Talking Can Always Be Plan B

I knew it couldn't be that difficult for our CIA to figure out who to arm in Syria:

A small number of C.I.A. officers are operating secretly in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which Syrian opposition fighters across the border will receive arms to fight the Syrian government, according to American officials and Arab intelligence officers.

The weapons, including automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition and some antitank weapons, are being funneled mostly across the Turkish border by way of a shadowy network of intermediaries including Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood and paid for by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the officials said.

I salute the Obama administration for this move. On top of non-lethal aid, this helps in trying to defeat Assad (and indirectly defeat Iran).

I simply reject the idea that arming rebels against a cruel regime "militarizes the conflict" and simply expands the violence as if allowing the cruel regime to impose a peace of a cemetery is the highest objective. If Syrians wish to risk their lives for freedom, who are we to say they are wrong?

Assad deserves all the payback we can inflict after his (and his father's) reign of terror in the region and the many Iraqis (civilian and armed) and American and Coalition troops who died because of Syria's support for al Qaeda in Iraq.

If the rebels win, I think that is great as a signal that we will get our revenge for such outrages. Does this mean I expect Syria to be immediately better after Assad? Don't know. Don't care. Not for this objective. We should attempt to make Syria better after Assad, but that's the next mission.

And even if Assad wins, we can just smile and talk again. Anyone here who objects to our helping Assad's enemies because it will ruin options for diplomacy with Assad must remember their oft-repeated bumper sticker foreign policy that you talk peace with enemies and not friends. Hey, these people on our left had no problem talking to Assad despite all the American blood on Assad's hands, now did they? So Assad can just get over our help for rebels who aimed to overthrow him.

Have I Got a Resurgent Mission For You!

The "resurgent" Taliban can't possibly afford many more missions like this that demonstrate how "resilient" they are:

Elite Afghan police backed by NATO forces ended a 12-hour siege on Friday at a popular lakeside hotel outside Kabul, leaving at least 20 dead after Taliban gunmen stormed the lakeside building, bursting into a party and seizing dozens of hostages.

The night-time assault on the hotel with rocket-propelled grenades, suicide vests and machine guns again proved how potent the Islamist insurgency remains after a decade of war. ...

Afghan interior ministry spokesman Sediq Sediqqi said 12 to 15 civilians, two hotel guards and a policeman were killed in the gunbattle at the Spozhmai hotel, overlooking Qargha Lake. Five attackers were also killed.

Or if they can afford more, getting volunteers will get more difficult.

Operations like this are media operations. Yes, it would be nice to be able to stop a force of this size from hitting friendly targets. But with a sanctuary across the border in Pakistan, that is tough to do.

But in the end, Taliban gunmen attacked a civilian target guaranteed to get media attention and dug in waiting to die. Pity more didn't die. But in the end, they retreated.

The failure to seal off the hotel and kill all of the attackers if this really was a large attack is the main failure, as far as I can see.

If we sent our troops into situations where our troops could only look forward to dying at the hands of the enemy after holding out for a while and retreating, would our press describe our military effort as "resurgent" or "resilient"?

Titanium Hips and All

I saw Mitch Ryder play in downtown Ann Arbor on Friday.

I tried several times to upload a video I took, but no go. To be fair, I never tried uploading one that long before.

I don't think he was kidding about titanium hips.

There were some initial problems with the sound system, but the crowd was obviously very pro-Mitch and so forgave that. Some looked kind of seedy, truth be told.

He played as part of a summer music series that is ongoing.

This was actually my favorite song that he performed:



No titanium hip then, I assume. What amazes me about that video is that it is so old, MTV actually played music videos. I loved MTV when it did that ...

I even managed to figure out how to work the zoom feature of my camera:

I really miss having a physical manual. What else can it do? Oh well.

I do like summer in Ann Arbor.

Wednesday, 22 JUN 88

15 more days. I didn't go on

sick call. I made the 2-mile

run at PT but my leg tightened

up severely and my knee is fucked.

Leg loosened up during day. I hope

it holds for PT diagnostic

test tomorrow. Relatively

easy day. Details for all.

Picked up trash and mowed grass.

