Friday, November 09, 2012

Rock Soup

If the plan is for Mali troops to spearhead the drive north against the Tuaregs and jihadis, We really need to move on to Plan F.

The Mali military believes it will need foreign air power to dislodge the Tuareg separatists and their jihadi allies in northern Mali:

"International forces will not do the ground fighting, that role will belong to the Malian army," a military officer familiar with the plan, who asked not to be named, said on Friday.

"Air strikes will be the responsibility of the international force," he said, adding foreign partners would also provide logistical and intelligence support and soldiers and police to secure areas captured by the Malian army.

Oh, and foreign logistics, intelligence, and ground troops to secure the regions the shock troops of the Mali army at the tip of the spear.

But other than that, it will be Mali leading the charge.

This is fantasy world thinking. Yes, foreign air power, intelligence, and logistics are necessary.

But the Malian troops will be doing well to secure areas captured by whatever army captures cities and towns in the north.

I think that the primary job for securing captured urban areas will be done by the ECOWAS troops who, while not much better trained than the Mali troops, will have the advantage of not having conflicted loyalties in the suspended Mali civil war that allowed the Tuaregs to capture the north in the first place--and then allowed the jihadis to move in.

I suppose the Tuaregs are a wild card here. Could their help if they decisively turn on the jihadis provide enough ground power--if well supported by foreign special forces calling in that foreign air power--to defeat the jihadis?

What price would Mali's government be prepared to pay for that help? Are enough Tuaregs horrified by the jihadis to accept a deal with Mali's government that falls short of independence for the north?

Securing the north--if there is any hope for it being done swiftly--really needs the French to commit a Foreign Legion regiment. Then we're talking real soup.