I continue to assume that Russian pretense not to have any troops in Crimea is based on their ability to have up to 25,000 troops in Sevastopol under their lease (and they probably have under 21,000 there, including two airborne regiments and a naval infantry regiment) while militias bolstered by phantom Russian troops (Spetsnaz and contract mercenaries) and Crimean Interior Ministry troops largely exert the limited control we see.
I think the Russians probably sent an Interior Ministry regiment into Crimea, which technically isn't the army so Putin can continue to say his military hasn't invaded Crimea. Perhaps these Russians form the core of the "Crimean" Interior Ministry troops. But that's just a guess that I don't assume is accurate.
This is the force that will complete the occupation of Crimea after the referendum.
If Interior Ministry forces took over Strilkovye, which lies in Ukraine north of Crimea along the Sea of Azov, Putin can deny invading Ukraine, too, I suppose. At least in his mind. If he can do that, he can occupy Kharkov and Donetsk, too, while denying he is invading.
I read a news story that said Russia might take up to a year to accept Crimea into Russia, which I can only hope is true. If so, Ukraine might be able to launch a counter subliminal invasion to set up rival strongpoints to try to link up with their besieged bases in Ukraine and wage a war of outposts that tries to exert control without shooting.
Which is why I'd annex immediately if I was Russia. Give your enemies time and they might use it.
The subliminal (for now) war goes on.
UPDATE: Crimean separatists claim their troops captures Strilkovye:
Crimea's separatist government said the forces in Strilkove were its own "self-defense forces" sent to defend a gas pumping station.
They said that anyway. Whether it is true is another matter. Whether the outcome depends on whether the troops are local militias rather than Russian troops is another question. Either way, it goes with Crimea unless the Ukrainians can muster the ability to counter-attack and take this village back.
UPDATE: This article says the Russians had the right to house only 12,500 troops in Sevastopol:
[Acting defense minister Ihor] Tenyukh accused Moscow of going far beyond an agreed limit on servicemen which he said was 12,500 for 2014. "Unfortunately, in a very short period of time, this 12,500 has grown to 22,000. This is a crude violation of the bilateral agreements and is proof that Russia has unlawfully brought its troops onto the territory of Crimea," he said.
Although Putin is basing his fiction of not invading on so many incorrect facts that one more is no big deal to him, I suppose.
