Very Good, Mr. Sappenfield

This is how Sappenfield starts his article on Canada's obsession with winning gold in men's hockey:

There have been some strange rumors swirling around Canada Hockey Place in Vancouver. Word is that some peculiar winter carnival is passing through town, in which people have been known to skate on ice without hockey sticks and race across the snow even when no bear was chasing them.

Bravo. That might be the best opening paragraph in a news story I've ever read.

Digging in to Stay

Russia is setting down roots in Abkhazia:

Russia and the Georgian rebel region of Abkhazia today signed a deal allowing Moscow to establish a military base on its soil, further raising tensions with Georgia.

This will add 1,300 troops to an existing force of 1,700, so it isn't anything radically different than the reality on the ground. And did anyone really expect Russia to leave?

Russia took the place and they're going to keep it. The 2008 war was just an exclamation point on this existing reality, anyway, and this is just more of the same.

Not that we should recognize Russia's conquest, but we aren't about to do anything about it. No more than we were willing to do anything during the Cold War about the Soviet Union's control of Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania.

But stuff happens if you give it enough time, eh? When lots of people made for the exits when they could to escape the Russians, we'll see how the locals like their new Moscow bosses.

Not Like Bush At All! Next Question

This article headline states that a war game demonstrated that we lack cyber-war skills, but the actual article focuses on lack of laws to wage cyber-war and doesn't even mention actual capabilities to wage such a war.

Look, I wonder if we have the capabilities and worry about outsourcing such fighting skills. But this article was not about skills. Why frame it as such with the title?

Is the administration perhaps a little nervous about proposing far-reaching legislation that could be very intrusive into our privacy given the hysteria over Bush-era terror-fighting signals intelligence wrongly portrayed in our press?

Quantity's Quality

Hugo Chavez is now purging supporters as he sees enemies everywhere:

The purge has revealed a power struggle at the highest levels of government, leading to the fall of some of Mr. Chávez’s military comrades and reports of secret dossiers on businessmen compiled here by intelligence agents from Cuba, Venezuela’s top ally.

It is interesting that he is basing this on Cuban assessments of his own people. That can't be a good sign for Hugo if he can't rely on his own spooks.

In the short run, Hugo gets rid of actual or potential enemies. And given how Hugo has effed up the Venezuelan economy, he gets to focus dwindling resources to buy the love of a smaller number of supporters.

But that is not a solution that can be carried on for long. Eventually, Hugo will have too few supporters to sleep well at night.

At Least They Aren't Shooting

The Ukraine election is still up in the air with a court challenge holding off resolution:

A Ukrainian court has suspended the result of the recent presidential election, following a challenge by losing candidate Yulia Tymoshenko.

Mrs Tymoshenko, the Prime Minister, made the appeal on Tuesday, claiming the result was rigged. International monitors deemed the vote free and fair.

The court says the result should be suspended while it considers the evidence she has submitted.

The winner, Viktor Yanukovych, is due to be inaugurated on 25 February.

The supreme administrative court ruling concerns the Ukrainian Central Electoral Commission's declaration on Sunday that Mr Yanukovych had won the vote.

The results showed him to have beaten Mrs Tymoshenko by a margin of 3.48%.

A win by the pro-Russian Yanukovych would be a real setback for the West and a gain for Putin. But on the other hand, as I've mentioned, before Ukraine can enter NATO it would be good if the people of Ukraine settled on a course of West or East. It would be bad to have had Ukraine in NATO already only to have them possibly leave (or worse, have pro-Russian elements in a position to pass information to Moscow).

It is bad if this election goes to Yanukovych, but as long as it isn't the last election it won't be a disaster. As long as Ukrainians can practice real democracy, they could reverse course the next time.

But that won't be clear until long after this election is resolved.

Nicely Timed

This is good timing given our new offensive in the Marjah region:

The Taliban's top military commander has been arrested in a joint CIA-Pakistani operation in Pakistan in a major victory against the insurgents as U.S. troops push into their heartland in southern Afghanistan, officials said Tuesday.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the group's No. 2 leader behind Afghan Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and a close associate of Osama bin Laden, was captured in the southern Pakistani port city of Karachi, two Pakistani intelligence officers and a senior U.S. official said.

We grabbed him ten days ago, and it is claimed he's talking. We'd want to say that no matter what, at this point. But the long silence on his capture seems to indicate we did get some information.

