When Mali's Tuareg nomads launched a rebellion in January, many in Africa thought it would be just the latest in a long line of desert uprisings to be swiftly placated with offers of cash and jobs.
Some optimists mused that the indigo-turbaned northerners might even take on the local arm of al Qaeda, which was plying a disruptive trade in Western hostages and trafficked goods.
But instead, the Tuaregs' struggle for an independent homeland has been hijacked by better-armed Islamists from Mali and abroad, creating a safe haven for militants in the Sahara that is already being compared to similar bastions elsewhere.
"We are in an early stage of Afghanistan and Somalia. There is no doubt in my mind," said Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, a Mauritanian diplomat who has been a United Nations envoy in both west Africa and Somalia.
The Mali government doesn't want to lose their territory. ECOWAS, the regional body, doesn't want jihadis in the region. The African Union doesn't want to allow the precedent of secession to survive. The West doesn't want jihadis to gain a sanctuary. So all eyes are on Mali:
Other nations in the region, especially Algeria (which shares a 460 kilometer border with Mali) are alarmed at the appearance of a potential Islamic state, and sanctuary for Islamic terrorists. The situation is murky because several Ansar Dine and MNLA factions are operating semi-independently. There is no single, reliable voice in the north. If there is a civil war between Islamic conservatives and secular minded Tuaregs, there will be chaos for a while. Meanwhile the AU (African Union) and ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) is preparing to invade northern Mali and has already imposed economic sanctions on land-locked Mali. AFRICOM (U.S. Africa Command) has troops, aircraft and Special Forces operators in the area.
The only question is who can do anything about this problem. France is the only country that can do something about this with any assurance of victory. But they have a new socialist president and may not be eager to do the job without clear international approval. I wonder how eager Russia and China will be to help out on that question?
Well, technically we could do something; but I find it hard to believe we'd do more than send supplies, advice, special forces, and drones.
If the Tuaregs were smart, they'd turn on the jihadis and leave only Mali's government, ECOWAS, and the AU--all incapable of doing anything any time soon--with an incentive to intervene. Ansar Dine is a big target on the new Tuareg state and they Tuareg's are fools to leave it there.
