Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Vinson, Stennis, and Lincoln

The carriers Vinson, Stennis, and Lincoln could all be in the Arabian Sea at the same time:

Military officials said the USS Carl Vinson arrived in the Arabian Sea on Monday to replace the outgoing USS John C. Stennis carrier strike group, which Iran last week warned not to return to the Gulf after departing in late December.

The Stennis was due to return to its home port in San Diego but the Pentagon did not say when that would happen.

Another carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, concluded a port visit to Thailand on Tuesday and was now in the Indian Ocean. It is on track to join the Vinson in the Central Command area of operations, which begins in the neighboring Arabian Sea.

US officials say it is nothing and that two carriers have overlapped a couple times in the last 18 months.

Even if nothing is going on, it helps to act like something is--but deny everything--to get the Iranians used to multiple carriers near them and dull their reactions.

One day it could be something if, for example, Stennis heads for home with fanfare but reverses course for a quiet high speed dash back to Central Command. Joining up with two other carriers would be a bid deal and would represent more than a quarter of our carrier strength. You can't hide something like that for long, mind you. So if we did we'd have to use them pretty fast if surprise is part of the plan.

I tell you, I'd feel better about leaving Iraq (not good about it--just better) if Iran's mullah regime was pushing up daisies.

Iraqis might not be too conflicted over their safety to invite us back in if that was the case.

Heck, lots of problems would be better with the mullah regime destroyed.

You never know. And as long as the Iranians never know for sure, too, that could yet pay off.

UPDATE: This press conference includes a discussion of the carrier presence. Apparently, we recently decided that we want two carriers in the CENTCOM region, so having three for a while isn't unusual--as convenient as that might be one day.

We deny "zorching" a carrier over there (I had to look that up. Disregarding the unlikely definitions and going by context, it is "To travel with velocity approaching lightspeed. To propel something very quickly."). Heck, with two carriers on station, I suppose we might even get 4 carriers in the region if we replace two on-station carriers in a short period of time while the first relieved carrier shows the flag slowly "on the way home" prior to reversing course zorch back to the Arabian Sea.

UPDATE: And Daring, too, one of Britain's new Type 45 air defense ships (which the commander calls "staggeringly capable"), will be in the area.

It could all be psychological pressure. Or connecting dots that don't exist. But it could mean something. Or Iran could wrongly think it means something, and make decisions that to us will look pretty foolish.