Be Very Afraid

My daughter really wants to go out shopping on Black Friday. I'd rather hunker down with canned goods and not venture out to shove my hand into the whirling blades that today represents.

I told Lamb that's something she should share with her mother.

Hoping To Be the Last Core Interest Secured?

I'm sure that Taiwan will reap tons of gratitude from mainland China for throwing Tibet under the bus:

Taiwan has barred the Dalai Lama from visiting the island next month. ...

A spokeswoman for Ms Lu said the ban reflected a fear of angering China.

Yeah, wouldn't want to anger China. They might think they should attack the place.

They already consider Taiwan their property:

China has enraged several neighbors with a few dashes on a map, printed in its newly revised passports, that show it staking its claim on the entire South China Sea and even Taiwan.

Inside the new passports, an outline of China printed in the upper left corner includes Taiwan and the sea, hemmed in by the dashes. The change highlights China's longstanding claim on the South China Sea in its entirety, though parts of the waters also are claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia.

China's official maps have long included Taiwan and the South China Sea as Chinese territory, but the act of including those in its passports could be seen as a provocation since it would require other nations to tacitly endorse those claims by affixing their official seals to the documents.

But I'm being unkind. I'm sure there are really big-brained explanations available that explain why throwing Tibet under the bus and Taiwan's general policy of coddling Peking is way different from just pretending that China doesn't want to take over Taiwan, isn't building a military capable of seizing the island, and isn't going to include Taiwan in their increasingly aggressive talk about territory around China's periphery that they must have.

Taiwan might even be the last core interest that China settles in their favor! Reset!

UPDATE: Perhaps Taiwan realizes they are setting a bad precedent:

The government welcomes religious figures from all over the world to Taiwan, the Presidential Office said yesterday, adding that the Dalai Lama case will be further assessed by the executive branches of the administration.

Yes, further assessment would be good.

Cashing His Check

President Mursi of Egypt cashed his check for brokering a Gaza ceasefire:

Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi's decree that put his decisions above legal challenge until a new parliament was elected caused fury amongst his opponents on Friday who accused him of being the new Hosni Mubarak and hijacking the revolution.

Toppling Mubarak did not bring democracy and rule of law. However necessary, the fight for the end of autocracy only began with Mubarak's departure.

Will Egyptians who want something better than continued mis-rule for the benefit of the elites carry on the fight?

Is our new Cairo outreach a blank check to Mursi in exchange for "stability" there no matter the price Egyptians pay?

Blow Back

Mexico's new president, Pena Nieto, will have problems dealing with increasingly powerful drug cartels and law enforcement corruption made worse by general corruption in Mexico and the increased flow of drugs through Mexico to the United States.

Stratfor explains constraints on fighting this set of problems.

Things have come a long way from the time when Mexican officials figured the drug trafficking was an American problem and asked why they should fight our problem when Mexico just reaped the benefit of dollars flowing south to pay for the drugs.

Deals with the Devil rarely work out well, in the end.

UPDATE: How well did ignoring the enforcement of laws that let drugs flow north to America? About this well:

The Mexico's National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) reported today that 99 percent of crimes go unpunished in this country, which shows a very low police efficiency against high rates of violence.

Mexico should be the first country to want America to have effective border controls.

Now the Government Arrives

With people still needing food and shelter, New York City has decided the victims of Hurrican Sandy really need enforcement of health and safety rules in relief centers. Tip to Instapundit.

And you thought I was just kidding?

Giving Thanks

Ah, the traditional time for giving thanks is upon us. Truly, I do give thanks.

I'm thankful for parents who love me, gave me a secure life growing up, and pointed me toward adulthood. My childhood was so normal that I almost resent them for not giving me a convenient excuse to blame for any problems as an adult. They sent me off to the University of Michigan despite the costs. And that worked out well, in the end.

I'm thankful for 2 brothers and a sister who, though they tormented me at the usual rates when I was little, turned out to be good people as adults.

I'm thankful that my parents sent me to private school rather than the Detroit Public School system.

I'm thankful for a junior high teacher who told my parents I should go to the University of Michigan. I never contemplated going anywhere else.

I'm thankful for a police officer who looked the wrong way at the right time and another who decided I was sober enough and responsible enough to get out of Dodge with friends who were neither.

