I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and sharing links. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I'm also occasionally posting short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
I think I missed noting this last week: "The U.S. military struck more than a dozen Houthi targets in Yemen on
Friday, attacking the Iranian proxy’s bases and weapons systems,
according to the Pentagon." But occasional strikes are just military spasms rather than a campaign designed to win.
I have interest in but not expertise on football. Michigan's loss to a highly motivated Washington hurt. We could have won. I've known our team isn't as good as the championship team. And Texas was just too good. We have the potential to be better by November. Right now I'll be happy with four losses. Go Blue.
Killing Nasralah will might Israel less safe. LOL. Another entry in the "Let the Wookie win" genre. Also, killing one fanatical jihadi enemy is never decisive. That's why you relentlessly kill more.
I noted an author who said tube artillery is obsolete in the face of rocket artillery. Ukraine seems to disagree.
Could be: "China’s
rapid buildup of nuclear assets could be much larger than current U.S.
government assessments, according to former Pentagon strategic affairs
analyst Mark B. Schneider." I don't assume they are they aimed at America.
Jihadis find the Infidel-adjacent hiding in plain sight: "In neighboring Burkina Faso, al Qaeda JNIM Islamic terrorists based in
Mali, attacked on the outskirts of Barsalogho town and shot dead over
500 civilians. ... The JNIM gunmen
quickly returned unharmed to their Mali sanctuary."
Even the most depraved mass murderers and rapists can attract fanboys (and girls) in the free West. Tip to Instapundit.
A CRS report to Congress on the Marine Corps Force Design transformation.
Oh no! We might be helping an ally fight common enemies?? "Military officials discuss whether sending more force to the Middle East
is helping to prevent a much wider war, or emboldening Israel." That violates every principle of Smart Diplomacy!® The horror.
WTAF? The military should not focus on climate change. It does distract from preparing to fight and win wars. The military's job is to fight in whatever climate it is in and in whatever the weather is that week. As I learned, "It doesn't rain in the Army. It rains on the Army." She got a DOD medal for her work ...
SPOILER ALERT: South Korea will pay more: "The United States and South Korea have tentatively agreed to a new deal
covering the costs of maintaining the American military presence there,
the U.S. State Department and South Korean foreign ministry announced
Friday." I guess it's okay to do that now.
More on Britain's well-telegraphed retreat from Diego Garcia: "While the UK and US retain a key strategic military base in the Indian
Ocean, the two governments remain apprehensive over the security of the
island." We should be apprehensive.
Does Iran still care about its proxies? Huh? What's this "still" stuff you speak of?
Russia's capture of the long-defended town of Vuhledar is not itself a huge loss. But it is one more small loss across the front that reflects the pressure Ukraine's military is under. Yeah, losing the initiative will do that.
To be fair, the EU royalty prefers to be weepy over dead Jewish victims than to admire Jews for defending themselves against monsters. No real outrage for Hamas using Gazans as human shields.
European NATO states around and overlooking the Baltic Sea are coming together to resist Russian aggression. Also, never trust the EU if it says it wants to help.
Brief thoughts on Substack on the anniversary of the Hamas murder-and-rape invasion of Israel.
While the question of America's continued military aid to Ukraine is all we see, Europeans are looking shaky, too, despite their ample aid leaning toward economic and financial support rather than weapons and ammo as America provides. We need to keep all the aid flowing.
In addition to cash to develop drones, "The Netherlands will deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine over the
coming months, with the Dutch defense minister acknowledging for the
first time that the handover of 24 warplanes to the embattled country is
underway."
Our shipyards should stand next to Russia's to look better: "For
commercial ships, Russia depends on foreign builders, [especially China and South Korea]. Russian ship
building efforts have long been crippled by poor management, corruption
and an inadequate number of qualified workers."
Strategypage writes that the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) might be salvaged with the Mark 79 payload delivery system that can hold anti-ballistic missile missiles. I suspect that's a typo and they mean the Mark 70 PDS, which has been tested on the LCS. I assumed the LCS was just a useful test platform. Maybe not.
This writer says of the war Hamas began on October 7, 2023: "The fight for civilisation is only just beginning[.]" In truth, we should call the beginning of that fight for civilization September 11, 2001. How's our resolve to fight evil going? Can you really say it took until a year ago to falter?
