Already, it seems like Iran and their local proxies are scaling back their violence:
U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker has held three rounds of talks this year with his Iranian counterpart on security in Iraq, ending a diplomatic freeze that had lasted almost 30 years but with little to show for the often frank dialogue.
Crocker said on Saturday he expected a further round of meetings in the next few weeks. The talks would focus on Iraqi security and again would not touch on Tehran's nuclear plans.
Crocker signaled a possible change in tack in U.S. dealings with Iran when he noted on October 25 that there had been several positive developments in Iran's involvement in Iraq.
While saying Iran's involvement was still a "mixed, cloudy picture," Crocker noted the ceasefire ordered by Moqtada al- Sadr, the head of the feared Shi'ite Mehdi Army militia, in August and the sharp drop in mortar attacks on Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone.
In light of these US-Iran developments, this Iraq-Iran line of talk is interesting (tip to the Corner):
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Mohammad-Reza Baqeri said on Tuesday that officials of Iraq's Foreign Ministry are expected to visit Iran soon to discuss ways of executing the agreement.
The 1975 Algiers Agreement is a treaty signed by the previous regime of Iran and Iraq on March 6, 1975. The agreement settled disputes concerning many areas between the countries.
The Algiers Agreement, among other things, established the boundary of the Shatt-al-Arab river that marks the southern border between iran and Iraq based on the thalweg principle rather than lying on the east bank of the river. (Note that the Wikipedia article misstates thalweg as the midpoint of the river.)
Controlling this river was vital to Iraqi trade given their short coastline on the Gulf. Accepting the thalweg principle meant that the boundary was drawn down the middle of the deepest navigable channel of the river, abandoning complete control.
The agreement was achieved because Iran under the Shah backed the Kurdish revolt in the early 1970s and then abandoned the Kurds when they got post-Saddam Iraq's agreement to Iran's position on the river border.
In 1980, Iraq invaded Iran citing this unfair agreement as one reason for going to war.
So today, with Iran still supporting Shia thugs in Iraq but at a lower level, is Iran going to Plan B by giving up on hopes of seizing control of Iraq?
Will the implementation of border controls under the Algiers Agreement to keep subversives from infiltrating across the border (that is, in practice from Iran into Iraq) be the price Iraq demands for accepting this Saddam-era treaty rather than renouncing it as a pre-democracy relic?
Is Tehran abandoning the Shia thugs in order to get the traditional Iranian definition of the river border again accepted by Iraq? If Iran gives up, only the far less threatening Syrian support of subversive elements within Iraq will remain to stir the pot.
UPDATE: Is a general deal being made that concludes Iran's war on us in Iraq?
Nine Iranians being held in Iraq would be released soon, the U.S. military said on Tuesday, just days after U.S. officials signaled a possible change in approach by noting positive Iranian developments in Iraq.
Personally, I think that the two missing US soldiers snatched some months ago were hauled off to Iran. If so, I'd expect to see them turn up although probably not directly from Iranian officials.
