Saudi Arabia's High Wire Juggling Act

Is Saudi Arabia's alliance with Turkey and Pakistan just keeping rivals inside the tent pissing out?

I've noted that Saudi Arabia is in a precarious position:

Arab states in the Middle East can't be sleeping as well at night as they look around and see rival Moslem powers ringing the Middle East vying for the loyalties of Arab Moslems.

Rival non-Arab powers like Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan ring the Arab Gulf region. And Israel, of course.

Not to mention internal threats from a Shia minority and Sunni Islamists who want the Saudi government to be more overtly and aggressively Islamist.

Saudi Arabia is wealthy but militarily weak. It has "target" written all over it. Lots of high-tech weapons. But without hired contractors could the planes fly or fight? Yes, Egypt is potentially a sword to help the Saudis. But Egypt is broke and needs lots of subsidies to have an impact on the balance.

Which makes me wonder a couple things. Is Saudi Arabia's alliance this year with Pakistan (already an ally) and Turkey an effort to get rivals outside the Saudi tent to come inside to isolate Iran rather than risk an alignment of non-Arab states against Saudi Arabia?

And is this alliance a means to stiff-arm Saudi normalization of relations with Israel or a means to enable restored relations and joining the Abraham Accords by highlighting a Moslem counter-weight?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from here.

Reality Shocks the Air Force

How is it possible for the Air Force to be "concerned" about Reaper losses over Iran when that surely is the expected outcome?

The Air Force wants to replace the Reaper drone:

Following steep losses of the General Atomics MQ-9A Reaper in recent combat operations against Iran, Air Force officials are accelerating efforts to replace the venerable drone with a new unmanned aircraft at a price of $10 million each.

Seriously, the losses are from the "Well Duh" files.

The drones excelled in operations against insurgents who lacked air defenses. It cannot be a surprise that air defense can shoot down Reapers. 

Further, drones are sent into areas we don't want to risk pilots. No doubt losses would be lower if we planned missions the same as crewed aircraft.

Finally, the answer isn't another expensive drone. Aim for semi-disposable, eh?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Use All of the Kill Chain to Defend Against Enemy Attacks

Shooting down a missile when it is getting close is great. But you need to knock out their targeting assets, too. You need point defense. You need the means to hit the incoming missile earlier in the flight path. You need to hit it just after launch and better yet before it launches. And by all means, putting your troops on their launch sites is the ultimate missile defense.

Preaching to the TDR choir, he is:

You cannot defend your way out of an asymmetric attrition fight. When an adversary possesses access to cheap, mass-produced offensive weaponry and is driven by an unyielding ideological commitment to disrupt regional stability, playing passive defense is a recipe for strategic exhaustion.

Yet across the waters surrounding the Arabian Peninsula, American and allied strategy remains trapped in precisely this reactive posture. While Western attention drifts between competing geopolitical flashpoints, the security environment in the southern Red Sea is deteriorating toward an acute strategic crisis. Along the coastal lowlands and rugged mountain terrain of western Yemen, Houthi forces are consolidating ground and maneuvering heavy assets toward the strategic port city of Mokha. Their operational objective is unmistakable: to establish a fortified anti-access and area-denial bubble capable of physically closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

We can't just be ducks for the enemy's target practice. We must extend ship defense against arrows to wherever the archer is standing to the very beginning of the enemy kill chain to our targeted ships. This applies to cheap anti-ship drones as much as it does to ballistic missiles (which are cheap compared to the systems needed to defeat them).

And sometimes you have to stand on the ground the enemy archers need. Especially when they occupy islands and ports that make them easier targets to reach and destroy.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the BBC.

Ticket-Punching in the Russian Military

On paper, Russian commanders have combat experience. The reality almost certainly doesn't match the paper trail.

Part of Russia's poor combat performance may stem from "short command tours [which] reminds me of some of the problems we had in Vietnam that we repeated in GWOT."

Could be. I commented on that aspect of their vaunted Syrian intervention when large numbers of officers rotated through Syria:

My question is whether the Russian officers who briefly served in Syria learned to lead a fight or just punched tickets in a simulation of learning.

