Monday, October 17, 2011

Just a New Year's Resolution?

Iraqis seem to be vowing to go cold turkey on an American military presence next year:

Both countries are still discussing whether to keep some trainers in Iraq, although the number of troops is most likely to be far less than the 3,000 to 5,000 that the administration had discussed with Iraqi leaders, one of the American officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the continuing negotiations.

The officials said the administration’s plans changed in recent weeks as it became clear that the Iraqi Parliament would not give legal immunity to the American troops, something the Pentagon had insisted would be needed if troops were to continue to operate here.

We could continue discussions so that the end of our presence isn't permanent and we return to Iraq. But until that happens, we'll have to rely on the State Department and private military contractors.

We'll need to rely on prepositioned equipment to be able to rapidly reinforce Iraq (and Kuwait, for that matter). We have Army brigade sets in Kuwait, the UAE, and afloat in the Indian Ocean, and a Marine set near there as well. Plus we have a parachute brigade in Italy and Germany that could be flown in rapidly. Hopefully, we put a couple brigade sets inside Iraq guarded and maintained by private contractors. Backed by air and naval forces in the region, this will have to do. It isn't ideal. But we can only help the Iraqis as much as they agree to our help. Perhaps the pro-Iranian factions can be marginalized yet to gain that permission.