Who knows? Perhaps the timing of the launch of our long-telegraphed offensive was based on his capture and perhaps information gained from him, knowing he'd not be able to coordinate the initial response to our offensive.

This is also another reminder of the importance of the Pakistan side of the border in our efforts to win our portion of the Taliban War inside Afghanistan.

Science Fair, Again

The science continues for Lamb. The last couple weeks, Lamb has been enthusiastically working on her science fair project that is due this week.

This year we tested different types of acidic liquids to see if any are better than vinegar for making volcanoes. Lamb loves to make volcanoes, so she was pretty excited about the experiment.

This year, we abandoned my science-project-in-a-box philosophy and went to the standard big board.

Lamb spent about 4 hours working on the project over three days. An hour and a half seemed her limit.

I spent about 3 hours typing stuff and preparing. Lamb isn't ready for typing. I have to remind myself that Mister typed none of his first project--and his was in 3rd grade. Lamb is a year earlier and about 8 months younger for her birth month in grade. It wasn't until 5th grade that Mister typed all his project, and I still formatted it for him.

Lamb hopes for another trophy after her triumphant kindegarten debut. But I don't know how likely it is that she will get another trophy, since that doesn't seem to be quite how the fair works. But who knows?

I'm glad Lamb is interested in science. My little girl can do anything she wants when she grows up. Darn straight.

UPDATE: Lamb won a first prize ribbon! If I understand it correctly, only a couple of those are offered per grade level plus the trophy for the top project. I'm very proud of Lamb. I think she could have gotten the trophy with an expanded conclusion section, but I worried that discussing issues of how to do the experiment better or different experiments to explore the same issue would have been a bit too sophisticated for her age. And I didn't want it to seem like my project rather than her project. Oh well. Live and learn. Next year the conclusion section gets expanded. I'll just have to make sure it is age appropriate. Lamb may yet get a second trophy in science!

So tonight the science fair (and drat, I forgot my camera at home) and then off to Hill Auditorium to hear Mister in his class orchestra (and every other class orchestra in the city, too). It will be a long day. Thank goodness I have Friday off. I'm a lucky dad, no doubt.

Helicopters Surprised Them?

I find this assesment of the Marjah offensive fairly amazing if true:

U.S. Marines and Afghan forces airlifted over the Taliban -laid minefields into the center of Marjah town Saturday, apparently surprising the insurgents and taking strategic positions from them, according to military officials. ...

The helicopter airlift into the heart of the city of 80,000 started around 2 a.m. and allowed the troops to quickly establish 11 posts throughout Marjah, while the bulk of the 15,000-man force carefully picked its way overland.

How is it possible for the Taliban, after over eight years of war, to be surprised by our use of helicopters to airlift troops?

UPDATE: Our airlift at 2:00 AM did indeed surprise the enemy:

Troops quickly occupied key buildings, and the Taliban found that their defense of the town had been wrecked. That wasn't the only damage. Evidence was found, and publicized, that the Taliban had burned some Korans, apparently in preparation of a photo op where the "desecration" would be broadcast to the Moslem world. But in the case, the Taliban were caught holding the match.

Funny how enemy desecration of Korans doesn't get the same outrage in the Moslem world. Of course, enemy use of mosques as fighting positions, bases, and arms deports throughout the Iraq War never seemed to arouse any fury in the Moslem world, either. Go figure.

Good Fences Make Good Neighbors

An aside in this article about cross-strait detente is really what drew my attention:

[There] is no public debate in mainland China about taking control over Taiwan, by force if necessary. Most Chinese citizens assume Taiwan a a whole wants to be "reunited" with the mainland.

Very few Taiwanese actually want to be reunited with China, though their opinion is divided on trying to thaw relations and draw closer to the mainland with economic and travel ties.

But the Chinese people believe Taiwanese want to be "reunited." That is a very dangerous illusion to let stand.

It strikes me that Taiwan could do itself a lot of good by beginning a broad and sustained information campaign directed at ordinary Chinese that tells them that the Taiwanese would love to be friends with China--but that they cherish their democratic freedom and current status quo of de facto (only) independence.

The last thing the Taiwanese want the Chinese to believe--should Peking's rulers try to conquer the island democracy--is that the Taiwanese welcome their new mainland overlords.

