilian 707 to create the most effective airborne early warning plane that could also control the air battle (our first early warning plane emerged in World War II using modified Avenger torpedo planes).

The Navy P-8 armed anti-submarine and patrol plane is based on the 737. It can search and strike.

I've addressed the idea of airborne missile trucks and wondered if the B-1 bomber could be used for air defense work--an AABONE.

Why not combine all of them on a civilian airliner? We're shrinking the electronics so that the early warning and control can be put in smaller planes. So there would be room for weapons, too. And they could be linked with other planes and with more conventional assets given that shooters and sensors can be separated.

For the Vampire ground-based anti-drone system, we have developed smaller air-to-air rockets--APKWS 70mm laser guided rockets--that are cheaper than the sophisticated air-to-air missiles:

These weigh only 15 kg (32 pounds) each and have a range of about a thousand meters when fired from the ground. Vampire can be used to detect and fire APKWS laser guided rockets at air and even ground targets. Any UAV, cruise missile or helicopter within range is vulnerable. Vampire is designed to be reconfigured, which is the kind of system Ukrainians prefer. The Fletcher launcher is designed to use the new, longer range APKWS rockets that gain additional range by having a larger rocket motor which makes the APKWS longer.

The rocket can go nearly 7 miles when fired from aircraft. A lot could be packed into a commercial airliner converted to an air defense aircraft, right? There could also be a smaller number of longer-range sophisticated air-to-air missiles carried.

Such a plane based on land air bases could provide protection for warships sailing close to shore where massed drones and rockets could be fired at the ships.

And they could be used as a mobile reserve to protect ground targets as well, which both Israel and Ukraine demonstrate is necessary. They'd certainly be cheaper than using fighter planes and lots of advanced missiles.

Call it A-Whacks. 

I'll pause while you applaud. Really, I'm flattered. Don't. Stop. Okay, don't stop.

But the name will go nowhere. My brilliant suggestions have never gone anywhere.

Although of course the cost of attack drones versus defensive systems isn't the only cost-effectiveness angle. You have to consider the cost of what you are protecting. But a cheaper and more easily replenished weapon is an advantage in a long campaign.

And as long as I'm on this general topic. Could aerial drones be used for defending against incoming missiles? Funny enough, I discovered an earlier entry into that suggestion.

Anyway, the A-Whacks and point defense drones would all be part of a layered defense in depth that should also include knocking out the missile launchers on the ground before they are fired. 

UPDATE: Timely:

The US Navy now has a shortage of air and space defense missiles, especially the SM-6 missiles that can be used against aircraft, ballistic missiles, other ships, and even low earth orbit satellites. These missiles were used at a high rate during the recent actions in the Red Sea to prevent Iran-backed Yemen Shia rebels from hitting commercial ships with Iranian missiles. SM-6 missiles were used to intercept the Iranian missiles fired at ships.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

The Budding Friendship in INDOPACOM

America and India are drawing closer together as we both confront China and as Putin's invasion of Ukraine has forfeited any Russian option but being China's vassal. What should the America-India relationship look like?

This is correct:

The era of great power competition calls for Great Power Partnerships. Size matters. As the United States engages in competitive or adversarial relationships with Asian and Eurasian powers China and Russia, it is prudent for it to seek a Great Power Partnership. Conversely, India is engaged in localized hostilities with its neighbors China and Pakistan, and finds its one-time friend Russia reduced to being a dependent of China. Realpolitik calls for the largest American and Asian nations, as democracies, to forge a Great Power Partnership to their mutual advantage. 

Since the Bush 43 administration and subsequent Democratic and Republican administrations, America has forged closer ties with India to counter China's growing air and naval threat in the western Pacific.

And India, despite a long record of non-alignment during the Cold War with a sizable dose of anti-Americanism (to be fair, we did support Pakistan for a long time until their support for jihadis in Afghanistan and elsewhere got to be too much for us to let slide), is cooperating as the Chinese threat to India's territory continues to grow.

India would also like to push their naval shield further east. The Andaman Islands are a major barrier. That shield gives India options during a land border struggle with China. And a forward shield would limit China's ability to exploit its land-based missile threat to India's navy.

And keeping Taiwan fighting would really extend the shield far from India. The alignment for India to link up with is already forming:

The leaders of America and Japan unveiled a lengthy list of defense agreements Wednesday in what U.S. President Joe Biden called “the most significant upgrade in our alliance since it was first established.”

The two countries will improve their respective command-and-control systems, form an industrial council to build weapons together, network their missile defense systems with Australia’s and start a joint exercise with the United Kingdom, among other agreements. For the first time, America will also adjust its force structure in Japan to better work with Tokyo’s defense forces.

While America would benefit from a China focused on interior threats, India doesn't have to worry about America causing China to pose a threat to India. China is doing that all on its own with persistence over time. And India could help themselves and other democracies by using whatever influence it still has to flip Russia to a position of strategic sanity.

America and India must seriously think about how to deepen our defense ties and complicate China's strategic position. And if the West helps Ukraine enough, perhaps even Putin will see that getting out of Ukraine to repair relations with the West is the best Russian--and his own personal--survival strategy. That could be India's opportunity to flip Russia.