Later we were threatened--

clean all including lockers--or dog (?).

To sleep by 10:00. Will be

up to later than 3:30 a.m.

Letter from [fiance] today.

Good to hear from her. I wish

I could call her.

I do recall that PT run. Man, did it hurt. My leg loosened up as we ran but after my muscles just locked up. when we had to run after that for short distances, I limped at a run. Which is probably what was screwing up my knee. Before we had the real PT test, we'd have a practice one so the drill sergeants would have one last chance to see if they needed to motivate somebody.

The chores weren't that rough. It was like socialism in action. That was my experience with duty days while in the military. A sergeant would be given the job of getting certain tasks done. If we did it relatively quickly, the sergeant would have time off that he didn't need to use to supervise us. So we'd then be dumped somewhere to wait until our allocated time to do the tasks was over.

OK, for whatever reason our drill sergeants saw the need to threaten us to work harder on cleaning up. I'm not sure why. And for the first time, I'm unsure of a word in my journal. The context makes it seem like I said "dog" as in they'd dog us--drop us and work us silly, in other words. But the form I wrote doesn't work grammatically. But no other likely three-letter word makes sense. The only other word that might work is "day" but that makes no sense.

I will say that although I was very happy to have contact with my fiance--I was madly in love, after all--I sometimes wonder if I didn't write this stuff because I assumed she'd read my journal. I know I left out things in case the drill sergeants read it and counted on my memory to fill in the blanks. Keeping the peace at home would not be out of bounds by mentioning her frequently. Funny enough, she never did want to read it.

Admire the Stand on Principle

Poor Iran. Those rude Israelis are saying they will attack Iran if Iran doesn't stop their nuclear activities through diplomacy:

Israel has responded to the failure of the latest nuclear talks between world powers and Iran with a familiar refrain: sanctions must be ramped up while the clock ticks down toward possible military action.

Poor Iran. All they want are the fruits of peaceful nuclear energy and medical options!

Iran says it is enriching only to make reactor fuel or medical isotopes and insists it has a right to enrich under international law.

You have to admire the Iranians. They are willing to endure isolation and sanctions no matter how much it hurts Iran's economy--and ignore military threats, too--for the principle of being able to pursue the ability to create reactor fuel and medical isotopes.

I know. Suspicious people will say that only the pursuit of nuclear weapons could justify such a risky defiance of powerful nations and enduring possibly crippling economic sanctions. But I find that lack of faith in Iran's mullahs just plain sad.

Such a high-minded defense of international law is touching.

Have a lovely day.

Situation Excellent?

NRO's Nordlinger is in Taiwan. I have to  express agreement with some of the judgments on Taiwan's strategic position.

First, while one Taiwanese professor believes China would like to win without war, a war will be fast-paced:

But if China did attack — it would want to gobble Taiwan quickly, says Lin. It would want to subdue Taiwan immediately. China’s seizure of Taiwan would be a fait accompli before the world could react — if the world were inclined to react.

That's long been my judgment.

Second, whether China unleashes their military or slowly intimidates Taiwan into submission, Taiwan can't keep up with China:

Lin makes the simple but important point that Taiwan can’t compete with the PRC in military force or money. So what must Taiwan rely on? “Diplomacy, art, science — wisdom.” Taiwan can’t afford to get angry. Taiwan must be cagey and patient.

There are two trends in Taiwan right now, says Lin. The first is to delay unification for as long as possible. (Lin prefers the term “integration” to “unification.”) The second is to intensify Taiwan’s role as catalyst: a catalyst for Chinese democratization.

It's hard to escape the conclusion that rising Chinese power will become strong enough to get the time they need to conquer Taiwan despite our forces' efforts to the contrary.

Not that it is unimportant to try to keep up in military terms. Taiwan needs to buy time.

But if Taiwan's defenses are giving way and their international space is in retreat, even if you can't describe their situation as excellent, they must attack with means more likely to lead to success.

Taiwan must somehow try to turn China's soft-power offensive against the Chinese Communist Party and somehow nudge China (or the Chinese people by giving them a lesson in real democracy practiced by real people) to not want to conquer Taiwan.

