Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The Water's Edge

It seems like just yesterday that the notion of China invading Taiwan was derided as "the million-man swim."

Today the Taiwanese don't seem to think the thought is quite so ludicrous, as the Taiwanese prepare for military maneuvers:

"Among the scenarios, we'll test what would happen if the enemy were to invade Taiwan and how we would seek to nip it in the bud," he said, on condition of anonymity.
Sure, Taiwanese defenses might savage the Chinese spearheads in the air and in the strait enough to cripple a Chinese attempt to launch a bolt from the blue offensive to seize Taepei.

But the Chinese might be able pull it off. And if not this year, perhaps the next. Even with Taiwan's recent purchases, it will take time for Taiwan to receive and integrate the weapons, meaning the balance in the strait will continue to shift toward China at least for a while.