UPDATE: Timely:

As India’s ‘Act East’ policy focussing on Southeast Asia moves into its 10th year, it is time for New Delhi to spell out more clearly how it aims to enhance its security and strategic partnerships with ASEAN nations. 

That's the step before a Fight East policy. 

I deleted the link about using DALL-E for the image. Grabbed that from the InterTubes. Bad week to quit sniffing glue, I guess.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

Russia Has No More Than Limited Territorial Ambitions?

We can totally trust that Russia has limited appetite for conquest?

So no worries about Russia other than stopping Russia as a warm up to preparing to stop China?

Russia chiefly seeks to rebuild a sphere of influence in its neighborhood. It can also stoke trouble far afield, notably in sub-Saharan Africa. But unlike its predecessor it does not aspire to global domination. The Soviet Union’s perennial insecurities, delusions of grandeur, and desire for recognition fuelled its quest for global power (outlined in a forthcoming book by the historian Sergey Radchenko). For Russia, with 140 million people and an Italy-sized GDP ($2 trillion), such ambitions would be fanciful. [emphasis added]

So ... enslaving people [checks notes] nearby is okay?

At least the author wants to stop Russia in Ukraine. I'm fully on board that. But his foundation for pivoting to writing about China gives ammunition to those who say Ukraine should be abandoned rather than delay that future preparation for the Mister Good War threat of China.

But the claim that Russia doesn't have perennial insecurities, delusions of grandeur, and a desire for recognition is astounding. Really? That's what we're going with?

Further, isn't saying it is safe for Russia to have some territorial ambitions because a Russia with just 140 million people and a GDP of a mere $2 trillion can't aspire to more ambitions cutting off the "lather, rinse, repeat" process at the initial lather? 

If Russia starts restoring its empire--just a little in its "natural" sphere of influence--its population and GDP will go up. How much do they have to go up before global power ambitions are no longer fanciful?

And if the Russians move west, how long before their troops are close enough to the Rhine to convince some Europeans that it would be safer and cheaper to cut deals with Russia? I've long argued that Europe had a global role in the Cold War because of the importance of Europe. If Russia controls, dominates, or intimidates Western Europe, that is global power.

Oh that's silly, you say. But where is the natural limit of Russian sphere-of-influence ambitions? The Elbe River wasn't enough for Russia in the Cold War and they aimed for the Rhine. Hell, they aimed for more but for American use of the atomic bomb on Japan.

Still, if the author thinks we have to stop Russia in Ukraine before being able to fully cope with China, I'm fine with that. I just don't get why the author took a detour down "Russia isn't so bad of a threat" Boulevard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Needlessly Fragile

Lack of supplies after two years of war can shake the morale of even the most patriotic. Ukraine's army is subject to this effect no less than Washington's army at Valley Forge in the winter of 1777-1778.

Said Ukraine's president, Zelensky:

The situation at the front is "difficult, but stabilized" at the moment, Zelenskiy said, speaking in an interview that aired on April 6 on Ukrainian television.

At the moment. And stabilized means Ukraine slowly cedes ground to the invaders. Can even that level of "stabilization" last beyond weeks or months?

Zelensky warned of the effects of lack of Western support:

Zelensky stressed that Ukraine must conduct countermeasures to deprive Russian forces of the ability to prepare and conduct significant offensive efforts and not only rely on defensive operations. Zelensky stated that striking Russian force concentrations is one such countermeasure but that Ukrainian forces lack long-range weapons to strike Russian force concentrations and other targets necessary to undermine Russian operations. Senior Ukrainian officials have long called for timely and sustained Western military assistance that would enable Ukraine to conduct both defensive and counteroffensive operations when the timing is optimal for Ukraine to undertake such efforts, as opposed to having materiel shortages constrain Ukraine’s ability to plan and execute operations and losing opportunities to exploit Russian weaknesses.

Right now, that means lack of American support because America has the most capacity to arm and sustain Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion.

If the West doesn't bolster Ukraine's air defenses, Russia's air force and missiles/drones may have decisive effects on Ukrainian defense industry and combat capabilities: 

The further degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella would not only limit Ukraine’s ability to protect critical elements of its war effort in the rear but would also likely afford Russian aviation prolonged secure operation along the frontline. Such security would allow Russian forces to significantly increase glide bomb strikes at scale and possibly even allow Russian forces to conduct routine large-scale aviation operations against near rear Ukrainian logistics and cities to devastating effect.

General materiel shortages are making Ukraine's ground defenses more fragile: 

Continued delays in US security assistance are specifically impacting the capabilities that Ukrainian forces need to respond to the increased tempo of Russian mechanized assaults in eastern Ukraine.

The American military counted firepower when it wrongly determined Russia would quickly crush Ukraine's military in February 2022. Don't make the same mistake counting weapons and material still available to Ukraine and conclude Ukraine can continue to successfully resist Russia until we get our act together. Ukrainian troops are not machines whose predictable actions can be fed into simulations.

Because Ukrainians are paying a high price to hold off the Russians:

The stalling of crucial American aid, a distinct dimming of the world spotlight, and simple war weariness are all exacting a heavy cost. On the front lines, exhausted Ukrainian troops are rationing ammunition as they fend off the latest Russian advances, and anxiety is mounting along with the military and civilian toll.