Still Simmering

Thursday's mass rallies to celebrate the anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran was managed by the regime to keep the opposition from taking over the day from bussed-in regime supporters.

There was no mass blood bath to either crush the opposition or to inspire more to join it.

Bottom line? The crisis goes on:

The regime appears to have managed successfully what could have been a momentum-building event for the decentralized opposition movement and its various stakeholders. It is not at all clear based solely on Thursday’s events, however, that the regime’s performance, centered in one strategic location of the capital, is sustainable for an indefinite period of time and across the country. It will be critical to observe in the coming weeks and months how the elements of the opposition—buoyed by what appeared to be a more aggressive showing during recent protests late in 2009—react to Thursday’s outcome. This week marked another round of tensions within Iran, and although the regime may have passed this test, it remains impossible to issue a conclusive verdict on the viability and strength of the opposition.

I have no means of judging whether the protests--surprisingly durable--can broaden enough to threaten the regime. Or maybe the government will eventually snuff out the protests by holding them at bay with relatively narrow use of open violence amidst targetted arrests, imprisonments, rapes, and executions.

The opposition deserves our support, of course. But that isn't in the cards. So all I can do is read competing analyses of the protest movement and government and guess about the relative strengths of the two sides.

Stupid Is As Stupid Does?

The last time Iraq held parliamentary elections, the Sunni Arabs boycotted the vote and later regretted it deeply. It was a stupid decision based on the belief that they could bomb their way to victory instead.

Today, Iraq's Sunni Arabs are blindly focused on de-Baathification rulings that have banned a number of Sunni Arab candidates (although not exclusively Sunni Arabs):

Iraqi officials confirmed on Saturday that appeals by prominent Sunni politicians against a move to ban them from next month's election had failed, opening the door to sectarian recriminations that could mar the vote.

Many Iraqi Sunnis are alarmed by a campaign by the Shi'ite-led government against people accused of links to former Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein's Baath party, and a decision by a panel to ban almost 500 candidates because of Baathist links.

The controversy has threatened to reopen old wounds just when the sectarian slaughter triggered by the 2003 U.S. invasion has begun to fade and Iraq has started to attract multibillion-dollar investments from global oil firms.

Usama al-Ani, deputy head of the independent electoral commission, or IHEC, said the agency had received a formal notification from an appeals panel that only 26 appeals by banned candidates had been successful.

One hundred and forty-five appeals were rejected, he said. Other candidates had been voluntarily replaced by their parties.

I don't know nearly enough about the banned candidates to judge whether these people are wrongly accused or whiny "ex-Baathists."

But regardless, the solution lies within the system and not by boycotting the election and thinking they can restart their war. They lost. Iraq's security apparatus is much stronger now than three years ago when the Awakening took off. And the Sunni Arabs are much weaker with al Qaeda in Iraq a shadow of its former strength. Further, a lot of the leaders are now known to the Iraqi government with biometric data taken.

It is even possible that many Shias and Kurds would love the Sunni Arabs to--again--boycott the elections and stay outside the government. Mistrust of the Sunni Arabs runs deep (for a reason). Indeed, many Shias and Kurds would welcome a Sunni Arab revolt to provide an excuse to drive the remaining Sunni Arabs from Iraq and, in the case of the Kurds, perhaps provide an excuse to seek full independence since there would no longer be a multi-ethnic Iraq as a cushion against Shia domination and possible future oppression.

If what the Iraqi courts did was wrong, Sunni Arabs must pursue their claims within the system and in public opinion. And most important, they must get out and vote. This will prevent the Sunni Arabs from largely remaining outside looking in until the next election in four years, and will help convince their former victims that those Sunni Arabs remaining are not looking to stage a coup at the first opening and resume their centuries-long tradition of running the show and their decades-long run at serious neck stomping.

What will it be for the Sunni Arabs of Iraq? Stupidity and self-inflicted wounds or inclusion and a future within a rule-of-law Iraq? Do they really want to take the title of most self-destructive people in the Middle East from the Palestinians?

Into Marjah

The 15,000-strong force (About half Afghan, the article states, although I'm not sure if this means half the total or half of the force moving into Marjah proper, which would mean a quarter of the total. I suspect the latter.) has surrounded and moved into Marjah, a city (with the villages in the surrounding region) of 125,000 in Helmand province:

Thousands of U.S. Marines and Afghan soldiers stormed the Taliban stronghold of Marjah by air and ground Saturday, meeting only scattered resistance but facing a daunting thicket of bombs and booby traps that slowed the allied advance through the town.