Israel has only barely begun land operations against Hezbollah inside Lebanon and already the "quagmire" word has been deployed. But if this is essentially a months-long large raid to pillage and plunder anything related to Hezbollah before returning to Israel, the quagmire issue doesn't even arise.
Taiwan needs to take its defense seriously. Preaching to the TDR choir, he is.
Sure: "History shows that events that shock and surprise tend to follow
not-so-subtle precursors foreshadowing them. It’s only a question of
whether we’re willing to listen." But as I've said, surprise is generally about giving enough clues for the enemy to believe what they really want to believe.
How much humanitarian aid is Hamas stealing? If it isn't 100% I'll be somewhat shocked. Humanitarian aid is generally the logistics arm of non-state terror groups.
Did Brexit break the European Union by removing a champion of national independence resisting "federalism"? Orban has a point on that. But even Britain is too small to resist the proto-empire. I worry more that Britain was permanently infected by continental autocratic impulses while it was in the EU.
Does China have a naval base in Cambodia, notwithstanding Cambodian denials?
A war by any other name: "A Chinese cutter blasted a Philippine fisheries vessel with its water
cannon at Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on Tuesday morning,
officials in Manila said on Tuesday."
Ah, I assumed APS could protect from drones but didn't know if they did: "Israeli defense contractor Rafael has equipped its Trophy active
protection system with a top-attack defense capability, closing a
vulnerability against drones and missiles that has plagued even heavily
armored vehicles[.]"
The Mirage 2000-5 fighters France is providing Ukraine early next year will function as bombers.
NATO states are scrambling to build air defenses after seeing paranoid Russia go after Ukraine with such enthusiasm. But remember that the most effective suppression of enemy air defenses consists of your troops capturing their air defense sites.
It is a rump empire, after all: "The Ethiopian civil war continues to be marked by significant turmoil
and humanitarian crises. Despite numerous international efforts to
broker peace, the conflicts between government forces and various
regional factions show little sign of abating." Is the turmoil explosive?
Hmmm: "North Korea’s military has said it would completely sever road and
railway connections to South Korea as a 'self-defensive measure' in the latest sign of deteriorating relations between the two countries." They are weak and paranoid enough to fear a fantasy invasion. But they aren't totally wrong.
At first I thought my drone fighter concept for drone defense had been adopted with the Roadrunner-M weapon. But that anti-drone drone is only reusable if it doesn't destroy the target and instead returns to base. But hey, with its speed and range, could it have anti-missile capabilities?
Well that's your problem, right there! "Another US Strike in Yemen But Little Evidence Military Operations Are Deterring Houthis[.]" The "deterrence" ship sailed long ago. We failed. Now we need--but aren't getting--a serious campaign to destroy the Houthi sea threat.
How nuanced and sophisticated: "For a long time, both Berlin and Brussels refused to believe Iran was
pursuing a policy of aggression in the Middle East and that it was
supporting terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, which had
been able to operate in Europe undisturbed for decades."
Hmmm: "North Korea is likely to deploy members of its regular armed forces to
Ukraine in support of Russia, South Korea's defense chief said Tuesday,
in the latest sign of deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang
and Moscow." It makes sense for Kim to pay Putin to kill off potential rebels.
The Pentagon wants drones now: "It is feared that the Ukrainian
drone revolution may be slow in actually reaching Americans soldiers and
marines." I worry that Ukraine's experience is too unique in its military balance between Russia and Ukraine and this moment in time to justify this approach.
Lithuania is putting obstacles, demolition charges, and fortifications backed by fires to defend their Nemen River border with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.
Friends: "Indian and Italian aircraft carriers
carried out a joint exercise last weekend in the Arabian Sea ahead of
naval exercise Malabar 2024, which began in Visakhapatnam, India, on
Tuesday. "
It only just occurred to me, but does North Korea's cutting of transportation links and the construction of defenses on the DMZ reflect reduced North Korean military capacity after selling Russia so much artillery ammunition?
Friends: "The amphibious assault ship Boxer
and elements of the embarked 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit are now
operating in the Philippines providing disaster relief assistance in the
aftermath of Typhoon Krathon that devastated the islands last month."
