Friday, February 05, 2010

Nothing Left to Lose?

Things are getting so bad in North Korea that the Chinese are warning Pyongyang that if they don't cut a deal with American, Japan, and South Korea that they'll be on their own.

And given that the Northerners have shot themselves in the foot with their botched currency "reform" (confiscation), being on their own will really mean being on their own:

The officials who backed and carried out the currency reform are being removed, one by one. There is no agreement on how to deal with the economic damage. The communist hard liners in the government wanted to rein in the growing private economy, and they did, only to discover how important that part of the economy was. While the security services say they have the unrest under control, the unofficial news coming out North Korea tells a different story, one of areas where the police fear to enter, and civilians who fearlessly attack secret police, and other security forces. It's not just the starving population that is pushing back, but members of the government. South Koreans and foreigners have been shocked of late, to hear North Korea government workers express contempt and disrespect for Kim Jong Il and other senior officials. Even Kim Jong Il has publically expressed regret over the poor diet of his people. Along with that disrespect comes a growing disregard for the recent orders to shut down public markets and stop using foreign currency. The government has been forced to backtrack on the markets and foreign currency. The people are ignoring their government up north, which is bad news for a police state.

The collapse of the North Korean government has been evident for a long time as the situation slowly deterioriated. At what point does the rate speed up so much that the collapse actually occurs "overnight" taking us by surprise? And will it be regime collapse or state collapse?

When the regime loses its ability to inspire fear in the population and compel their obedience, it is living on borrowed time.