Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Descending the Escalation Ladder

If the rebels were smart, they'd prepare to scatter and go to ground when the Assad forces attack and end the last significant territorial control the rebels exercise in western Syria. But no, they'd rather die in place:

They dug trenches around towns, reinforced caves for cover and put up sand bags around their positions. They issued calls to arms, urging young men to join in the defense of Idlib, the Syrian province where opposition fighters expect to make their last stand against Russian- and Iranian-backed government troops they have fought for years.

This time, it's "surrender or die."

Those aren't their only options.

The rebels are making it easy for Assad's shaky army to use firepower to kill their way to final victory in the west. Failing to go insurgent at this point and wait for another opportunity to seize territory is a decision to die.

Still, that might be what the rebels are preparing for despite the "surrender or die" image:

Al-Mustafa, the National Front spokesman, said the rebels are prepared for a battle he called "existential."

But, he added, "our cause will not end if we lose this battle."

Unless this is an expression of an "Inshallah" moment of accepting their fate as Allah wills it, perhaps insurgency is their Plan B.

Still, I'm just glad we didn't militarize the conflict back in 2012. Things might have gotten much worse, eh?

UPDATE: Uh oh:

A Russian military spy plane carrying 15 over the Mediterranean Sea was downed Monday by an anti-aircraft missile from Syrian forces, prompting finger pointing by Moscow over what is called an "intentional provocation" by Israel.

Syria fired the missile. Russia might have a point that Israeli planes were too close to the Russian plane--if Russia's version is accurate.

Israel has no reason to risk Russian lives given their common goals against Iran.

UPDATE: More. Israel says their planes were back in Israeli air space at the time of the strike and the Russians seem like they want to avoid a crisis with Israel as much as the Russians want to avoid blaming the Syrians,