Wednesday, December 05, 2012

The Tensions are High and the Emperor is Not Far

I suppose it is slightly less alarming that Peking was behind the local police rules that take effect in the new year that will allow police to board ships in the South China Sea than to find that a provincial government could start a war. But it could be warfare, regardless of who starts it.

Those police rules that Hainan will enforce? That's just national policy masquerading as local police powers:

New Chinese regulations allowing police to board vessels deemed to be breaking the law off the southern island of Hainan were a provincial-level initiative, but Beijing likely signed off on them, an official said on Wednesday.

China is in an increasingly angry dispute with neighbors including the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia over claims to parts of the potentially oil and gas-rich South China Sea and U.S. Ambassador Gary Locke said the United States was seeking clarification on the new rules.

This is deadly serious stuff. Strategypage may not be guilty of hyperbole with this headline:

The War With China Begins On January 1st

China could try to take the weakest link, the Philippines, and scare the rest of the South China Sea claimants into rushing to cut deals with China.

China is feeling much more powerful these days. But we'd still smash them up in a full-blown fight. Do the Chinese generals understand that feeling far more powerful than they were in their career is not the same as being more powerful than us?

Or will the Chinese back down in the end, content to have pushed their claims a little more, scared smaller states that they might face China alone, and be prepared to keep pushing until they get what they want in the vaguely defined future?