I'm thankful for realizing in college--after the University of Michigan not too subtly informed me of my errors--that I should not be a math and computer science major. Though I had no idea what I'd do with a political science degree, I'm glad I chose that path.

I'm thankful I spent three years as a sophomore.

I'm thankful that I almost accidentally double-majored in college, adding a history major to my degree.

I'm thankful my parents raised me with enough common sense not to borrow heavily to get my degree.

I'm thankful a friend in college prodded me to keep going forward when I could have just stopped. I fully intended to keep going forward, but at a point in my life when it would have been easy to coast, he made sure I did not with a simple gesture. I may not have needed that prod, but I'm thankful I didn't need to find out. I never needed another prod in life to do what I needed to do.

I'm thankful I didn't make it into graduate school in political science at the University of Michigan and that Eastern Michigan University had a history program but not a political science program.

I'm thankful I ran into my future wife and mother of my children when at a party at a girlfriend's apartment.

I'm thankful that I spent so much time playing video games at the local arcade. I got very good at Asteroids and got to know the manager a bit. Years later I eventually got a job there and worked many years; and I saw that future wife and mother there frequently, and we began dating.

I'm thankful that I joined a fraternity that attracted a lot of good guys who I still see today, and which let me slide on money I owed them during a school year until I could pay off my debt in the summer.

I'm thankful that I got a job dusting and vacuuming books in the Asia Library at the University of Michigan. Really.

I'm thankful I joined the military despite my relatively advanced age yet did not have to go off to war. I would have done so--and thought that would happen for a couple months--but I never had to leave my new wife and worry my mom who thought she'd already sent off the last son to war. Yet I know I did my duty as a citizen of a country I love and which needs to be defended. As a bonus, it added credibility to my first efforts at writing about defense issues.

I'm thankful that an instructor at a nearby community college choked on a piece of meat just before fall term started, rendering him unable to speak and giving me the opportunity to be able to add something related to my degrees to my resume.

I'm thankful for taking a mental health day off at work so I was home to receive a phone call from my future boss in Lansing where I spent the bulk of my adult career in a job I liked, with colleagues I respected and liked, was challenging, and allowed me (I think) to make a difference.

I'm thankful for two wonderful children, who give me joy every day. Despite tormenting me at the usual rates, I never forget they are good kids and that I will one day sorely miss taking care of them.

I'm thankful I raced to get something published before my first child was born. I worried I'd come to resent being a father if I did not at least prove I could do that while I still had spare time.

I'm thankful that just about every job I held--by sheer luck--except that arcade thing, contributed to my retirement plan.

I'm thankful that I pursued divorce rather than just coasting along and enduring.

I'm thankful for a comfortable and healthy life in a nice community--even if nearly every bumper sticker I see makes me roll my eyes.

I'm thankful for living in a country that gave me opportunities to go from Detroit to Ann Arbor in my life. On a map the distance is pretty small. In all other ways, they are worlds apart.

I'm thankful that every problem I have faced, no matter how bad it seemed at the time, was either something that could be fixed, coped with, or actually turned out to be a good thing in the long run when I look back at the chain of events that followed. And there was always beer in moderate amounts to fill in the difficult gaps.

I'm grateful to have a moderately successful (for my goals, anyway) blog that keeps me writing on subjects I enjoy.

I'm thankful that I've never been tormented by regrets over what I might have done or could have done. The threads of my life, good and bad, are so intertwined that I could never say that changing one bad thing to a good thing wouldn't have changed my life from a good path to a bad path.

I have much to be thankful for this day. I've been lucky in events and choices. So I give thanks. And I assume I will have many more things to add to this list before I check out of this life.

I hope you have much to be thankful for, too, this day. Happy Thanksgiving.

Bits Continue to Fall Off

Syrian forces have been running harder and harder to stay in place against the growing rebellion, and that's starting to not work anymore.

Assad lost another piece of territory:

Syrian rebels seized a key military base with artillery stockpiles in the country's east Thursday, strengthening their hold in an oil-rich strategic province bordering Iraq, activists said.

The rebels have been making advances in the Deir el-Zour province recently, and the capture of the base followed the seizure of a military airport in the same area last week.

Activist groups and a local fighter told The Associated Press the Mayadeen base fell in the morning hours, after a three-week siege.

As Assad's too-small forces flail away in the west, the east is slipping away.

How soon before these troops are needed?

