Projections of our declining power, released in “Global Trends 2030” report by the National Intelligence Council, are nothing to panic about:
The report says China is likely to surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy in the 2020s. It says China’s and India’s current economic rises will "dwarf" the rises of the United States and Japan in the 20th century.
The report says Europe, Japan, and Russia are expected to continue in slow economic decline, in part because of aging populations.
The study predicts that violent acts of Islamic terrorism will be less frequent by 2030. But it says cyberterrorist attacks are likely to increase and conflicts over resources such as water could lead to instability.
In what it describes as a “likely tectonic shift,” the report also says the United States, one of the world’s biggest energy importers, is expected to become energy independent.
It cites the United States regaining its position as the world’s largest natural-gas producer and producing more crude oil through the use of “hydraulic fracturing technology.”
The report said the United States most likely will remain “first among equals” among the other great powers by 2030 “because of its preeminence across a range of power dimensions.”
However, it says with the rapid rise of other countries, the era of U.S. ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 is "fast winding down."
Before World War II, we were the dominant economic power but mostly irrelevant in international power relations. We had a Navy and that was about it.
After World War II, which devastated the rest of the world, we were the last man standing with any economic power. We dominated the world as no other nation has.
But as the Cold War went on and the rest of the world recovered from the war, our relative power declined. By the 1970s, far from dominating the globe, our power was hopefully enough to defend Western Europe and South Korea from invasion, but it was an uncertain thing.
Then lightning struck twice, and the Soviet Union collapsed as the Warsaw Pact left the empire in 1989 and then the Soviet Union's continental empire fragmented in 1991. Once again, we were the last man standing. Again we dominated the world.
Strangely enough, the rest of the world did not react by aligning to contain us. But our relative power is not immune to what other countries do, even if we were single-minded in maintaining our power. China in particular is growing in power, but is not the only portion of the planet increasing in power.
But China is the only major player that could be hostile to us, really. And they face tremendous constraints on their power in contrast to our secure geographical position.
Indeed, nearly five years ago, I made a global power projection out to 2040, and it seems pretty close to this projection. I missed the oil and gas fracking development, but did project North American energy growth insulating us from the Middle East somewhat.
So our position will be better than it was in 1940. Our economy may be smaller than China's. But on a per-capita basis we will be superior. And our military power will be stronger than anyone else's military power, along with the advantage of having few local threats to tie that power down.
We think we have problems, but they don't compare to China's and Europe's:
We [Stratfor] have written extensively on why we think the European and Chinese crises are insoluble, and I won't repeat that here. What I am saying is not that Europe or China will disappear into a black hole but that each will change its behavior substantially. Europe will not become a united entity but will return to the pursuit of the interests of individual nations, though still in a wealthy continent. China will continue to be a major economic power, but its term as the leading growth engine in the world will end, causing institutional crises. Again, these powers will not fall off the map, but they will radically change their behaviors and expectations.
Further, we can't make Europe be a stable and unified state any more than we can make China the same. I don't think we really have an interest in either, by the way. We want them prosperous and peaceful, of course. But other than that? Good luck guys:
When we consider the core architecture of the international system, it becomes readily apparent that the United States can do nothing to preserve it. The strategy of allowing nature to take its course is not so much an option chosen as it is a reality imposed. What will evolve from this will evolve on its own. Europe will return to the order that existed prior to World War II: sovereign nation states pursuing their own interests, collaborating and competing. China will remain an inward-looking country, trying to preserve its institutions in a new epoch. The United States will observe.
And past performance is no guarantee of future performance if China does pass us by in GDP.
Heck, lightning might strike a third time and leave us the last man standing again.
Oh, let me revise my first sentence: If you are an American, don't panic.