Sometimes the only option is to attack--no matter how bad your situation seems.

It's a Funny World

It is almost comforting that other countries have insane policy analysis, too. Let's look at a recent South Korean kerfluffle.

One, South Korea is a free and prosperous nation that faces a gulag with a UN seat that threatens to turn Seoul into a sea of fire on a regular basis, kills South Koreans periodically, seeks nuclear weapons, maintains an army poised to invade South Korea, and is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of North Koreans from starvation or execution.

Two, the third largest political party, United Progressive Party, is pro-North Korean.

Three, the UPP was caught in voting fraud.

Four, the main opposition party, Democratic United Party, allied with the UPP in the April elections.

Five, the ruling party, the Grand National Party, wants the two opposition parties to purge pro-North Korea members.

So how does the author of the linked article, a senior fellow at Seoul's Institute for Peace and Cooperation, portray the scandal and GNP move?

South Korea is boiling. An ideological blowout characterized by some as Korean McCarthyism is rocking the country, with increasing calls for a loyalty oath as a prerequisite for political candidacy. ...

The voting irregularities earned ideological scrutiny because of the left’s miscalculation on the one hand and on the other because of the right’s tireless bashing.

The ruling party has seized on the scandal as a method of shaming the opposition parties into rooting out the North Korea sympathizers at the National Assembly. It is almost impossible to remove the two lawmakers from their seats unless they voluntarily step down. The political greed of the far leftists in attempting to rig the ballots has enlivened the hard right-wing groups and helped to improve the right’s prospects in the December presidential election. The governing party is likely to play the so-called comsymp card to influence the voters.

Not voter fraud--just irregularities and political greed.

And the right's attempt to get rid of actual pro-North Korean legislators and--brace yourself--convince voters that having pro-North Korean legislators is bad is mere McCarthyism playing the comsymp (communist sympathizer) card.

Really.

When I start to feel depressed about the ability of our left and their media friends to sympathize with our enemies, I can think about South Korea where the right's reaction to left-wing crimes and active sympathy for an actual enemy is the problem and not the left's crimes and active sympathy for a cruel and bloody enemy that would destroy South Korea if they had the chance.

It'a a funny world. But not in a good way.

Connecting the Dots

Disputes over ownership of the South China Sea continue.

One:

China has spent nearly $1 billion on an ultra-deepwater rig that appears intended to explore disputed areas of the South China Sea, one of Asia's most volatile hotspots and where the United States is strengthening ties with Beijing's rival claimants.

And two:

China on Thursday "vehemently opposed" a Vietnamese law asserting sovereignty over islands in disputed waters, the latest escalation in tensions over the resource-rich South China Sea.

The row comes days after an easing in a months-long stand-off between China and the Philippines, but shows the persistent cycle of territorial frictions triggered by what some see as Beijing's growing assertiveness in the area.

As China attempts to connect the dots of land in the South China Sea to create seamless Chinese territory, advocates of the law of the sea treaty shouldn't be allowed to imply that our signing of the treaty will prevent such disputes or help solve them.

Not that I'm saying that China has no legitimate claims or that all of China's neighbors' claims are valid. But China's claim to all of it and their conclusions about what that means are not legitimate and not in our interests.

And the treaty we have not ratified simply does not apply to these little dots of land and the disputes over who owns them.

I just don't understand why the UN law of the sea is so important to our interests.

An Assad No-Fly Zone?

The rebels' hope for victory in Syria rest on either Turkey invading or the Assad loyalists cracking under the strain of failing to suppress the rebels. Either event could give the rebels organized military units capable of defeating Assad's remaining loyalist security units.

This is interesting:

The pilot of a Syrian MiG 21 fighter jet who flew his plane to Jordan on Thursday asked for political asylum on landing, Jordanian Minister of State for Information Samih al-Maaytah said.

Khaddafi saw a couple pilots (or at least one) defect and fly their planes to Malta, if I recall. And he managed to keep fighting a long time. So I'm not saying that this means the Assad forces are about to crack.

But it looks bad for Assad. So the question is, as the ground forces struggle against an expanding rebellion, can Assad risk committing his air power to the fight at the price of occasional additional defections?