Czech troops are in Jordan, providing technical expertise in case Syria's massive stockpile of chemical weapons is somehow unleashed by the Assad regime, rebels, or terrorists.

The Czechs have a leading role in NATO in this area. (Tip to Instapundit)

Recall also we had a special forces convention in Jordan not too long ago.

The end of the beginning, I'd say.

Freedom of Choice

Israel ended the fight with Hamas without resorting to ground forces. Whether that was a wise choice or a mistake is not clear to me, but it is clear that Iron Dome bought Israel the freedom to end the conflict without using ground troops. That luxury likely won't last into the next rocket war.

Secretary of Defense Panetta released a statement reading, in part:

Minister Barak thanked Secretary Panetta and the Obama Administration for U.S. support of the Iron Dome counter-rocket system. The system intercepted over 85 percent of rockets fired at Israeli civilians and provided decision space for Israel to achieve its strategic goals without forcing further military actions.

Since Israel fended off the strikes against their civilians, they did not feel compelled to do something greater than air and naval bombardment to keep civilians from being killed and wounded.

I would like to caution that this does not mean ground forces couldn't have been helpful. I do not think a conflict against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon could be restricted to air power because Iron Dome exists.

Hamas learned to volley fire their rockets to overwhelm the thin screen that Iron Dome is. Hezbollah, with far more rockets to launch, would be in a better position to successfully overwhelm Iron Dome with larger volleys.

That's where ground forces come in. Without ground threats, Hezbollah will be more able to set up rockets for that volley. With ground troops advancing, Hezbollah will feel the need to use rockets or lose them (or their launch sites) before Israeli ground troops overrun them. In the rush to use them before losing them, the barrages will be more ragged and thus less likely to take place in numbers large enough to overwhelm Iron Dome's capabilities.

Indeed, Hamas will no doubt attempt to build up a volley capability that allows them to get in some shots that at least initially exceed the capacity of Iron Dome to defend.

Well That's a Bloody Giveaway

A China weapons dealer's promotional video showcased a system of integrated weapons capable of a bolt-from-the-blue attack on Taiwan:

The video showed drones being in charge of detection; M20s destroying oil depots, power plants, armored forces and F-16 jet fighters at Taiwan's air bases; A100s shelling enemy artillery and air defense sites; and air defense missiles intercepting counterattacks.

This fits well with my analysis of Chinese targets for an invasion of Taiwan:

A ballistic missile barrage will hit Taiwanese airfields, naval bases, army barracks and vehicle parks, leadership targets, air defense and anti-ship missile batteries, and ammunition depots shortly thereafter. Perhaps the Chinese use electromagnetic pulse weapons to fry Taiwanese electronics.

China smiles more often at Taiwan than it used to, but the Chinese still want to own Taiwan and make no secret that they'll use force if the smiling doesn't do the trick.

The Wonder Bread Economist

I can understand why Paul Krugman has no expertise to comment on foreign or defense affairs. But how can he screw up tax history analysis when that is supposedly within his expertise?

Tip to Instapundit.

Meanwhile in the Other Heart of Darkness

A long-simmering war that has caused huge casualtiesreignites under the noses of the international community.

And nobody much cares, it seems:

Rebel forces in eastern Congo vowed on Wednesday to "liberate" all of the vast central African country as they began seizing towns near the Rwandan border and spoke of a 1,000-mile march to the capital Kinshasa.

The M23 rebels, widely believed to be backed by Rwanda, captured the eastern city of Goma on Tuesday, a provincial capital home to a million people; United Nations peacekeepers simply looked on, after Congolese troops had quit the town.

If a single Jew fired a shot or a single Palestinian could claim victimhood, I'm sure the People of Concern around the world would be very upset.

UPDATE: More on the latest events in this long war.

Asymmetric Warfare

Israel is pounding Hamas in the Gaza Strip from the air and sea in order to stop Palestinians from lobbing rockets at Israeli civilians. This is a difficult mission.

It is difficult because Israel's objective is to stop the Palestinian rockets. And the Palestinian objective is to retain the ability to fire rockets at Israeli civilians until that glorious day when Palestine is Judenfrei. Until a big friend has nukes, you do what you can with high explosives.

A ceasefire won't solve that problem. But it will stop the rockets for a while, after Hamas has been hammered enough to worry more about their lives and rule than they are about having one more shot at an Israeli civilian neighborhood.