The massive offensive was aimed at establishing Afghan government authority over the biggest southern town under militant control and breaking the Taliban grip over a wide area of their southern heartland.

Maj. Gen. Nick Carter, NATO commander of forces in southern Afghanistan, said Afghan and coalition troops, aided by 60 helicopters, made a "successful insertion" into Marjah in southern Helmand province. He said the operation was going "without a hitch."

Thousands of British, U.S. and Canadian troops also swept into Taliban areas to the north of Marjah, seeking to clear a wide swath of villages that had been under Taliban control for several years.

We think 400 to 1,000 Taliban could be in Marjah, including 100 foreign fighters, but so far direct combat has been fairly sparse, it seems. Mines and IEDs will slow us down but not stop us.
 
And if the enemy runs, we frankly want that for this operation since we want to quickly focus on restoring goverment services to win hearts and minds. These people have been under the Taliban for a long time and they need to be sure we will stay. And some will have made money under the Taliban. Some of course, will still love the Taliban.
 
And depriving the Taliban of the area will be a big hit in the wallet for the enemy if they can't run the drug trade that starts in the region's poppy fields.
 
In a perfect world, the enemy force will dissolve as fighters give up the fight or run to another region rather than being killed in messy, loud battles that risk killing innocent civilians. Some will want to fight and remain, and we'll have to hunt them and kill them. Hopefully without the collateral damage that Afghans are very sensitive about. And other Taliban will run to the sound of the guns. Hopefully we can hunt and kill them on the move before they arrive in the area.
 
This battle will rage--hopefully quietly--for many months, both in the field and in the hearts and minds of the people of the Marjah region.

The Wild Wild DOS

I've mentioned that cyber-organizations could get so powerful that they'd work for themselves rather than be simply hired guns for governments. I also noted that Russia is the likely source for such condostieri to emerge.

We've concluded that Russia is heavily penetrated and perhaps virtually taken over by crime organizations. Crime organizations that are heavily involved in cyber-crime and -espionage:

After two years of research, the U.S. intelligence community has formally concluded that the governments of Russia and other Eurasian states actively collaborate with organized crime groups. ...

U.S. analysts have concluded some Eurasian governments are now so intertwined with international organized crime groups that the two are almost synonymous — a situation they call “state capture,” i.e., the state has been captured by criminals.

U.S. analysts see Russia as the classic example of this phenomenon, where the leadership is thoroughly enmeshed in organized crime activity, and is probably profiting. In this context, organized crime also becomes an instrument of state power. ...

While Osama bin Laden may fantasize about “capturing” Afghanistan or Pakistan, organized crime groups may already be operating unfettered in the Kremlin.

And thanks largely to the spread of high technology to the underworld, it’s not hard to imagine a world where criminal groups are capable of destabilizing Western countries in ways that Al Qaeda can only dream about.

According to U.S. officials, there is ample evidence that Russian, Chinese and other organized crime groups are routinely penetrating our biggest banks and companies and making off with millions of dollars in electronic cash and billions in intellectual property.

Russia has exploited these non-state actors to make up for their loss of state power following the fall of the Soviet Union. It seems Russia will be the first to fall victim to them, as the condostieri become yet another generation of mercenaries to discover it is easier to take over the state than fight for them for pay when the state has no means to fight the mercenaries. China's government is too strong for the moment to be threatened by those they hire for cyber-warfare.

It is a strange old world we are returning to, it seems.

Ah, Signs of Sanity

I worried that we were going to let Russia bully us into retreating more on missile defense in eastern Europe as their price for signing a START treaty that Russia needs far more than we do (because they can't afford to maintain their existing arsenal and we can).

Our State Department says no:

The State Department said Thursday there will be no direct link between missile defenses and U.S. and Russian offensive strategic weapons cuts in the language of the nearly finished successor to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START.

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said the treaty and text of the final agreement are still being negotiated and reports that the U.S. side in the talks will link missile defenses to START are untrue.

Well, there is that weasel phrase "no direct link" to worry about. I hope there is no secret undestanding that we'll retreat on missile defense as long as it isn't in the START treaty to openly humiliate us.
 