Ukraine's troops are worn down from two years of war. They know they are in a fight for their freedom and lives. And the freedom and lives of their children. But many may wonder if America's lack of help means their death would be futile. Soldier who have bravely fought could, in those conditions, crack under constant Russian attack. As ISW warns:

Russian forces are pursuing at least three operational-level efforts that are not mutually reinforcing but let Russian forces prioritize grinding, tactical gains on a single sector of their choice at a time. Ukrainian forces will increasingly struggle to defend against these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine lacks further US military assistance.

God help them, but Ukraine doesn't mostly need a Saratoga to encourage Western governments or a Doolittle Raid to sustain Ukrainian civilian morale. Ukraine's troops really need a small, decisive Trenton and Princeton counter-attack to give them hope after the body blows they have endured. 

And Ukrainians really need resumed American military assistance. Soon.

UPDATE (Monday): Summer is coming:

Ukraine’s military chief on Saturday warned that the battlefield situation in the industrial east has “significantly worsened in recent days,” as warming weather allowed Russian forces to launch a fresh push along several stretches of the more 1,000 km-long (620-mile) front line.

Warming weather and lack of American military supplies.

You don't have to love Ukraine. Just reject trusting Russia any farther west. 

UPDATE (Monday): The developing battle for the Donbas city of Chasiv Yar is going to be key. It sure would be helpful if American military aid started flowing again so Ukraine wins that battle--whether or not Ukraine holds the city at the end of the battle.

UPDATE (Tuesday): ISW has this interesting note on Iran's strike on Israel:

Three unnamed US officials told the Wall Street Journal on April 14 that roughly 50 percent of the ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel either failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target. US officials stated that Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles at Israel in its attack.

While North Korean missiles are apparently much worse than this, as I mentioned recently, Iran's are apparently not even as good as what Russia builds.

UPDATE (Tuesday): This analyst who knows far more than I ever will doesn't expect the Russian offensive to commence until later in May, at the earliest, based on historical ground conditions.

As I noted about current Russian attack intensification:

But does it represent the leading edge of a concentration of Russian ground forces for larger attacks in the coming months after spring soggy ground dries out by the summer? Is Russia trying to gain what it sees as jumping off points for a large offensive?

Even if the offensive can't take place for a month or more, Russian shaping operations--if I'm not giving the Russian leadership too much credit--are taking place now. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Failing to aid Ukraine will not mean the war remains stalemated and somehow magically "ends":

Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. US policymakers must internalize the reality that further delaying or stopping American military assistance will lead to dramatic Russian gains later in 2024 and in 2025 and, ultimately, to Russian victory.

Defeat Russia now with money or one day we will fight them with money and blood. Helping Ukraine stop Russia's drive west isn't a gift to Ukraine. It's in America's security interest. Although obviously Ukraine benefits, too, just as America benefited from French help in our Revolution despite the purpose of French help being to hurt Britain.

UPDATE (Tuesday): I'm calling BS on this article arguing negotiations were close to ending the Winter War of 2022 just weeks into Russia's invasion. At best it would have allowed Russia to reload and invade properly. Provisions in the so-called negotiations would have made Ukraine more vulnerable to future conquest. 

As for a multilateral security guarantee, Ukraine had one--the Budapest Memorandum--which Putin ripped up. Oh, but that was just an assurance, the authors say. As if Putin--purportedly panicked about Ukraine's NATO membership, a body that does guarantee security--would have allowed a NATO Lite. And Ukraine thought the assurance they had was good enough to give up its nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR.

Russian "provisional" acceptance of a deal early in the war would probably have just been for the purpose of untangling their logistics during a ceasefire leading to "peace."  

Who are these echelon-above-reality guys, anyway?

UPDATE (Wednesday): Yeah, me too: 

ISW has previously (and not always accurately) assessed how low Russian morale and exhaustion affected the prospects of Russian offensive operations, but Ukraine’s current material shortages may make it difficult for Ukrainian forces to defend against Russian forces — even those that are exhausted and unmotivated.

But Ukraine lacked the ability to attack the Russians soon enough in a large effort when earlier poor morale was evident. If you don't attack you can't really exploit enemy bad morale.

And without American aid, who knows where Ukrainian troop morale could go? Russia is attacking on a broad front, even if in small groups now because of recent casualties.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

Sweden rejected China's path and "considered how its policies would impact society as a whole. It did not just focus on limiting cases of Covid. And it did not ignore the potential long-term effects of lockdown." Significantly, it did not let pandemic narrow "expertise" define policies across its society. Via Instapundit.

Yeah: "The middle three quintiles for household income were overrepresented among [military] enlisted recruits, and the top and bottom quintiles were underrepresented." Leaders show "little tolerance for their way of life or their values", making them pay student loans of college graduates who make more money. 

This politics polarization effect is about Democrats reacting to Trump--not Trump himself: "one [effect] often overlooked is how the 'Resistance' that rose to challenge his polarizing behavior then provided cover for the advancement of a more radical progressivism on the left." Conservatives noticed this TDS. 

A modern country faces this: "Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, ...." Yay electric cars and appliances! Don't worry. We'll limit middle class air conditioning to fuel eco-yachts, eh?

And when stores don't open there because they are too hard to close, progressives will be surprised and--as they tend to be--angry: "The San Francisco Board of Supervisors is considering a remarkable policy that would allow people to sue grocery stores that close too quickly." Related thoughts. Tips to Instapundit. 