So the Obama administration continues to seek a halt to fighting. Which must be such a shock to Secretary of State Clinton since the last Gaza Winter War ended just as Barack Obama was sworn in as President of the United States. So the rocket arsenal Hamas is using was put together in the shadow of the Cairo Outreach. Fancy that.

It seems more likely that Israel will not go in to Gaza, unless the Israelis are really trying hard to make Egypt feel like Israel is doing all it can to avoid a ground campaign. Hard to say. If the Israelis haven't gone in after a week of air bombardment, the odds of a ground incursion go way down, I think.

But unless Israeli troops are standing on the ground when a ceasefire is eventually agreed to, it will be easier for Hamas and the global Left to obscure who was the ass-kicker and who was the ass-kickee.

Air power is outstanding, if focused by good intelligence, as an instrument for a good old-fashioned punitive expedition that avoids casualties among your own forces. But it can only inflict pain and relies on your enemy deciding it has endured enough pain secure in the knowledge that ground will not change hands and at worst you dust yourself off (few Hamas leaders will fail to survive to bombardments--especially if they've fled to Egypt for the duration), rebuild your palace, and continue the war against the enemy when you get resupplied by Iran and Sudan.

So the Palestinians will continue to wage war on Israel to seek their extermination. And Israel will have to continue to mount punitive expeditions to stop the Palestinians from actively attacking too often to achieve that glorious day when "death to the Jews" is a historical reference rather than a rallying cry.

Yet Israel is the bad guy that inspires private warfare against Israel by the Anonymous hacker collective:

Anonymous - the multifaceted movement of online rebels and self-described “hacktivists,” spearheaded the campaign against Israel, distributing press releases and videos denouncing what it described as an “insane attack” against Gaza. The cyber onslaught began after Israel launched airstrikes against Gaza last week following persistent rocket fire.

Yes, spending four years gathering rockets for the chance to kill a few Jews rather than trying to build a prosperous future for Palestinians in Gaza is "sane" while trying to stop slow down to an acceptable rate rocket attacks is "insane."

The asymmetric diagnoses are disturbing.

UPDATE: The punitive expedition is over:

Israel and the Hamas militant group reached a cease-fire agreement Wednesday to end the fiercest round of fighting in nearly four years, promising to halt attacks on each other and ease an Israeli blockade constricting the Gaza Strip.

Egypt's foreign minister, Mohammed Kamel Amr, said the deal was set to take effect at 9 p.m. local time. (2 p.m. EDT), capping days of intense efforts that drew the world's top diplomats into the fray. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stood next to Amr as he announced the breakthrough at a news conference in Cairo.

This is what passes for peace in the area. The Israelis have made the pain of firing at Israeli civilians greater than the joy of firing at Israeli civilians. For a time, anyway.

UPDATE: Without a ground operation, Israel may not have rubbed Hamas' nose in the mess it left Palestinians to impress upon them the fact that they got their asses kicked:

"Allahu akbar, (God is greatest), dear people of Gaza you won," blared mosque loudspeakers in the enclave as the truce took effect. "You have broken the arrogance of the Jews."

Fifteen minutes later, wild celebratory gunfire echoed across the darkened streets of Gaza, which gradually filled with crowds waving Palestinian flags. Ululating women leaned out of windows and fireworks lit up the sky.

Hamas leaders welcomed the agreement, calling it a triumph for armed resistance, and thanking Egypt for its role.

To be fair, Hezbollah claimed victory after 2006 and they've been quiet since then, in the post-conflict reality that they took one on the chin despite the fact that Israel failed to really hit them as hard as Israel could have.

Give the Gazans time to contemplate what their victory cost them. Ululation may be hard to come by in a couple weeks.

The Rice Doctrine

So criticism of UN ambassador Susan Rice over her Sunday news shows false claims about Benghazi is racist and opposing her for Secretary of State for that and subsequent failures to explain her statements is also racist?

Well, why not take advantage of a silly charge that silly people level, relying on a silly media to give credibility? Let's take the Rice Doctrine abroad!

Make Susan Rice our Secretary of State. We can then tell anybody who criticizes our foreign policy (or any policy, at all--hello gun laws and death penalty!) that they are racists.

African-American president? Hello? How dare you?!

Now with a female and African-American Secretary of State? Can you say global war on women, too?

Oh God, please, let Susan Rice be lesbian to get a three-fer out of this.