The fear of how more pilot defections would look could be a more effective no-fly zone than any UN-authorized and NATO-manned air patrol.

Tuesday, 21 JUN 88

Wet bulb. Reinforcement. Heat too

much to drop us. Got Dress As back

from laundry. Cleaning up still.

Little sleep. Good mood overall

today. Leg feels better. I won't

go on sick call tomorrow. I'll

tough it out and see what happens.

One will endure much pain to avoid

the stigma of S. L. & L. status.

Called home--[fiance] not home.

Spoke to mom. Dad still mad

at me apparently. The last thing

I have time to worry about. He'd

best get over it. E-3-10 duty

company all day tomorrow. We

won't carry rucksacks any more!

Will get little sleep tonight.

Wet bulb was the combination of temperature and humidity that halted training or physical exertion. So we sat in the shade and had reviews of tasks we'd need to demonstrate proficiency on.

This actually was probably the day that I was caught asleep sitting up and didn't know it. I know which drill sergeant nailed me and he was a Regular Army drill, so this is likely the time I was caught.

At the risk of repeating myself, my memory of the incident was that I was sitting there attentively listening to our drill sergeant when all of a sudden he was angrily pointing at me and quietly telling me "don't do that again." To which I replied, "yes, sergeant." When the sergeant moved on, I whispered to a guy sitting next to me, "What did I do?"

"You fell asleep!" He whispered it like it was obvious. Not to me. But at least I had avoided being caught falling asleep earlier in training when consequences would have been rougher.

And it is nice to read I was in a good mood. Honestly, regardless of my mood during the day, my memory of basic training is that my mood was almost uniformly good by the end of the day. Surviving a day and going to sleep--even if it was for too short a time--meant I'd get a break and a chance to get through another day.

And I vowed not to go on sick call despite my leg. It felt better, but it wasn't better. Probably just the break in training avoided aggravating the injury. Any relief was welcome and it was enough to keep me from being lumped in with the sick, lame, and lazy.

I finally got calls home. My dad did get over being mad at me. I knew he would. I certainly had more pressing concerns than to dwell on that issue.

We'd have various menial labor the next day, but we would no longer have to carry the weight of our rucksacks and the equipment in it. That weight pales in comparison to what actual infantry must carry around these days, but it was a relief to us.

Still, sleep was not issued to us in adequate amounts.

On the Eastern Frontier of NATO

The new NATO members of the Baltic States are surely happy to have US troops on the ground in their territory:

Saber Strike is a multi-national, joint exercise conducted in Latvia and Estonia. It is led by U.S. Army Europe and held from June 10-22, 2012. The Saber Strike exercise was developed to improve coalition interoperability, enhance the combat readiness of all participants, and facilitate a professional exchange with our NATO partners. By providing this training opportunity for U.S. Forces with our partners in the Baltic region, we get a chance to train on important combat tasks alongside of Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonia forces.

The exercise focus is on interoperability at the tactical level. Training on mission command is accomplished by conducting a combined-staff brigade-level command post exercise. Countries involved in the command post exercise (CPX) include: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, France, the United Kingdom and the U.S. combined tactical training is conducted as well with a field training exercise and a situational training exercise component. Countries involved in the field training exercise (FTX) and situational training exercise (STX) include: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Canada, Finland and the United States.

United States units participating come from the 21st Theater Sustainment Command out of Kaiserslautern, Germany, 2nd Cavalry Regiment out of Vilseck, Germany, and a Stryker company from the Pennsylvania National Guard. Additionally, a company of Marines from the 4th Marine Division and elements of the Michigan and Washington Air National Guards are also participating.

The 2nd ACR is also a Stryker unit. The Marine unit is a Marine Corps Reserve unit. Plus Air National Guard aircraft, apparently, from Michigan and Washington.

It is good to have NATO units on the ground there to remind Russia that they really aren't getting the Baltic States back.

Right now, light infantry and wheeled armored infantry are on the ground. I'll be happier when we have heavier forces available and a real plan to defend these new NATO nations, but this is a good start.