Poor Philippines. So close to China. So far from America.
Russia has suffered 600,000+ total casualties: "The U.S. official said Russia sustained more casualties in September of
this year than at any other point in the war, and explained it was
important to disclose the casualties even if it is not a 'definitive
metric' of success in the conflict." True. Can Russia sustain this?
The foundation of our military power--our economy--may be over-estimated. When a metric of measurement becomes politically important, the metric will be corrupted to benefit those who benefit from the metric. It may be more pronounced in communist systems. But it's a general problem. Via Instapundit.
A new 30mm chain gun with twin belt feeds.
The Army wants more personnel to effectively use space assets that support the Army.
Apparently it could have the same cargo load as a C-130: "Aurora Flight Sciences on Oct. 8 unveiled new details of a notional
operational variant of the fan-in-wing concept it is proposing for a
high-speed, vertical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL) X-Plane." But at what price?
Autonomous, robot, mine hunter: "Raytheon’s Barracuda Mine Neutralization
System has successfully completed its first hydrodynamic test, bringing
it closer to full-scale production and fielding."
American Strike Eagles flow to CENTCOM as Israel weighs its strike options on Iran after Iran's October 1st missile barrage. Israel has to balance different factors in this response.
Rather than gloat over the Chinese submarine sinking at its pier, "the biggest take-away from this story is the potential expansion of China’s nuclear submarine production capacity."
Chinese recon on Camp Grayling: "Federal law enforcement has charged five recent University of Michigan
graduates who were found taking photos near a military base hundreds of
miles from campus." Tip to Instapundit. I spent time there. I still have a thread-bare t-shirt for the place.
I dispute the assumption that break-away regional government harm stability in Somalia rather than defend it from a formal "national" government that creates instability by undermining the regional governments.
Motive? "Egypt’s involvement in Somalia is driven by its strategic interest in maintaining regional stability and countering terrorism." How selfless of the Egyptians! As those Egyptian authors are eager to portray. Don't forget opportunity.
I wrongly assumed this would be a "strength through retreat" essay. Keep our bases: "We should, however, work with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman
and Egypt to identify bases as far to the west as possible where we can
deploy aircraft, maintenance capabilities, refueling capabilities and
weapons."
Ryukyu Islands: "The defense chiefs of the United States and Japan reaffirmed their
commitment to expand military presence in a chain of strategic Western
Pacific Ocean islands located near China." As long as the troops aren't pre-island hopped for China's convenience.
NATO rattles back at Russia: "NATO
will hold a long-planned major nuclear exercise next week, the
alliance’s chief said Thursday, a few weeks after President Vladimir
Putin announced changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine to discourage Ukraine’s Western allies from supporting attacks on his country."
Looking north: "The United States and its allies in the Arctic need to increase the
number of sensors, patrols and intelligence sharing in the region to
contain the expansion of Russian and Chinese forces in the far north,
defense leaders said at the meeting this week."
Raytheon "was fined $200 million because ... between
2017 and 2023 allowed Russia, China, Iran and other foreign countries to
hack the laptop computers of [subsidiary] employees ... containing technical details of the [F-22, Aegis BMD
(Ballistic Missile Defense), B2 , F-18, and F-35]." FFS.
Remember when the argument was that American "occupation" just prevents locals from peacefully sorting out their differences? Yeah: "Libya has been chaotic since dictator Muammar Gaddafi was ousted from
office and killed in 2011. That was followed by a persistent civil war
that continues."
Will there be wars for the resources of the polar regions?
Living, let alone fighting, in such harsh climate is very difficult. If
there is war it will be by small, specially equipped and trained
forces. I've long thought a Polar Command should be established to guide the defense of the Arctic. Lessons would transfer south.
Good: "In a belated recognition that China has cornered the construction of
ocean-going commercial vessels, those ships crucial to secure sea-borne
supply chains, the United States is this year turning to its Asian
allies to help it catch up in a hurry and thwart another geopolitical
threat." Laying the keels is key.
Fear: "Tehran is threatening in secret diplomatic backchannels to target the
oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other American allies in the Middle East
if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran, said Arab officials." The logical outcome of choosing to be the weak horse. Allies worry we'll forgive Iran.