After stiff-arming Russia for so long, why now? "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with Chinese officials in China on April 8 and 9 amid Western warnings that China is increasingly helping Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) and even providing China with geospatial intelligence."

We keep getting told that Islamists twist true Islam into an ideology of hate. I can hardly wait for all those Western censoring "misinformation" groups to take up the job of protecting Moslems from that.

My main question is how quickly are the new ships fully integrated to the carrier strike group? 

Mowing the grass: "In its latest update on Operation Inherent Resolve, the ongoing campaign against ISIS, U.S. Central Command said that as of the end of March, the U.S. and partner groups killed 18 ISIS operatives and detained 63 more. 66 of those 94 missions were in Iraq[.]" We estimate 2,500 are still there.

Counter-measures: "Ukrainian forces have rigged an elaborate network of sensors in the country that feeds targeting data to heavy machine guns for downing Russian combat drones, according to analysts." As I said.

Resistance to the Russians in Crimea. I hardly ever see anything about this although I read it exists in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.

The "Death to America! [/spittle]" chant comes to America. To be fair, that has been happening more quietly in long, footnoted articles in America's college faculty lounges for decades, now.

Cheap drones. I believe they exploit a temporary advantage over defenders. Future drones will need to be more complex--and expensive--to overcome future counter-measures. And don't forget that needing large numbers of even cheap drones to get something through is a cost, too. Tip to Instapundit.

Collateral damage to letting Russia defeat Ukraine: "Another problem with [Russia] violating the 1994 treaty is the message it sends to states like Iran. The message is that if you really want to keep invaders out you need nukes."

NATO is expanding a multi-national battalion in Lithuania to a brigade by 2027: "The brigade, to be named Panzerbrigade 45, should be fully operational by 2027, and will consist of a permanent presence of around 4,800 soldiers and around 200 civilian members of the German armed forces and their families."

Real weapon to hit Kerch Strait bridge or planted fake to divert Russian resources? "A mysterious maritime drone (USV) has been discovered in the Black Sea. The capsized vessel marries a U.S. built hull with a Soviet-era [1,100 pound] Russian warhead." Or it could be Russian.

We will have humanoid robots called "synths" (short for "synthetic humanoids") on the market by 2035? That timing is outside my lane. But nobody will call them "synths". That's too uncomfortable to pronounce. If that name somehow persists it will quickly evolve to "sints". Tip to Instapundit.

Trump can't end the Winter War of 2022 in a day. Democrats call for a Palestinian state after the Hamas rape and murder invasion of Israel. I don't want to hear one damn complaint from Democrats about rewarding aggressors with land. Still, Ukraine may one day recoil from the cost of liberating their land.

Good: "In an effort to push back China’s influence and expand its presence in Oceania, the U.S. is renovating Lombrum Naval Base on the Island of Los Negros in Papua New Guinea." Hop on those islands first.

I think focusing on the tragic Abbey Gate "tree" is causing us to miss the "forest" of our self-inflicted defeat. 

I believe I noted this last week: "The Sullivan doctrine, which appears to avoid taking decisive measures against Iranian aggression, heightens the possibility of a war that could lead to the first-ever use of a nuclear strike in the Middle East." Sullivan and his ilk can't help themselves. I call it Smart Diplomacy.®

"Integration sceptics" is a funny term to describe people who don't want to strip away the prefix from the proto-imperial European Union.

Huh: "A poll commissioned by the Henry Jackson Society (HJS), a counter-extremism think-tank, found that 46 per cent of British Muslims said they sympathise with Hamas." We celebrate the contributions to our diverse Western societies by people who come from places with no diversity.

Yep: "all the ills that Planet Earth is and has forever been heir to -- quakes, fires, floods, high winds, rough seas, soil erosion, volcanoes, temperatures well below zero and above 100 -- have triggered an aboriginal, superstitious reaction among the panicky, the feeble-minded, and the credentialed-but-uneducated." Tip.

The Michigan Liquor Control Commission got a sense of the liquor and then looked away rather than focus on control. Tip to Instapundit.

Patriot has come a long way from its shaky 1991 anti-missile debut. 

Remember that DEI isn't really about racial and ethnic diversity. It's about white progressives recruiting racial and ethnic minority auxiliaries who will follow them for the goals of the white progressives.

This helps resist China: "The U.S. Army is introducing a joint battlefield training in the Philippines to improve combat readiness including by ensuring adequate supply of ammunition and other needs in difficult conditions in tropical jungles and on scattered islands, a U.S. general said."

This year was the deadline: "Canada has pledged to increase national military spending by $5.9 billion over the next five years but that spending still will fail to meet the NATO target of contributing 2 percent GDP on defense funding until after 2030, at the earliest." With an Arctic focus. Better late than never.

Israel is making the same mistake in Gaza that America made in Iraq? Since both Obama and Biden agreed we won the war, that's good! Sadly, the victory is overlooked. But the war evolved with a new enemy. Biden has to defend the win.

I enjoyed the eclipse from my patio with a cocktail. The clouds were very thin at maximum eclipse. It was really cool to see the sliver of the sun. The light from the sliver impressed me. But the lighting looked "weird" around me. Sadly, my cameras all showed a full sun disc even at a sliver! Why? My cat slept.