I Know I've Mentioned This Once or Twice

I enjoyed some extra time with my children on Father's Day. Sure, the premium instant coffee and mini-cheese cake were great (and the card, of course)--and what's with the push to make the parent days a present day? I resent that. The idea that we should get expensive presents on Father's Day or Mother's Day is a bit much to take.

We didn't do anything special to mark the day. This is present enough:

Screw quality time. I want the quantity.

I'm a lucky dad.

The Missions Remain

We left Iraq, but we still need troops to carry out missions for the security of Iraq. Apparently, we'll base them in Kuwait:

Q: (Off mic.) The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has released a report saying that upwards of 15,000 U.S. forces are currently in Kuwait. The number is expected to drop slightly to about 13,5(00). Why so many troops, when it was our understanding that as recently as six months ago there were only about 4,000 or so troops permanently based in Kuwait? Is this a training mission? Is this a show of force to Iran? Is this a contingency forward-leaning force for other crises in the region?

CAPT. KIRBY: We're aware of their report. This is dated today, so I don't believe we've had a chance to peruse it with any -- in any detail. But look, without getting into specific numbers in any one country there, there's roughly 40,000 or so American troops in and around the Central Command area of responsibility.

As I said, with the Navy that number does fluctuate from time to time. You would expect it to. But it is -- it's a long-standing presence that we've -- that we've maintained there. We'll continue to maintain. The secretary has been very clear that -- while we do this shift in focus to the Asia-Pacific, that the Central Command area responsibility will still remain a high priority. It does.

And those troops perform a variety of missions throughout the region, to include training, advising, assisting, and also to help act -- I think the chairman addressed this this morning -- as a deterrent against potential enemy activity in the region.

I think we have two heavy combat brigades in Kuwait, although one may be broken up for security missions and convoy escort (including in Iraq??). Plus logistics, air defense and aircraft presumably, and troops to maintain the ability to receive reinforcements rapidly in a crisis. It would be interesting to know what we have there. But the report cited doesn't say.

The missions remain in Iraq even if we didn't try hard enough to stay in Iraq. I would have preferred that we keep 3 brigades within a 25,000 troop level, but nobody asked me.

Let's Be Grown Ups About Pakistan

Lord knows I've expressed my frustration with Pakistan over the years.

But the idea that we should "divorce" Pakistan is insane.

You'd think that Pakistan would be the poster boy for "foreign policy realism," wouldn't you?

I mean, they may be SOBs, but they're mostly--on balance--our SOBs, no?

I always keep in mind that while Pakistan may be amazingly frustrating as an ally, if we could improve our relations with Iran to the same level, we'd consider it a triumph of our diplomacy.

And never forget that Pakistan could be much worse--usually at their own hands. Why should we contribute to the potential for chaos?

Work the problem of Pakistan. We may have a bit more leverage now, but use that leverage carefully.

Not That Reset, I'm Afraid

Governments will use points of pressure to influence other governments. That should be fairly obvious.

This is kind of funny:

Q: Back to the issue of Russia, have any Russian military or political leaders communicated to this department in any way any kind of threats that the Northern Distribution Network might not flow as smoothly as it is now if we push too hard on their assistance to Syria? And if not, are you concerned that they might do that if you do, like, stop ships from going into Tartus?

MR. LITTLE: Thanks for the question, Larry. It's a good one. I'm unaware of any such communication by the Russians. We're grateful for their support of the Northern Distribution Network, which I think I've described as a ground rule of military logistics in the past. It's an extremely complicated but essential network for our supplies in and out of Afghanistan. I have heard no indication that the Russians are going to change their participation in that network and would reiterate our thanks to the government of Russia for supporting it.

The idea that the Russians, of all paranoid people, would need to actually raise the threat explicitly for us to be aware of the threat is pretty funny. We know.

How reset do you think the Russians are, anyway?

Wow!

President Obama has been so successful in restoring civility to our political debate that his side needs to pay people to be uncivil! Tip to Instapundit.

Monday, 20 JUN 88

My leg still hurts like Hell

and my code ends tomorrow.

I have a dilemma. My

mood swings are extreme and

fast these days. 2 letters from

[fiance], 1 from office. Good to

hear from [fiance].

My injuries were the main source of my mood swings. It just sucked to be in pain all the time.

