Wednesday, December 12, 2012

One-Two Punch

North Korea fired off a long-range missile and it appeared to work:

The rocket was launched just before 10 a.m. (0100 GMT), according to defense officials in South Korea and Japan, and was more successful than a rocket launched in April that flew for less than two minutes.

The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said that it "deployed an object that appeared to achieve orbit", the first time an independent body has verified North Korean claims.

Iran no doubt will now put down a non-refundable deposit.

Of course, Pyongyang had best charge a hefty price, because the usual shakedown suspects are tired of being bullied:

For almost two decades, North Korea’s Kim dynasty ran a reasonably successful extortion racket based on the theory that South Korean, Japanese and American leaders would appease the hereditary dictatorship rather than accept the material, moral and global economic risks a war in East Asia entails. The Kim mob’s crude bargain has been, “Give us food and fuel, and we won’t kill a bunch of people.”

Over the last three to four years, however, South Korea and Japan have sent strong signals that appeasement is over. Mainstream Japanese politicians openly discuss acquiring offensive weapons as a means of combating North Korea’s missile threat.

North Korea's game worked only when rich targeted nations were too frightened to respond. Sure, North Korea could eventually nuke somebody if their regime isn't destroyed before they can mount a warhead on one of those missiles. But we, South Korea, or Japan might shoot it down. And then we'd destroy North Korea's regime.

I assume we'd focus on regime and military targets and use conventional weapons. Although I think we'd need to use at least one nuclear weapon on some military target in order to maintain nuclear deterrence. (Who will believe we'd retaliate in the future if we don't respond in kind to a North Korean attack?)

In the meantime, who will want to send food to North Korea? Sending minimal food was only useful to string North Korea along to keep them from attacking until their country collapsed or their military potential eroded to eliminate that threat. It has gotten to the point where North Korea's conventional military options are basically gone.

So I hope that the North Koreans enjoy the taste of this missile test, because they'll be eating pride in their glorious leader for the next several years, and not much else.

UPDATE: Iran has noticed:

Iran "congratulates the [North Korea] people and the government" for "the successful launching of the satellite-carrying rocket," Iranian brigadier general Massoud Jazzayeri said.

I'm sure they are also wondering if they get a volume discount.