The need for speed: "In March the U.S. Air Force tested its new AGM-183A ARRW (Air launched Rapid Response Weapon) hypersonic missile. ... The missile was launched from a B-52 bomber that took off from an air base on Guam."

Yes, Ukraine has sunk or damaged two of the four in the Black Sea: "Vasily Bykov class corvettes are a relatively recent addition to the Russian fleet. ... The [1,800-ton] class ships are among the most modern warships in the Russian Navy." This buries the lede that Russia doesn't build large new warships. 

The U.S. seized the weapons heading to the Houthi from Iran: "The U.S. government transferred over 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s and over 500,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces" on April 4[.]" 

Smart Diplomacy®: "Iranian diplomatic sources say the US is trying to convince Iran not to retaliate against Israel for its bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria earlier this month[.]" No! Way! No word on pallets of cash. Tip to Instapundit.

It's not that an educated progressive is so laughably wrong on science. It's the accompanying sense of intellectual and moral superiority directed at those who disagree that is annoying. Tip to Instapundit. 

Faulty crime statistics aid gaslighting that crime is fine. That's on top of Blue city and state officials not arresting or prosecuting criminals that already depress statistics. And while crime may not be at 1970s levels, our country is significantly older now. So reaching that peak should be difficult. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia tries to portray NATO as weak and divided to distract from their own problems. I guess Russians ignore the separate argument that Putin had to invade Ukraine because the threat from NATO is so great. 

Uh oh: "The EU may be a global economic and political power, but its military capacity is limited. As European leaders now realise that soft power is not enough, they are finally vowing to change this." Oh, Hell no.

Don't believe the Kremlin-peddled notion that Russia is shrugging off Western sanctions: "It’s true that locking down a large country with extensive natural resources is a work in progress that improves over time. Now we have evidence of exactly that." Sanctions aren't silver bullets. But adding friction is good.

If robots become common on the battlefield, soldiers will need much more powerful rifles to disable or destroy them. And they should be smart rifles, too.

What pro-criminal policies create. Tip to Instapundit.

NPR has been horribly biased for a lot longer than 2016. For work purposes, I used to listen to NPR on my long work commute. Even in the 1990s I noticed that their idea of balanced coverage was a story framed as "Conservatives. Evil? Or just too ignorant to know better?" Tax money should not fund it.

Is America losing the GPS race to China? "While China and the EU have been investing heavily in their GNSS systems, the U.S. military is only making modest improvements to GPS." Hmmm. I thought we were putting our money on better (and miniaturized) inertial location aids to avoid GPS jamming.

Huh: "Serbia is close to signing a deal on the purchase of 12 French Rafale multi-purpose fighter jets, the Serbian president announced Tuesday, in what would mark a shift from its traditional military supplier Russia." Serbia has been Russia's friend. Is that changing? Or is France foolishly arming a threat?

Biden is spending a trillion dollars on climate change. Voters don't think it is a priority. Add one more thing to the list of things like EVs and student loan payments that blue collar people are forced to pay for which only upper income people benefit from financially or emotionally. Tip to Instapundit.

Huh: "Russia is still able to operate several submarines that can submerge to escape attack by Ukrainian armed USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels) ... Now Ukraine is about to receive a land-based weapon that can attack and destroy Russian submarines even if they are submerged." When will USVs carry them?

Russians suffer economically and lose their men on the battlefield. Putin counts on them taking it: "Senior leadership and wealthy Russians don’t suffer and are more willing to keep fighting in Ukraine no matter how many Russians they don’t know are killed there." Tell Russians to take pride in every death.

I will concede that it is possible that Biden is publicly putting verbal pressure on Israel to calm protests to buy Israel more time to destroy Hamas on the battlefield. But the collateral damage of encouraging the pro-Hamas Hitler Appreciation Society in America will harm the world for decades to come.

Head of INDOPACOM very concerned about Second Thomas Shoal clashes between Chinese aggressors and Philippine resupply missions: "'I’m very, very concerned about the direction it’s going,' [Admiral] Aquilino said. 'These actions are dangerous, illegal and they are destabilizing the region.'"

Somehow we scraped up aid until Congress appropriates money: "The State Department has greenlighted an emergency $138 million in foreign military sales for Ukraine to provide critical repairs and spare parts for Kyiv’s Hawk missile systems." But it sounds like Biden won't protect our border to get it. WTAF?

The Code Pink hags get away with "caring" so much. Via Instapundit.

One would hope the answer is no, as the least disturbing answer: "Was Carlson unaware before the interview that the Arab world has been on a decades-long ethnic cleansing of Christians from their ancient communities in the Middle East and North Africa?" Designated victims get away with murder.

Not Banana Republic behavior at all. 

We all fear what a government with the power to reward you might do to punish you. But only the wealthy have plans to evade that: "Wealthy U.S. families are increasingly applying for second citizenships and national residences as a way to hedge their financial risk, according to a leading law firm."

No wall to keep foreigners from entering illegally but a powerful legal Berlin Wall to keep American citizens in: "the so-called 'exit tax' required to renounce citizenship makes it financially prohibitive for most except the ultra-wealthy to simply renounce and declare a new citizenship." Huh.