We shall see. Signs of sanity are not proof of sanity.

Study the Problem to Death

We shall see if the protest movement in Iran can broaden its base from the Twittering Class to the working class that has suffered under Ahmadinejad's disastrous rule.

Reuel Marc Gerecht has thoughts on the situation. There must be hope of success for success to gain traction in the face of persistent Iranian suppression of dissent:

When regimes start to crack, the unthinkable becomes thinkable. Ayatollah Khamenei’s supporters could start to wonder whether their influence could survive in a more open political system. Iranian journalists are reporting that former guardsmen who’ve joined the opposition are signaling their one-time brothers that they could have a soft landing in a new order. However much the regime has worked to brainwash its security force (“the bulwark against disbelief”), if more Iranians are killed, rank-and-file guardsmen may suspend their belief and choose not to shoot.

It strikes me that think tanks, universities, NGOs, and labor unions should sponsor a conference on the subject of  how to integrate and rebuild Iranian social, economic, and governing institutions following the fall of the mullah regime. Let them write the plan for the "Phase IV" stage of what happens after the fall of the mullah dictatorship.

If Iran's people can see--and believe in--what is on the other side of the great bulwark that the regime tries mightily to keep standing, the Iranian people might move from Twittering the king to actually killing him--and find democracy and hope for a better future as their Shia brethren in Iraq are building.

Not Their Finest Hour

One thing that has annoyed me about the anti-Iraq War side has been their fetish to continue "debating" the decision to go to war. This debate continued long after our declaration of war and long after the war began--and long after the war has been won. ""Debating" the war for them means listening to their infantile chants until we wearily agree that the war was sinful and illegal.

So it is no shock that the anti-war side in Britain is in full-throated "debate" mode, calling even former Prime Minister Blair in to testify:

In London, something called “the Chilcot inquiry” has been investigating the process by which the country signed on to the Iraq invasion. For weeks, the usual bunch of shifty grandees have killed any potential awkward line of inquiry with the all-purpose brush-off, “You’ll have to ask Mr. Blair about that.” So finally they did, summoning the now reviled prime minister into the witness box to grill him on the “legality” of the Iraq invasion. Outside, protesters denounced “Bliar,” as his name is now universally spelled: “BLIAR LIED! THOUSANDS DIED!” Like a pedophile serial killer, he was smuggled into the building before dawn, lest the mob turn on him: “The People vs. Ex-Generalissimo Bliar”—or, at any rate, as near as his former comrades on the left seem likely to get to hauling him up before a war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

Give it up, people. We won. These people will still be waving their surrender flags for longer than die-hard Japanese soldiers held out in caves on Pacific islands after World War II. One can imagine their surprise when they finally emerge into the light to find their Lancet-induced visions of Mad Max-like Baghdad assaulted by an actual living and thriving city--perhaps with a Blair Blvd. where you drive under a giant "W" that replaced the crossed-scimitars that Saddam erected to honor the men who defeated the butcher Saddam.
 
But the loons won't give up their debate about launching the just and victorious war. Let me quote Mark Steyn's article at length here:
 

But, again, the legalistic obsession with the casus belli in Iraq is in marked contrast to Warmonger Bliar’s previous war. By the standards applied to Iraq, the Kosovo campaign was not only illegal, it was so illegal Blair and Clinton didn’t even bother to try to make it look legal. No attempt at UN resolutions there. They just cried “Bombs away!” and got on with it. And nobody minds.


Why? Because, for an advanced Western nation in the 21st century, war is only legitimate if you have no conceivable national interest in whatever war you’re waging. Kosovo meets that definition: no one remembers why we went in, who were the good guys, or what the hell the point of it was. Which is the point: the principal rationale was that there was no rationale. The Clinton/Blair argument boiled down to: the fact that we have no reason to get into it justifies our getting into it. Whereas Afghanistan and Iraq are morally dubious if not outright illegal precisely because Britain and America behaved as nation states acting in their national interest. And we’re not meant to do that anymore.

The cultural relativism of the dopier university campuses is to be applied globally.

That suits the enemy just fine. When he was facing a military commission, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed decided to cut to the chase and plead guilty: get those virgins ready, I’m on my way! When Obama scrapped the commissions and loosed KSM on the civilian justice system, the previously guilty man revised his plea to not guilty. So he’ll get a billion-dollar trial. And Tony Blair will be investigated to the end of his days. And don’t rule out one of those Khadr boys making it, if not to 24 Sussex, at least to the House of Commons.

