Wednesday, February 13, 2013

RUMORINT

Does this rise above the level of rumor intelligence?

If [a source that has been accurate in the past] is indeed the case, and its story of major troop movements and mobilization of various types of military vehicles and artillery into the Fujian and Zhejian provinces, bordering the East China Sea and closest to the Diaoyu islands, is accurate, then hostilities between China and Japan may be about to take major turn for the worse.

Movements of ground troops with armored vehicles doesn't make sense, however. A conflict over the Senkaku Islands just wouldn't call for armor--or many troops at all. China wouldn't need to telegraph war preparations with ground troop movements.

At the very least, the story could reflect a growing sentiment in China that war is not out of the realm of possibility.

Or rather than meaning a war is intended, the Chinese might think that a short and victorious clash that quickly ends with Chinese troops holding the islands is all it will take to teach the Japanese a lesson.

Honestly, Taiwan is more of a target for army mobilization.