Blaming "NATO expansion" for the Russia-China "alliance". Seriously? Expansion was not at the expense of Russian territory, which always bordered NATO! Ex-Soviet vassals joined NATO, not wanting Russia to return. Russia got close to China out of fear of China--not of weak NATO. And they aren't allies. 

Iran fears war with Israel or America. But Iran's mullahs beat their chest and fling poo, so our "leaders" cringe about what Iran might do to us rather than plan what we can do to them. Win Iraq War 3.0.

Allies still assume we're with them to the end? "the US [still needs] double deterrence. Preventing a war requires showing China that the US and its allies have the capacity to defend Taiwan, and reminding the island’s leaders that a de jure declaration of independence would be provocative and is unacceptable."

Good! "The U.S. Air Force has awarded a contract for an airfield on Tinian, a Pacific island military leaders consider crucial to their plans in the region." It's about damn time.

Russia needlessly became a threat to NATO and awakened a sleeping giant: "The number of U.S. and NATO troops stationed in Eastern Europe could increase in coming years as Russian threats continue to grow, but American military officials aren’t yet pushing to add more permanent bases in the region[.]"

I commend Biden for this: "The leaders of America and Japan unveiled a lengthy list of defense agreements Wednesday in what U.S. President Joe Biden called 'the most significant upgrade in our alliance since it was first established." I said China would regret posing as a threat to Japan.

The Navy is still facing problems putting 3D printing of metal parts into action.

Good: " The Pentagon is working with private space giant SpaceX and the Ukrainian government to stop Russian forces from using the company’s satellite communications terminals[.]"

An assistant secretary of defense testified that Biden doesn't want Ukraine to strike Russian oil refineries because they are civilian targets. Nonsense. They support the invasion. We knocked out the civilian power grid in Iraq in 1991 because Iraqi air defenses were plugged in. Besides, Austin already gave the reason.

South Korea's KF-21 fighter bomber project. Is it a 4th generation or a 4.5 plane? It doesn't really sound "troubled" from the description.

Hmmm: "With nearly all the expensive weapons gone, both sides quickly turned to UAVs, which were cheaper, easier to obtain and more flexible alternatives." Ukraine has turned to them far more to exploit Russian weaknesses. Is that a unique or general advantage? Is it fleeting? And a static front helps drones.

Nonsense: "Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a public inquiry he found it 'very improbable' the Chinese government would prefer his Liberal Party to win recent elections, given the high tensions between the two countries." It's very probable that China likes Trudeau's Canada that is too militarily weak to do much.

Will the legislative election victory by South Korea's opposition mean a renewed outreach to North Korea with goodies sent north to try to get Kim Jong Un to behave?

Meanwhile in the China-friendly country formerly known as Burma: "Rebel groups in crisis-hit Myanmar have reportedly taken control of the important trading town of Myawaddy on the border with Thailand."

Iran continues its plan to fight Israel to the last Arab, this time in the West Bank: "The Iranians wanted to flood the West Bank with weapons, and they were using criminal networks in Jordan, in the West Bank and in Israel, primarily Bedouin, to move and sell the products[.]"

Marie Harf accused Trump of anti-semitism. Odd charge for a pro-Israel man with Jewish family. And odd from a woman whose party's supporters increasingly support Hamas murderers and rapists. But basically, I find this former Obama staffer repugnant and untrustworthy. I change the channel if she appears.

Yeah: "[Petroleum] products remain 'critical to national security,' two former chairmen of the [JCS said], weighing in on a ... court case in Hawaii that has activists calling on America's top energy companies to pay damages for contributions to climate change." Ukraine and Russia need bombs to destroy oil industry.

America seems to be trying to lose three wars. But what is victory for Biden? Pretending to help Ukraine while blaming Republicans for defeat, appeasing pro-Hamas voters before the election, and pumping pro-Democrats migrants into America may all seem like wins. And don't forget the war already lost.

I think this guy panics too much to justify his existing desire to retreat. My guess is that talk of sending NATO troops to help Ukraine is the NATO version of Russian nuclear sabre rattling to make the other side back off from the war. And Macron has other reasons to pretend to be tough. But I don't trust Cato.

The Taliban have restored barbarism to Afghanistan, despite morons who saw an evolved Taliban. But that's their problem to deal with. Yet if Taliban-ruled Afghanistan exports the barbarism to our shores, it's definitely our problem. Still, given our needless defeat there, this will never get old:

I guess I mostly align with the Classical Primacy School of foreign policy. Neither of the primary dispositions under that category really work for me. If you are wondering and if it matters. I do not think about formally defined schools of thought.

Is it my imagination or are a number of people trying to say that we shouldn't let the unfortunate double-murder thing interfere with a full appreciation of OJ Simpson's varied contributions, on the news of his death? Also, racism. FFS.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is killing it in his Thursday address to a joint session of Congress. From World War II enemy defeated and occupied to today's prosperous ally committed to defending freedom and democracy. Bravo.

Scrutiny: "Lawmakers dug into the Navy's shipbuilding efforts on Wednesday, saying that it is "behind" in providing ships to stay apace of global competition, specifically with China." There is reason to scrutinize Navy leadership.

An interesting view on African-American voting patterns for Democrats despite ideological variance. If segregated social networks cause this, explain pre-FDR votes for Republicans despite similar (and legally enforced) segregated social networks. Lincoln's legacy faded. What could fade now? Tip to Instapundit.