I'm guessing my question was valid given practice during the current much more serious war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Oddly, when I told it to edit the picture to show the officers lined up one behind the other, I was refused with the system saying it detected unsafe image. Why?? Bing is great but it makes it difficult for defense authors to generate illustrations.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Wildly Divergent Potential Timelines

 

Is Russia going super big on a Plan 2027 to create an even larger bulldozer to plow their way to victory? I think that plan would have worked in February 2022. I don’t know if Russia’s arsenal, soldiers, or people can stand that kind of effort now given their casualties and equipment losses over the last 4-1/2 years. And just what is Ukraine up to? I mean other than their aerial drone barrage on Russia. Or is that just my hopes getting way ahead of actual capabilities?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Dysfunction of America’s Defense Industry

In case you missed it on Substack: Calculating a PLA Defeat on Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: Waiting For Egypt?

In case you missed it on Substack: Killing the Rain is Hard

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Japan Seeks Expensive Security Solutions

Japan is demonstrating that its pacifistic constitution is not a suicide pact.

Japan is arming up: 

Japan’s Ministry of Defense has requested a record 8.9 trillion yen – or $55.6 billion – for its Fiscal Year 2027 Defense Budget to prioritize artificial intelligence, unmanned capabilities and long-range strike capabilities, according to budgetary documents released Monday.  

I'm not sure what that illustration depicts, but the red ships and subs are clearly losing. I bet it is blinding China.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

Taiwan's "Hedgehog" Defense?

I am happy the Taiwanese are buying some cheap weapons to fight China's expensive invasion weapons. And even happier that these will complement rather than replace conventional weapons.

Has Taiwan finally adopted a hedgehog defense?

Belated parliamentary funding for Taiwan’s drone program isn’t likely to satisfy President Lai Ching-te. Nonetheless, pressure from Washington has evidently helped achieve spending authorisation for this key part of the government’s effort to adopt a hedgehog defence strategy.

Great, a new term. Forget "porcupine". Forget "Hezbollah". 

And forget the concept. I really believe people who use this are simply twisting the concepts of combined arms and joint warfare to create a class of cheap silver bullet wonder weapons. 

Given that this drone program is just a portion of Taiwan's defenses--which include tanks to drive the enemy into the sea and warships to fight blockades--Taiwan is simple expanding their total arsenal and not relying on the latest silver bullet wonder weapon to attract our attention and raise our hopes for easy defense means.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Is it a Bridge or a Wall?

A new road bridge linking North Korea and Russia over the Tumen River is nearly completed. China was unavailable for comment.

Well, it's nearly completed:

The first-ever road bridge linking North Korea and Russia across the Tumen River appears close to completion, according to satellite imagery reviewed by Defense News, though construction on the Russian side lags behind Pyongyang’s finished part. It is a visible manifestation of the two countries’ tightening relationships, driven by Pyongyang’s military support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. 

And even if the bridge is never fully completed, it may be a wall right now, blocking Chinese access down the Tumen River to the Sea of Japan, as China wanted. Unless the road bridge has very high water clearance or is a draw bridge. And one picture I saw sure doesn't indicate that.

A new era in military cooperation begins! Against Ukraine. For now. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

No Doubt it Sucks to Be Russia

A three-day capture of Kyiv followed by a few weeks of mopping up the rest of Ukraine would have made European aid to Ukraine irrelevant. In a long war, it matters.

Russia’s ability to pound Ukraine into submission has a flaw: 

Russia faces a fundamental asymmetry as it seeks to beat Ukraine into submission with intensifying airstrikes on shopping malls, power stations, ports and other infrastructure. Kyiv can rely on a secure hinterland beyond its borders—its European neighbors—for economic resilience and for military logistics. ...

This lopsided geopolitical setup offsets, to a significant degree, Russia’s advantage in firepower. 

Early in the war, I highlighted the economic and military support the West provided Ukraine despite Russia's 9:1 GDP edge:

Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services. 