I remain grateful that I had split option training, which meant that I went to basic training, then went home, and then returned to active duty the next summer for advanced individual training. The vast majority of my basic training class went on to their school. I don't remember if they got a little time off for accumulated leave time, or not.

I had a school year to heal. Of course, I had a school year and a first year of marriage to gain 10 pounds and not exercise one bit. But overall it was a blessing to heal. Exercise in AIT wasn't as brutal, and in time I was at the top of my class with run times and PT scores--and those were regular Army PT requirements rather than the slightly lower basic training standards.

I worried that my leg would just give out. Barring that, I knew I would pass the final PT test. But my leg really was screwed up.

Yet I did not want to go on sick call.

But I'd already learned that too much hesitation could have been fatal given my previous reluctance to have my infected foot looked at.

I even got a pack of notes from my office colleagues at the University of Michigan Graduate Library where I worked then. I would return to work there after I got out.

And two letters from my fiance. I will say she kept writing. Future events weren't as happy but she was great on this score, I'll have to admit.

Hey Dude. Never Met You

This civilian instructor celebrated quite the milestone:

During the Army Birthday cake-cutting ceremony at Fort Leonard Wood Thursday, Melvin Hagarty took center stage. The post’s oldest civilian employee helped cut the birthday cake, along with Maj. Gen. Mark Yenter, the post’s commanding general, and Dr. Rebecca Johnson, the civilian deputy to the commanding general. ...

In 1982, Hagerty began his employment as a training instructor at the U.S Army’s Engineer School and has been there ever since.

This guy has been working at Fort Leonard Wood since before I was there for basic training.

I don't feel quite so old.

But he taught at the engineer school rather than the basic training part of the base. So I never met him and probably never saw him.

This is What Mischief Looks Like

Lamb offered to take a picture of me and Mister on Father's Day.

But before she could snap a picture, I busted her for planning to take her own picture in reverse mode.

She knew I was on to her:

That is the look of pure mischief in action.

She took several more blurry pictures of portions of me standing up and chasing her across the room to retrieve my iPod Touch.

Holding the Line

It is interesting that the attack on one of our bases 2-1/2 weeks ago really was pretty serious:

A June 1 attack on a U.S. outpost near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border was much worse than originally disclosed by the military as insurgents pounded the base with a truck bomb, killing two Americans and seriously wounding about three dozen troops, officials acknowledged Saturday.

The blast flattened the dining hall and post exchange at Forward Operating Base Salerno in Khost province, a frequent target of insurgents in the past. Five Afghan civilians were killed and more than 100 other U.S. troops were treated for minor injuries. U.S. officials estimated that the truck was carrying 1,500 pounds of explosives.

I did note in my post that I'd heard there was a huge explosion, even though the report I had in hand did not mention that aspect at all.

The base still held and we killed 14 attackers, so my basic point remains true that our bases are really hard targets to defeat:

Lt. Col. Jimmie Cummings, a U.S. military spokesman in Kabul, said that at all coalition bases, from the headquarters in Kabul to the smallest combat outpost, “protection is taken very seriously.”

The Taliban tried to use a really large bomb and still we held.

Yet I find it hard to believe that the bomb was not prepared in Pakistan--or that the bomb material didn't come in from Pakistan to be quickly prepared before being discovered by us.

The enemy is desperate to inflict large casualties in one attack. Penetrate the defense of one of our bases or outposts and get inside for a while and they might get 20 or 30 KIA which the enemy may believe will wreck our home morale.

Indeed, the enemy may have hoped that the bomb--by being aimed at the PX and dining facility--would inflict heavy casualties without having to follow up with a ground assault into the base. Hopefully we learned from this attack to deny the enemy the ability to get a truck bomb near enough to drop walls in high density buildings. That's making it too easy for the enemy to inflict casualties on us.

I hope that this possible enemy belief that one good hit will crack our ability to win isn't true. Even a successful Taliban attack--after denying the enemy such a propaganda win for 11 years in two wars--doesn't mean we are losing.

Our troops are holding the line. Can we hold at home? Will our president hold in the face of such a body count? Or will he run faster?