Hmm: "Zelenskyy had previously said at a press conference in late February that Ukraine's plans were 'on the Kremlin's table even before the counteroffensive began.'" Could plans have leaked? Perhaps. But everyone knew where the long-telegraphed offensive was going from open-source information and a map.

In my history education and reading, I can recall no outpouring of Allied grief about the "suffering" of German and Japanese civilians under World War II blockade and bombardment. Gazans remain supportive of the October 7, 2023 Hamas murder and rape invasion. No grief about that suffering is evident.

Despite the panty-flinging at FPV drones, "'The biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery…. Should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying…the lion’s share. Likewise, the air-defense interceptors,' [General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of European Command] said."

And it's a good way to send a message to Venezuela's Maduro to back off his threats to Guyana's resource-rich territory, I suppose. 

An American destroyer has received the first MK 38 MOD 4 30mm Gun Weapon System to fight aerial and surface drones. Excellent. I'd thought of writing an article on installing more automatic weapons to fight them. Glad I didn't waste my time.

China is introduced to the concept of FAFO: "The U.S. is inviting Japan to be a potential partner on part of the trilateral AUKUS pact that aims to deepen top-secret technology sharing and joint development on advanced defense capabilities."

Speaker Johnson is negotiating with the White House to get aid to Ukraine flowing again. It's about time. But will the White House keep throwing Ukraine under the bus to keep our southern border open to smuggling and mass illegal immigration? 

American special forces are exercising in the Arctic: "Here, [SEAL unit commander] Gallagher said, 'the environment can kill you quicker than any enemy.'" I seriously doubt the Russians will be as prepared.

A plea to stay in Iraq. Yes, pressured by Iran, Iraq's Prime Minister al Sudani asked the U.S. to withdraw its troops. But Sudani doesn't actually want us to leave. He knows we'll go if asked and he knows the consequences. So the talks on setting conditions for leaving could drag on for decades, if need be.

Advanced tanks are not silver bullets to win wars. As always, the soldier--properly trained and led by officers with sound tactics and strategy--are the real weapon.

China belatedly realizes pissing off everyone around their periphery is a bad idea: "China's defence minister told his Vietnam counterpart that China is willing to bring the strategic mutual trust between the two militaries to a new level, [especially at sea]." It's not sincere. But it reflects China's dilemma.

Thugs of a feather flock together: "Russia continues to buy weapons from North Korea. This includes about 60 North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine. Ten have been used so far this year."

The EUCOM commander summarized NATO efforts to deter Russia: "including strengthening EUCOM’s eastern flank with rotational force deployments, expanding EUCOM’s pre-positioned stocks, and modernizing EUCOM’s infrastructure to enable a rapid reception of reinforcing forces." 

For all the bluster that gets Westerners to panic, Iran apparently isn't suicidal: "Iran has signalled to Washington that it will respond to Israel's attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily[.]" I've long said they're nutballs but not stupid.

DARPA's entry in the unmanned warship race.

You think you distrust and hate the media enough. You do not: "Reporter Catherine Herridge testifies that CBS News locked her out of the building and seized all her files, says she was working with sources to 'expose government corruption.'" Tell me the government didn't talk to CBS about this. Via Instapundit.

I've endured the taunts over my so-called fashion faux pas. My time has come. 

Don't trust the statistics when someone claims crime is down the last few years. On top of reducing felony crimes to misdemeanors, ordering police to ignore criminals, and prosecutors refusing to prosecute the unlucky criminals arrested, civilians somehow see no point to reporting crime. Tip to Instapundit. 

European navies have problems. At least against Russia, the Europeans would be better than their foes. 

You think you distrust and hate the media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.

China isn't supplying weapons but it has decided to help: "China has surged sales to Russia of machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow in turn is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry for use in its war against Ukraine, according to a U.S. assessment." Why? 

Well darn, I guess the media somehow missed one of those precious chances for a "national conversation" on political violence. Tip to Instapundit. 

Lack of American air defense missiles will hurt Ukraine's ability to replace foreign military aid: "The degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella appears to be offering Russian forces greater opportunities to cause significant damage to Ukrainian critical infrastructure." 

For global sea surveillance: "The U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton is a high-altitude long endurance UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) developed for high seas or coastal surveillance." It's the Navy version of the Global Hawk. Australia operates them. Britain and India are pondering acquisition.

South Korea's growing reputation for providing quality weapons with excellent post-sale services.

I've mentioned once or thrice that Iran bluffs: "Tehran believes it must respond to show its readiness for confrontation but in a calculated manner without causing an escalation or inflicting casualties. Its hesitation to retaliate is an indication that the Islamic Revolution is nothing but a paper tiger." 

A Congressional Budget Office report on the Light Amphibious Warship (LAW) Medium Landing Ship (LSM). I've had thoughts on the BWP.

For decades, city voters have voted for policies that create a "doom loop". It's sad. But I'd tired of caring. Enjoy what you vote for. Good and hard, as they say. Mind you, I'm lucky to live in a city with a large Midwestern university that mutes the effects of stupid government policies.

Yes, government over-reaction and not Covid itself harmed America's economy, education, and society. But don't cite keeping liquor stores open as a sign of government stupidity. Long experience shows that denying alcoholics access to liquor has dangerous effects. That's the sad reality. Tip to Instapundit.