As for Russian whining about Western logistics sanctuaries? Nobody is bombing Belarus, North Korea, or China. Sure, Iran is being bombed but that's not mainly related to Russia's war effort. And let's talk about how the North Koreans and North Vietnamese were armed when we fought them, okay? 

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Blackhawk Company Learned Without Bleeding

An American company commander widely reported as getting his clock cleaned by Ukrainian drone operators in an exercise gives his perspective.

This exercise was not intended to replicate our coming countermeasures, it was a lesson about what happens without them:

We did not have counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (cUAS) capability that we would have wanted. Our brigade was not a Transformation-in-Contact (TiC) unit that places new, sometimes untested weapons and tech directly in the hands of soldiers.

Perhaps the Army and industry partners have already developed a secret “win button” device for drone warfare. But if they did, we didn’t have it.

But fighting a tilted, uphill battle against seasoned combat veterans is exactly what made the experience so valuable. We did not complain; we adapted, accepting that the sky — in perpetuity, not just sporadically — was now part of the battlefield.

The company learned how to operate without active countermeasures to cope with the threat. Skills that will be necessary even when the company can fight back.

Note too that the enemy needed ground troops to find and target them after the company exploited terrain as cover from aerial recon. And when on offense during the exercise with Ukrainian drone help from the Nemesis unit, the exercise exposed a weakness of drones:

When we maneuvered and made the hunters of Nemesis feel like the hunted, the skies cleared up. 

Yes, secure positions behind static lines amplify drone effectiveness. 

I commented on the panty-flinging by drone enthusiasts for a different exercise with similar results. 

I also heard that the American exercise was supposed to help train Ukrainian drone operators. Which would help Ukraine fight more effectively if Russia resumes mechanized warfare.

Learning in realistic exercises is better than learning in deadly combat. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Goes Big or Goes Home?

 

Will Russia finally grind down Ukraine’s civilian morale from the air and pound their way through Ukraine’s ground forces with a bigger sledgehammer after mobilizing reservists and throwing in accumulated equipment? Or will Russia face its own 1944 Battle of the Bulge offensive failure that expends its last reserves? Or a 1943 Kursk offensive failure that leaves Russia without significant reserves to counter-attack? Or even a Karbala V bloody failure that collapses Russian troop morale for holding occupied territory?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Bradley Plus UGV Drone Swarms

In case you missed it on Substack: Only Putin Can Go to Washington, D.C.

In case you missed it on Substack: The Navy Must Evolve for Sea Control

In case you missed it on Substack: The War on Islamist Terror at 25

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

NATO Cooperation in the Arctic

Does NATO do enough in the Arctic region to contain Russia and its Chinese partner?

Is this sufficient to increase NATO capabilities in the Arctic?

On the military side of NATO, the establishment in 2019 of NATO Joint Force Command Norfolk (JFC NF) is important because it brings most of NATO’s Arctic activity under one command. The command is also staffed with many officers from the Arctic states, thus serving as an integration hub for the states in question, as well as other allies who operate in the Arctic, such as the UK and the Netherlands. JFC NF is also responsible for NATO’s Regional Plan Northwest, which covers the north Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic and the Nordic region. Allied operations and exercises in the High North are therefore often related to this plan in one way or the other.

To me, that's close but no cigar. Yes, the Arctic is included in JFC NF. But it is not exclusively focused on mastering that region and its unique challenges. Is America's Nordic Bridge initiative carved out of NORTHCOM and bringing other entities in to better coordinate Arctic missions enough?

I'd like to see the Joint Expeditionary Command (JEF) shed members on the eastern front, add Canada, and be the element that focuses its NATO members on Arctic operations.

And if America sets up POLARCOM, America could better contribute to and coordinate with NATO's JEF members in the Arctic to face China-supported Russia.

Then, JFC NF could narrow its scope to the North Atlantic and sub-Arctic Nordic region.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from NOAA.

Twenty-five Years After Realizing We Were at War With Jihadis

It has been 25 years since jihadis forced Americans to realize jihadis were waging war on us.

