Whether or not George W. Bush had anything to do with this era, he had a lot to say about what should arise in this revolutionary age--real democracy. Islamists want the end of the autocracies to install their own form of religious-based dictatorships (and ideally, one grand one to rule all Moslems). Bush wanted democracy to replace the autocracies. Despite initial steps in the Obama administration to reject democracy promotion as tainted by Bush, and establish foreign policy realism where we cut deals with whatever autocrats promise to provide stability, the atmosphere in the Arab world may not allow us to make the choice.
You'd think the Obama administration would argue that it is uniquely qualified (outreach, middle name, not Bush) to promote democracy as the result of this revolutionary fervor (whether or not it is true). As I wrote this last summer, we don't necessarily have the luxury of choosing whether there is revolution. Our choice may just be to try to exert our influence to make sure that democracy and not Islamism is the alternative to the current autocracies. Helping Iraq defend its own fledgling democracy would be a good start to show all Arabs that we stand with true reformers in the Arab world even when evil forces try to undermine progress toward democracy.
Then again, the Obama administration bet that Iran could withstand the 2009 Green movement. In the short run, Arab autocrats will likely withstand this latest wave. But who knows what will happen, even if it has no practical effect on the next 2-6 years of the Obama presidency? Even just some success now in overturning another dictator could give hope to other Arabs who endure their regimes, and play out years or decades in the future.
But if the autocrats win in the end in the short run, remember that even though the Obama administration won its bet that Iran's rulers would endure, the second part of that bet was that we could come to an agreement with those rulers over Iran's nuclear program. That hasn't worked out, has it?
Still, it does amuse me that when historical eras are defined by decades or centuries, so many on the left are so quick to deny that there is any linkage between the cries for democracy in the Arab world and the Bush administration that promoted a freedom agenda because two whole years have passed since he was in office. We may not be in an Age of Revolution in the Arab world. But I'm not willing to say whether it is or not yet.
UPDATE: Well, Egypt has enough unrest to look like a revolution in progress:
Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters poured into the streets of Egypt Friday, stoning and confronting police who fired back with rubber bullets and tear gas in the most violent and chaotic scenes yet in the challenge to President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule. Even a Nobel Peace laureate was soaked by water cannon and forced to take refuge in a mosque.
Internet and cell phone services have been cut as well, although the extent is unclear.
But the security forces are battling the protesters, and not folding. We shall see if the government's leaders and troops stay loyal in enough numbers to hold the line.
If Egypt, the leading state in the Arab world succumbs to this unrest, I think we can officially say a trend is beginning.
UPDATE: Some police have switched sides:
An Associated Press reporter saw the protesters cheering the police who joined them and hoisting them on their shoulders in one of the many dramatic and chaotic scenes across Egypt on Friday.
How many? Enough to make a difference? Remember that in the spring 2004 dual Sunni Arab-Sadrist uprising in Iraq, perhaps half of the new Iraqi government's security forces collapsed in the shock of the event. Yet the remaining half and foreign security forces (mostly ours) were enough to absorb the blow and go on to win.
Egyptian military forces also deployed, according to the article. If security forces remain loyal, the sound and fury of the events will mean nothing in the end. If the security forces break? Well, we'd best be pro-active to help the democracy component of the protesters so the Islamist portion doesn't emerge on top.
UPDATE: Voice of America lists key actors:
President Hosni Mubarak: The president-for-life.
Mohamed El Baradei: Nobel Peace Prize winner, diplomat, former head of IAEA, and vocal critic of Mr. Mubarak and his government.
Minister Omar Suleiman: The head of Egyptian intelligence and a close ally of President Mubarak considered a possible successor to Mubarak.
Ayman Nour: Political dissident who founded the Al Ghad or “tomorrow” party, ran in the 2005 election, and was later jailed on corruption charges.
Muslim Brotherhood: The aforementioned Islamists.
These are at least interesting times.
UPDATE: Remembering that President Bush offered the revolutionary idea that Arabs wanted and deserved freedom. Yet he's condemned by the left for that. I think they hated Bush all the more for that because it highlighted the so-called "progressive" left's failure to believe Arabs had the human desire to live free.