By the Left: "The word 'democracy' appears to have become polite shorthand for insisting that an insular minority in control of the government always knows what is best for the vast, unrepresented majority." It justifies abuse of power. I've long said rule of law is vital for democracy abroad. Now we need reminding.

Conservatives fight differently than progressives because objectives and people are different. I've touched on an aspect of that. And God help us if conservatives simply fight like the Left with their street muscle and disregard for rule of law, seeing it as a means rather than an objective. Tip to Instapundit.

Good: "The German government is supplying another Patriot air defence system to strengthen Kiev, following months of requests by Ukraine[.]" But I don't know what "system" means. A battery? A single launcher?

I often hear that America needs small "starter" homes to help people get into the home ownership game. But don't condominiums essentially play that role to a large degree? Aside from practice on all aspects of home maintenance. 

Stop Russia now: "NATO countries in Europe now realize that Russian threats against them are real. Russian leaders openly proclaim that the conquest and absorption of Ukraine will be followed by attacks on NATO countries. This seems absurd until you consider how unprepared NATO members are for a war."

When you see more things on the battlefield you will see more decoys. But there are ways to see through them. 

First came denial and anger. Now acceptance? 

Ignore losing Afghanistan and limits on Israel and Ukraine fighting aggressors: "The Biden administration on Friday reassured the Philippines anew that the U.S. commitment to the country's defense is steadfast amid increasing concerns about provocative Chinese actions in disputed areas of the South China Sea. 

From the "good if true" files: "A Ukrainian partisan movement operating in the occupied south of the country has reported mass desertions by Russian forces there, with Moscow's troops refusing to carry out combat missions." But if Ukraine can't cross the river and exploit this, it just doesn't matter.

Is Close Air Support Coming or Going?

Is the Air Force going through the motions of preparing for close air support (CAS)  missions by pretending the F-35 can replace the A-10 until the A-10 is finally retired? Or serious about the mission?

I'm skeptical of the Air Force's commitment to close air support for ground troops. 

This is good news if it indicates a leadership decision to maintain CAS capabilities: 

The 25mm automatic cannon nestled inside the F-35A variant of the Joint Strike Fighter is now deemed to be an effective weapon. For years, a host of issues had left these stealth fighters unable to shoot straight. Problems with the 25mm cannon have also been a particularly notable talking point in the still-controversial debate over plans to supplant the venerable A-10 Warthog ground attack jet with the F-35A.

But I'd never use the F-35 to strafe given its high cost, the loss of stealth protection to Mark I eyeball detection (stealth doesn't mean invisible), and the threat of modern ground-based air defenses.

And if the plane needs the cannon for air-to-air combat, things have gone seriously wrong. Although for that bad moment in a pilot's career, I'm happy they'll have that option.

But I digress.

The F-35A is supposedly the future of close air support. Exiting stage right is the hardened A-10 designed specifically for close air support now getting upgrades so it doesn't need to strafe targets in close air support missions:

this includes the addition of advanced precision-guided munitions and updated targeting pods, which will enhance the aircraft's ability to engage moving targets with greater accuracy. The upgrades will also allow the A-10C to better support ground forces in complex, contested environments.

I assume conducting "close" air support in complex, contested environment means using stand-off precision weapons rather than its original low-and-slow approach to close air support when air defense weapons are more primitive. By that metric, yes the F-35 is better than the A-10 designed for low-level CAS.

To deal with better air defenses, the A-10 is getting defensive improvements:

Given the A-10C's role in close air support, survivability enhancements are a critical aspect of its upgrade. The aircraft is receiving improved armor and defensive systems to protect against ground-based anti-aircraft threats. These improvements will ensure that the A-10C can continue to operate effectively in high-threat environments, providing crucial support to ground forces.

Notwithstanding the apparent intent to use the A-10 in high-threat environments, I assume those survivability enhancements are mostly for its role in fighting irregular enemies. Unless the Air Force is setting up the plane for failure.

But how long will the A-10 be in the Air Force fleet? 

The ongoing upgrades are part of a broader effort to extend the service life of the A-10C fleet well into the future. Despite discussions about its retirement, the Air Force has committed to keeping the Warthog operational due to its unique capabilities and the vital role it plays in supporting ground operations. The enhancements will ensure that the A-10C remains a formidable asset in the U.S. military's arsenal for years to come.

How many "years"? Three? Ten? Define "well into the future," please.

Still, the Air Force is at least pretending to want to conduct close air support for ground troops a little more convincingly. That's progress, I suppose. The Air Force is good at it when it is committed to it, as it was during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But that was the only game in town. Now fighting for control of the skies and deep strikes against peer competitors is on the table.

I've long been a fan of the A-10. But I concede the old plane isn't up to the task against modern air defenses using its original means of providing close air support. But strangely, the Air Force seems to be pretending that the F-35 can do the job at low level, too.

I want CAS to mean how close to friendly troops the Air Force can safely place ordnance on the enemy when requested--not flying low enough for pilots to wag their wings at appreciative troops on the ground.

I will begin to regain my lost trust if the Air Force sets up F-35A squadrons dedicated to close air support rather than claiming general purpose squadrons can include CAS in their entire range of mission capabilities. If the Air Force does the latter, perhaps we need a major change in close fires support.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.