Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is scheduled to roll out more than $260 billion in defense budget cuts later this week in what sources familiar with the Pentagon's strategy review say will show the U.S. will no longer be able to fight two ground wars simultaneously.
I wish we had a two-war military right now. Unless you are talking about one war that is ground-air dominated and the other is naval-air dominated, we just have a one-war military. And it was pretty stressed out by winning Iraq, if you'll recall. So no, we aren't losing a two ground war military.
The last time we had a 2-war military was World War II and that required full mobilization. But we fought and beat 2-1/2 enemies (Germany, Japan, and Italy). Funny enough, even that was one mainly air-naval with an assist by ground components, a second that was mostly ground-air with an assist from the naval side, and a third half-war in the Mediterranean with a bit of everything.
In the Cold War, by the mid-1950s, we continued the 2-1/2 war strategy with the USSR, China, and North Korea/Vietnam as the foes. Downgraded to 1-1/2 wars (USSR and North Korea), and then to 1+ (USSR or North Korea and a small armed contingency somewhere else).
When the Cold War ended we went to a 2-war strategy with a smaller military. How? Well, the 2 wars envisioned were North Korea and Iraq or Iran--each of which would have been the "half war" during the Cold War. We called them Major Theater Wars. Or later, Major Regional Contingencies. And we added a modifier that everyone leaves out when discussing our ability to fight and win 2 wars/contingencies.
We said we could win those 2 (half) wars "nearly simultaneously" or later, "in overlapping time frames."
That is, if countries A and B were attacked, we could hold off the enemy in country A while we deployed decisive force to country B to win the war. Once country B was secured, we'd shift forces to achieve victory in Country A. Voila! Victory in 2 wars "nearly simultaneously."
So the reductions we are planning are far worse than losing the ability to win a second war. No we are losing the ability to win a single war if this trend continues.
We're darned close to just saying we don't see any foes we'd fight for the next decade so why not take a defense holiday?
