Friday, February 12, 2010

The Wild Wild DOS

I've mentioned that cyber-organizations could get so powerful that they'd work for themselves rather than be simply hired guns for governments. I also noted that Russia is the likely source for such condostieri to emerge.

We've concluded that Russia is heavily penetrated and perhaps virtually taken over by crime organizations. Crime organizations that are heavily involved in cyber-crime and -espionage:

After two years of research, the U.S. intelligence community has formally concluded that the governments of Russia and other Eurasian states actively collaborate with organized crime groups. ...

U.S. analysts have concluded some Eurasian governments are now so intertwined with international organized crime groups that the two are almost synonymous — a situation they call “state capture,” i.e., the state has been captured by criminals.

U.S. analysts see Russia as the classic example of this phenomenon, where the leadership is thoroughly enmeshed in organized crime activity, and is probably profiting. In this context, organized crime also becomes an instrument of state power. ...

While Osama bin Laden may fantasize about “capturing” Afghanistan or Pakistan, organized crime groups may already be operating unfettered in the Kremlin.

And thanks largely to the spread of high technology to the underworld, it’s not hard to imagine a world where criminal groups are capable of destabilizing Western countries in ways that Al Qaeda can only dream about.

According to U.S. officials, there is ample evidence that Russian, Chinese and other organized crime groups are routinely penetrating our biggest banks and companies and making off with millions of dollars in electronic cash and billions in intellectual property.

Russia has exploited these non-state actors to make up for their loss of state power following the fall of the Soviet Union. It seems Russia will be the first to fall victim to them, as the condostieri become yet another generation of mercenaries to discover it is easier to take over the state than fight for them for pay when the state has no means to fight the mercenaries. China's government is too strong for the moment to be threatened by those they hire for cyber-warfare.

It is a strange old world we are returning to, it seems.