 

I address the day we could no longer deny we were at war and the quarter century since then here:

So yes, the war goes on. Some complain it is an “endless war.” As if it is our fault our jihadi enemies are persistent in their belief they must kill us and our civilization. If the war is endless it is not our fault. Which is all the more reason we must fight the war by killing our enemies and rewarding the elements of Islam that would rather reform Islam, and win the very long war[.]

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo by Julien Maculan on Unsplash  

Will Canada Defend its North?

While Canada has fixated on demonizing America over trade issues, Russia looms over Canada's ill-defended Arctic border.

Sure, Lake Ontario America was humorous. But the Canadians have lost their minds. This is not a good time to joke around. We need to speak softly and refrain from making sudden moves. But this is an excellent point about Canada facing an actual threat:

In Canada, with the second-longest Arctic coastline, the “Our North, Strong and Free” declaration has to be underpinned by effective policy. 

I've long wanted Canada to bolster its Arctic defenses:

Canada has my enduring thanks for fighting and dying at our side in Afghanistan. It was a rare NATO ally who did that even under Article V. So if Canada revives defense spending primarily to safeguard the northern Pacific and Atlantic as well as the Arctic? Great!  

It seems that Canada is theoretically in agreement, We could complement that effort by establishing POLARCOM. 

Maybe we could motivate the Canadians by sailing an Amphibious Readiness Group around Hudson America Bay.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from here.

Who Controls the Hormuz Strait?

Iran loudly claims to control the Hormuz Strait. Our media largely parrots that claim. In fact, Iran has no control and limited ability to interdict traffic. America has some control and the ability to interdict traffic.

I've been saying for quite some time in Weekend Data Dumps that official statistics of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz don't reflect the reality of American forces shepherding ships through Omani territorial waters with their beacons turned off ("dark transits"), making them invisible to those who count. And to the Iranians who want to shoot at them, of course.

Well:

An average of 8.6 million barrels of oil a day have been flowing through the Strait of Hormuz — more than previously reported, maritime analyst firm Kpler confirmed in a new update that matches estimates from the Trump administration.

Even I was unwilling to say it was that much. Just that some was getting out. And combined with increased pipeline and truck transport plus reduced demand, enough was getting out to get by. 

At some point when oil is delivered the statistics can be modified to show that a tanker had to transit the strait X days earlier.

Mind you, the pre-war  level was 21.6 million barrels per day. But in a couple years, pipelines might allow all the Arab states to fully bypass Hormuz.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Great White North and a Let's Do It Foreign Policy

I hope that Canada and the United States sort out our trade differences before they seriously affect our defense relationship. We need each other militarily and economically, but leaders can do stupid things. Lord knows I've seen how Canadians since 2016 have whipped themselves into anti-U.S. hysteria. 

This sums it up:

In broad terms, Canada’s relationship with the U.S. has two dimensions: economic and military. The U.S. is attempting to adjust the former but not the latter. The Trump administration is increasing economic pressure on Canada through tariffs, as it has with the rest of the world, which has naturally introduced tension into the relationship. At this point, the tension is reaching a point that it may affect the military dimension as well.

America has real trade grievances with Canada over how Canada tariffs American exports and allows other nations to bypass our tariffs. But the military dimensions of our relationship should keep the trade disputes from getting out of hand. 

We assume Canada knows we need each other so we can push hard. But I don't assume Canada will not do something really futile and stupid just to spite America--and damn the cost to Canada (which will be blamed on America, of course). I mean, by doing something more harmful than stoking Canadian anger at America to suppress secessionist movements in Quebec and Alberta.

Let's remember we are friends and allies, shall we?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Misses a Chance

 

It is false compassion to reduce the rate of your losses by refusing to energetically conduct a counteroffensive and suffer a higher casualty rate if you forfeit a chance to end a war quickly only to condemn your troops and civilians to a lower rate of casualties for years on end. Did Ukraine miss its chance to exploit Russian weakness in the first half of 2026?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: American Western Hemisphere Foreign Policy

In case you missed it on Substack: "Blood and Guts" Putin Seeks Glory

In case you missed it on Substack: Make the Gulf Arabian Again

In case you missed it on Substack: Competing Distractions in the Great PACOM Game

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.