If we could get a pass for bombing a Moslem state with oil into submission in 2011 despite the lack of a UN Security Council resolution authorizing regime change, what could we do to Iran if we had to?

The mind boggles. It would be a freaking license to kill. President Obama could put entire nations on a "kill list" and get nary a peep from civil liberties groups and the press corps.

President Obama would get a second Nobel Peace Prize for air rading villages after getting his first as he was bombing the Moon!

Hey, the 2009 Cairo Outreach and cringe-worthy sensitivity to Islamists hasn't achieved any progress at all. Let's have a Chicago Outreach that slams our foreign jihadi enemies and all critics from abroad with condemnations that would make even Rahm Emanuel blush.

Big Gulps Require Big Government

New York City's Mayor Bloomberg thinks the 911 system worked perfectly in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.

Hey, of course it worked. Like everything else, the city responded splendidly. They can even boast of the achievement that no relief agency distributed cups larger than 16 ounces.

Mission accomplished.

Spiking the Ball

Climate change is on the path to defeat and coal is dead.

Well, our CIA thinks so:

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has shuttered its Center on Climate Change and National Security, an office created in 2009 to serve as the “focal point” of the agency’s work on the topic.

We don't need a focal point, after 16 years of flat global temperatures, I guess.

Tip to Instapundit.

The End of the Beginning

However ill-armed Syria's rebels are, they are out-fighting the Syrian security forces. Never during the Iraq or Afghan wars have our enemies ever overrun or besieged a major base. Shoot, even small outposts have never been overrun despite some very scary attacks in Afghanistan. Yet in Syria, the rebels just overran a regiment's base.

The Syrian army just isn't good enough or large enough to win the war. The Syrian regime is already seeing territory lost to the rebels. I've noted the heavy casualties the Syrian army has suffered in contrast to our fights in Iraq and Afghanistan. And I've noted the poor sortie rate of the Syrian air force. These are indications that the Syrian war effort is inadequate and that their troops just aren't up to the fight.

And now the Syrian rebels have actually captured a Syrian army base:

After a nearly two-month siege, Syrian rebels overwhelmed a large military base in the north of the country and made off with tanks, armored vehicles and truckloads of munitions that rebel leaders say will give them a boost in the fight against President Bashar Assad's army.

The rebel capture of the base of the Syrian army's 46th Regiment is a sharp blow to the government's efforts to roll back rebels gains and shows a rising level of organization among opposition forces.

The rebels captured a small number of heavy equipment and a good amount of ammunition.

Granted, it is unclear how many troops defended the base after the 50-day siege. Did the troops desert, retreat, or fight hard to defend the base?

Had the Syrian army largely abandoned the base but left a token force to hold as long as possible?

But since this is near Aleppo, why would the government have abandoned an army base likely important to supporting operations in the city that Assad is bizarrely (because I think capturing or holding it is biting off too much) fighting to control?

It's one thing to lose land out in the east that will have no real effect on the fight in the west. But this is a loss in the main theater. Whether Assad lost the base in a tough fight or deliberately abandoned it, the morale effect on his troops won't be good and the morale effect on the rebels will be quite good.

I won't say this is the beginning of the end. But it could well be the end of the beginning. Rebels victories could come at a faster clip and be more apparent to observers.

UPDATE: As poorly armed as they are, the rebels are doing a credible job of constraining the Syrian army and claim the gains will allow them to win Aleppo:

After months of fighting, Syrian opposition forces in Aleppo say that in the past week they’ve captured several critical areas from government forces that may soon give them the upper hand in northern Syria. The new ground will allow opposition groups to strain or potentially cut off supplies to government troops fighting in Aleppo Province.

It was foolish for Assad to fight for Aleppo. His army is bleeding to death for this objective.

UPDATE: The air defense assets of the rebel liberated zone are on order from NATO:

"Ambassadors will have an initial informal discussion on the Turkish request today," a NATO official said. Turkey said the NATO ambassadors would meet shortly, while the head of NATO said the alliance would discuss the request "without delay".

The NATO secretary general also said the Patriot deployment was about stopping mortar fire from going into Turkey and not to create a no-fly zone.

Patriot anti-aircraft missiles do not have the capability to shoot down mortar rounds.

UPDATE: Thanks to Stones Cry Out for the link.

