The reality of the US budget crisis and dysfunctional politics in Washington is unlikely to reassure the region. Meanwhile, the ballyhooed return of the US to Cam Ranh Bay may be less than meets the eye. ...
Hanoi knows that the huge US base did not prevent the Americans from losing the Vietnam war or, for that matter, the Soviet successors to the base did nothing to protect Vietnam against China.
Oh, please. Even if our defense budget is slashed, unless we try to maintain our force levels at the expense of training and readiness, even our smaller military--focused on Asia and the Pacific from both the western Pacific and CENTCOM in the Middle East--will be strong enough to give China more than enough of a fight. Our pivot may simply mean that non-Asia allocated assets shrink even more to maintain assets for Asia. Further, our budget difficulties won't last forever. That dysfunctional politics the author refers to is otherwise known as democracy debating what to do about our budget crisis.
As for the possibility that we could use Cam Ranh Bay, the author is simply wrong. We beat the North Vietnamese to a standstill while we fought there. We lost because of truly dysfunctional politics in Washington that prevented us from supporting our South Vietnamese allies. As for the Soviets not saving Vietnam from China, who says?
Having a superpower ally surely limited the duration and scope of China's invasion of Vietnam. China always had to look over their shoulder to see what the Soviets were doing on their common border. And China had to worry about what Moscow might do if China really started to win that fight. That is always the risk when nuclear-armed superpowers are on opposite sides of a fight--escalation and scope are limited.
So no, having America as an ally with access to Cam Ranh Bay won't shield Vietnam from China's wrath. But American support will be a factor that will give China second thoughts about starting a fight and worries about how long a fight should last if started as well as what objectives can be safely pursued. And China will have to worry about what happens after a limited fight. Will America provide more advanced weapons to stop another invasion? Will American troops deploy to Vietnam?
The ideas that our budget crisis will prevent us from backing our pivot or that our friendship is worthless are just silly. Even with the budget cuts cited that might occur, our defense budget will still dwarf China's. The debate over our relative strengths will still involve how easily we can operate in Asia and not how easily China can operate off North America and Australia.
And the idea that our power is irrelevant is nonsense. It may not protect everything and it may not always work, but we're a good friend to have. Our pivot to the Pacific is real. And it's spectacular!