Indeed: "The West’s obsessive search for diplomatic 'off-ramps' and its fear of escalation and the use of force have only encouraged the burgeoning aggression from Tehran." Ah, Smart Diplomacy.® Iran is a Gordian Knot. Yet Democrats stubbornly insist it is a friend we haven't tried hard enough to make.
Good for dog fighting, too: "The X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV-7) will begin executing a series of
novel maneuvers, called aerobraking, to change its orbit around Earth
and safely dispose of its service module components in accordance with
recognized standards for space debris mitigation[.]"
Russia can't get components for its Su-57 "stealth" fighter. Whatever. It was only a propaganda project with frontal stealth, at best. Their next "stealth" fighter had a much better name!
Importing a terrorist: "Biden-Harris team was flagged for weak vetting of Afghan refugees, now one is charged in terror plot[.]" Instead of withdrawing vetted local allies, Biden hid our defeat with volume.
Putin's shaky economy: "The government has concealed these
challenges to some extent through measures to boost wages, consumption
and production, leading to several months of strong growth. However,
recent GDP data and other indicators point to a slowdown as supply and
demand imbalances emerge."
The Navy struggles to cope with sailor shortages. The problem is worse because ships were already crewed without a margin of error in the post-Cold War search for efficiency. Extended ship deployments don't help.
What's up with the virtual news blackout from Cuba? Cue the "it isn't true communism" assertions.
Erdogan is wrecking Turkey. I guess the question is how badly and how soon will it crash? Will Erdogan go full rogue to avoid the blame? What convenient enemy will suffice? And please tell me we've removed our nukes from Incirlik. Or at least let the warheads go inert from lack of needed maintenance.
Iran doesn't threaten any American core interest? Wrecking oil exports to our trade partners doesn't matter? Terrorism doesn't matter? Undermining Iraq? Waging war on Israel? The sheer evil of the mullahs? That whole "Great Satan" outlook doesn't matter if Iran gets nukes? Just who is that apologist?
I don't think the West looks at Azerbaijan fondly because of oil. I think it is because Azerbaijan has tensions with Iran over territory and has worked with Israel. Add in that it formerly didn't appear to be a military threat to Armenia--which hosted Russian troops, too. But things change.
Does Israel's alliance with America prevent Israel from doing what it needs to completely defeat Hamas? That's plausible given that I think a lot must be done over many decades to achieve victory.
The hubris of blaming Sykes-Picot for Middle East borders and problems and then thinking we can "correct" that by redrawing boundaries without creating all new problems is breathtaking. Whatever problems created more than a century ago are affected by adaptation for over a century. Leave it alone.
I have no particular position on Trump's plans to fix our flag officer problem--and no reason to trust the report about the plans--but we absolutely need a good old-fashioned Roman decimation of some sort. Where's the accountability for failure?
Way outside your lane, general. Retired or not, you have responsibilities from your rank.
I keep wondering if there are options for attacking across the now-drained Kakhovka Reservoir. There's a lot of land there now. And few troops apparently defend that section of the front. It's been 16 months since the dam was blown. How long does it take to dry out for movement? Can logistics be sustained across it?
Russia plans for a long war. But plans don't survive contact with the enemy. If Putin is counting on the election of Trump to save him, he'll likely be disappointed. But I doubt Putin counts on one party running out of steam--or even just America. The Trump factor seems like a Western bias projected on Putin.
Israel face a difficult choice of bombing Iran or Iran getting nuclear weapons? If that's the choice Israel believes it has, it is no choice at all. Israel bombs Iran's nuclear facilities and kills as many Iranian scientists and engineers as possible.
Is America's strategic nuclear weapon force vulnerable to a first strike? This is specifically about bombers on runway alert. The expensive solution is to go back to airborne alert. And hardened command and control facilities. Are we ready to fly active nukes just in case? Surviving looks threatening, too.
Huh: "The Persian Gulf nation of Qatar has ordered several M23 class miniature submarines from an Italian firm." The payload is two torpedoes and 6 passengers, usually special forces. Iran and North Korea have similar subs.
Space: "The United States and other space-faring nations are seeking a solution
to the growing amount of items in LEO (Low Earth Orbit), this includes
satellites and debris. ... there is not yet any agreement on how to do it, who will do it
and how it will be paid for."