Waking Up After the Nightmare

The Tuaregs thought that the jihadis wouldn't be too bad as allies to gain independence from Mali's government. They've learned their lesson as the jihadis are behaving very badly. If the Tuaregs have an Awakening to turn on the jihadis, it would make the counter-attack north next year possible even without the French leading the way. But what might al Qaeda do with their sanctuary until then?

I've figured that a counter-attack north in Mali needs a French spearhead. I've speculated that a full Tuareg Awakening might make the French unnecessary to eject the jihadis. There have been stories that the Tuaregs would turn on the jihadis in exchange for more autonomy within Mali rather than independence as they originally wanted. Living under the jihadis will do that to you.

Tuaregs seem to be turning on the jihadis:

Islamist gunmen fought Tuareg separatist rebels on Monday in a battle for control of the town of Menaka in Mali's northern desert, close to the border with Niger, both sides said.

The renewed fighting came as African leaders put the finishing touches to an international intervention plan to retake Mali's north from a patchwork of armed groups who the West suspects of providing a platform for militant attacks.

Of course, the Tuareg revolt is a bit premature considering that the southern, internationally blessed counter-offensive is at least 6 months off.

Can the Tuaregs match the jihadis in the short run on their own? Would French or American special forces help the Tuaregs before the counter-offensive begins?

If the Tuaregs manage to defeat the jihadis before then, will the Tuaregs decide independence is on the agenda, after all?

And until they are defeated, will the jihadis use their safe haven for something worse than just ticking off the Tuaregs and destroying local cultural icons?

Mostly Hanging Together

So far, China has Cambodia to do their dirty work in ASEAN to prevent a formal regional response to China's expansive claims for the waters off of China. But the rest seem admirably willing to stand up to China:

The acrimony provided an uneasy backdrop to U.S. President Barack Obama's arrival in Cambodia for a regional summit where he is expected to urge China and Southeast Asian nations to resolve the row, one of Asia's biggest security issues.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda challenged efforts by summit host Cambodia, a staunch China ally, to limit discussions on the mineral-rich sea, where China's territorial claims overlap those of four Southeast Asian countries and of Taiwan.

"Prime Minister Noda raised the issue of the South China Sea, noting that this is of common concern for the international community, which would have direct impact on peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific," a Japanese government statement said after Noda met leaders from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The Thais reinforced the notion that this isn't just a regional issue and that the "international community" (read that as "America") has an interest:

While the territorial row was a matter for the "parties concerned," maritime security and freedom of navigation were an international concern, said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, permanent secretary at Thailand's foreign ministry.

"If it comes to the broader issue of maritime security, meaning freedom of navigation, security of sea lanes, I think that is a concern of all countries," he told reporters.

That from another vital pivot point for our Asia-Pacific focus.

China used a soft-power charm offensive to make friends and influence people while they were weaker. Now that they are stronger, they are abandoning that tactic in favor of bullying and threats. But China is only getting more powerful rather than being powerful enough to get away with hard power threats.

Bits Fall Off

Syria has so few loyal troops that garrisons in the east are basically on their own to hold as long as they can with no hope of being able to mount counter-attacks to regain lost ground. Their only hope is that Assad can win the war in the west and then shift forces to the east. That is highly unlikely.

Syrian rebels captured the Hamdan airport in the east:

If rebels keep their hold on the airport, then Albu Kamal, a border city of more than 60,000 people, is likely to stay in rebel hands, said Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The fighters seized Albu Kamal two days ago but had been unable to take the nearby Hamdan airport, from which helicopters had been taking off and hitting rebel areas.

"These new captures means that the largest territory outside of regime control is now the region along the Iraqi border in Deir al-Zor," he said.

But the rebels' hold of territory on the ground is unlikely to prevent attacks from the sky, in what has become a typical cycle for clashes between the Syrian army and rebels.

If memory serves me, this was the last Syria station on the suicide bomber pipeline that drew in jihadis from the Sunni world to send them into Iraq.

This is part of a general erosion of Assad's position in the east:

A Syrian rebel offensive that captured border crossings with Turkey and Iraq aims to cut off supplies from the country's main grain and oil-producing region and speed President Bashar al-Assad's downfall, a tribal leader said.

Speaking from the rebel-held town of Ras al-Ain on the border with Turkey, Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir said rebels are planning to advance into two lightly defended frontier towns further east in the resource-rich province of Hasaka, 600 km (375 miles) from Damascus.