The will to lose--long after we won in Iraq--remains strong on the Left. It makes it easy to see why our jihadi enemies assume God is on their side. Why wouldn't they believe that?
 
Truly, never in the field of human conflict have so many debated so long about so little.

Hurray for Hollywood!

Venezuela is on the road to economic ruin:

Venezuela slips further into chaos. Water, power and food shortages increase, and inflation is running at 25 percent a year. People publicly mock president Chavez, who uses his control of the legislature to pass more laws that will keep him in power. If Chavez will not allow himself to be voted out, he faces insurrection.

After years of American leftists like Danny Glover, Sean Penn, and other blazing intellects cheering on Hugo's lunatic economic policies and ambitions for dictatorship, should we not thank these people as unintentional useful idiots for us?

If Bush had tried to do to Venezuela what these Leftist actors have applauded as Hugo's brilliant socialist initiatives, Bush would be under indictment by some obscure Spanish or Belgian judge for war crimes.

A Russian Hat Trick

Taiwan is denying reports that it won't press us for submarines:

Taiwan on Tuesday dismissed a report saying the island has dropped a request for US submarines, saying the vessels and fighter jets remained on the island's arms procurement agenda.


"It is absolutely untrue," Taiwan's defence ministry spokesman Yu Sy-tue told AFP.

"We hope the United States will provide submarines and F-16 C/Ds Taiwan has requested in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act," the spokesman said.

Yu was reacting to a report which cited an unnamed military source as saying that the island was no longer asking for the submarines, because of rapidly improving ties between Taipei and Beijing.

Good. Taiwan needs subs (and fighter aircraft, for that matter). Their very existence would force the Chinese invasion fleet to be a little more cautious in the strait. That could buy time Taiwan will sorely need if China invades.
 
But if the rumor is that Taiwan will not ask us for subs in order to smooth US-chinese relations (which should not be an issue for us, but might be) and Taiwan still wants subs, how do you square those two facts?
 
How about Taiwan buying submarines from Russia?
 
Russia could use the business; could use the distraction for China; and would enjoy showing us up a bit by supplying what we are apparently unable to arrange (we don't build them and can't get anyone to build them for Taiwan).

Welcome to the Victory Parade

This is welcome news:

On Larry King Live last night, Vice President Joe Biden said Iraq "could be one of the great achievements of this administration. You're going to see 90,000 American troops come marching home by the end of the summer. You're going to see a stable government in Iraq that is actually moving toward a representative government."

Rather than mock the VP for this late recognition or begrudge him for embracing the victory in Iraq, I welcome recognition by the administration.

Because by stating we will have a great achievement in Iraq, the Obama administration owns the outcome. They can't walk away if there are problems we don't anticipate and just blame Bush. They'll have to intervene to maintain what they now say could be a great achievement. Besides, would it really be better if they continued to ignore victory?

Welcome to the victory parade.

The Dog That Did Not Bark

This article notes that Russia's military strategy envisions the early--if not preemptive--use of nukes to win a war--even a small war:

Russia’s new military doctrine, which is to come into force in 2010, has provoked a heated debate, first of all because it stipulates preemptive nuclear strikes.

Moreover, it says that nuclear weapons may also be used in local conflicts in case of critical threats to Russia’s national security.

 
It is funny that the article speaks of NATO and even Japan (!) as potential foes that might justify use of nukes by Russia, but one country is not mentioned at all despite the obvious implications of Russia's doctrine.
 
There is no mention of China.
 
Russia is not a global power. Russia is a major power that would have some weight if it was the size of Ukraine, but which is virtually defenseless given the fact that it spans two continents. Russia can hurt Georgia or sterilize the planet with nukes. Anything in between is pretty much out of their reach.
 
And the biggest "in between" that Russia must contemplate is the threat China poses to Russian control of the Far East. Get real, Russians. NATO is not threat to you and Japan is not a threat. I can understand why a weak Russia would not want to openly name China as the major conventional military threat, but I hope that in private you aren't so foolish as to believe a conflict over Latvia could lead to nuclear war with NATO.
 
The dog that did not bark can rip your leg off.