Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Is Hezbollah's Syria Distraction Ending?

Hezbollah has guided rockets as part of their massive rocket arsenal in southern Lebanon:

Hassan Nasrallah told supporters it did not matter what the Israelis did to try to cut supply routes because the group already possessed "precision rockets".

He did not produce evidence of this.

Israel, which in 2006 fought a war with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, has conducted air strikes in Syria aimed at stopping Iran supplying its ally with advanced weaponry.

The fact that Hezbollah hasn't launched another rocket campaign against their primary enemy Israel since 2006 surprises me. The war in Syria has certainly been a good excuse since 2012 given the large role Hezbollah troops have been ordered by Iran to play as Assad shock troops.

With rebels going down in western Syria, will Hezbollah focus south on Israel again? Will Iran let Hezbollah do that? Or even order them to attack Israel?

Or has Iran decided that they need a nuclear deterrent to protect Hezbollah before ordering Hezbollah to open fire?

Will Israel strike first? Although time is running out to take advantage of Hezbollah's Syria adventure.

If Israel doesn't strike and Hezbollah remains quiet, I may have to reassess my judgment that Israel screwed the pooch in 2006. Notwithstanding the terrible military performance by Israel on the ground, perhaps the pounding Israel inflicted on Hezbollah and Lebanon's infrastructure in 2006 really has had a significant deterrent effect after all.