Free Syrian Army fighters captured Ras al-Ain ten days ago in a push to seize control of frontier areas from Assad's forces.

Apparently, Assad finally understands that he can't afford to fight for that territory:

"The regime is seeing that it can no longer maintain a hold on outlying provinces. It is starting to pull back forces to defend Damascus," he added.

Indeed. It was clear from the beginning that Assad had to cut his losses in the east to focus on the west. At best, he could nail down the west and then reclaim the east.

But Assad has lost too many troops to do this. I don't think he can hold the west--from Aleppo down to the Israeli border. Assad would be lucky to be able to hold the Alawite core coastal area plus a buffer zone inland, and notably excluding Damascus itsels. Ideally Assad would get some very visible Russian support to bolster his people's morale in such a contraction of his state.

Or, Assad can keep fighting the way he is and watch the slow cumulative process of bits falling away from his control accelerate until it is too late to fall back to a Rump Alawite state.

Don't let the prospects of chaos confuse the the reality that if Assad's regime falls, this will be a victory for us. Period. The Baathist regime of the Assads has done us a lot of harm over the decades and has a lot of American blood on its hands.

Coping with the fall of Assad will be another challenge, to say the least. And bad things can happen. But no victories in foreign policy solve all problems. Decisive defeat of the Nazis who threatened Western civilization in Europe just left us a powerful Soviet Union looming over Western Europe.

Work the problems. There will always be another to worry about. I only hope for diplomacy smart enough to keep the rate at a manageable level.

Gaza Raid

Israel will have time for ground operations in Gaza. But not too much. Israel needs to balance the need to protect their people now from Hamas rockets with the need to protect their people in the future from a better armed Hamas or even a hostile Egypt.

I'll be shocked if Hamas is willing to give what Israel can accept to avoid a ground phase. I'll be more shocked if air and naval bombardment are enough to cripple the Hamas rocket threat.

Stratfor writes that nobody but Egypt is really trying to engineer a ceasefire in Gaza:

It is interesting to note the remarkable indifference of most countries that normally rush to mediate such disputes, the United States chief among them. Washington has essentially endorsed the Israeli position so strongly that it has no option to mediate. The Turks, who had been involved with the Gaza issue during the flotilla incident of May 2010, have taken no steps beyond rhetoric in spite of relations with both Hamas and Israel. The Saudis have also avoided getting involved.

The Egyptians have been the most active in trying to secure a cease fire[.]

The Israelis have an incentive to talk to the Egyptians to buy time to use force and to keep the Egyptians from feeling more pressure from Islamists to back Hamas with real support.

But it doesn't look like the Israelis are willing to trust their air and naval bombardment has done enough damage:

Israel bombed dozens of targets in Gaza on Monday and said that while it was prepared to step up its offensive by sending in troops, it preferred a diplomatic solution that would end Palestinian rocket fire from the enclave.

As international pressure mounted for a truce, mediator Egypt said a deal to end the fighting could be close.

So Israel says they'd prefer a diplomatic solution--which the Egyptians are involved in discussing--but how likely is it that Hamas will agree to a diplomatic solution that meets Israeli objectives of protecting their civilians from rocket attack--especially the newer longer-ranged rockets?

Not likely at all. I can't imagine Israel trying to re-occupy Gaza. But a large-scale raid to tear up Hamas infrastructure and grab intelligence (and leave intelligence-gathering devices behind?) seems likely.

Hamas is likely on its own--at least for a couple weeks. Hezbollah is busy holding its home turf and worrying about the fall of Assad. Iran is busy with coping with sanctions, pushing their nuclear program, and worrying about the fall of Assad. Turkey is worried about the rule of Assad. Jordan has its hands full worrying about an outbreak of Arab Spring--and the situation in Syria. Lebanon just isn't a factor with all its factions, problems, and foreign involvement stoking problems and factionalism. The wider Sunni Arab world isn't eager to side with Iran-supported Hamas--as long as Israel doesn't take too long to smash up Hamas.

Only Egypt is really a factor for Israel, and if Israel looks like it is trying to follow Egypt's lead, Israel can get some time to tear up Hamas without pushing Egypt to a hostile orientation. Just allowing free traffic of arms across the Egypt-Gaza border would be a huge problem for Israel. However little a military threat Egypt is to Israel in the short run, in the long run Israel cannot have a hostile, large, and potentially powerful (enough) Egypt on their long Sinai border.