Who Controls the Hormuz Strait?

Iran loudly claims to control the Hormuz Strait. Our media largely parrots that claim. In fact, Iran has no control and limited ability to interdict traffic. America has some control and the ability to interdict traffic.

I've been saying for quite some time in Weekend Data Dumps that official statistics of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz don't reflect the reality of American forces shepherding ships through Omani territorial waters with their beacons turned off ("dark transits"), making them invisible to those who count. And to the Iranians who want to shoot at them, of course.

Well:

An average of 8.6 million barrels of oil a day have been flowing through the Strait of Hormuz — more than previously reported, maritime analyst firm Kpler confirmed in a new update that matches estimates from the Trump administration.

Even I was unwilling to say it was that much. Just that some was getting out. And combined with increased pipeline and truck transport plus reduced demand, enough was getting out to get by. 

At some point when oil is delivered the statistics can be modified to show that a tanker had to transit the strait X days earlier.

Mind you, the pre-war  level was 21.6 million barrels per day. But in a couple years, pipelines might allow all the Arab states to fully bypass Hormuz.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Great White North and a Let's Do It Foreign Policy

I hope that Canada and the United States sort out our trade differences before they seriously affect our defense relationship. We need each other militarily and economically, but leaders can do stupid things. Lord knows I've seen how Canadians since 2016 have whipped themselves into anti-U.S. hysteria. 

This sums it up:

In broad terms, Canada’s relationship with the U.S. has two dimensions: economic and military. The U.S. is attempting to adjust the former but not the latter. The Trump administration is increasing economic pressure on Canada through tariffs, as it has with the rest of the world, which has naturally introduced tension into the relationship. At this point, the tension is reaching a point that it may affect the military dimension as well.

America has real trade grievances with Canada over how Canada tariffs American exports and allows other nations to bypass our tariffs. But the military dimensions of our relationship should keep the trade disputes from getting out of hand. 

We assume Canada knows we need each other so we can push hard. But I don't assume Canada will not do something really futile and stupid just to spite America--and damn the cost to Canada (which will be blamed on America, of course). I mean, by doing something more harmful than stoking Canadian anger at America to suppress secessionist movements in Quebec and Alberta.

Let's remember we are friends and allies, shall we?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Misses a Chance

 

It is false compassion to reduce the rate of your losses by refusing to energetically conduct a counteroffensive and suffer a higher casualty rate if you forfeit a chance to end a war quickly only to condemn your troops and civilians to a lower rate of casualties for years on end. Did Ukraine miss its chance to exploit Russian weakness in the first half of 2026?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: American Western Hemisphere Foreign Policy

In case you missed it on Substack: "Blood and Guts" Putin Seeks Glory

In case you missed it on Substack: Make the Gulf Arabian Again

In case you missed it on Substack: Competing Distractions in the Great PACOM Game

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Porcupines are Never Enough

So-called "porcupine" weapons will not save Taiwan when the PLA lands. And I'm not confident the Taiwanese people could sustain armed resistance in the face of occupation.

I'm not against Taiwan preparing to resist occupation, but it's probably futile. And I'm fully on board the critique of porcupine fixations:

If and when the People's Liberation Army breaches the outer defensive ring, establishes coastal lodgments, and imposes a total blockade, Taiwan's standoff systems will be rapidly expended, neutralized by precision bombardment, or starved of fuel and parts. Without an organized, decentralized civil-military underground ready to execute resistance operations, the island's defense will collapse into rapid paralysis. True deterrence by denial requires more than anti-ship missiles. It demands an island-wide resistance architecture grounded in Unconventional Warfare doctrine. 

Don't rely on a porcupine defense. It will kill you. 

I think Taiwan is divided enough politically over China that resistance could be brutally suppressed by China using cooperative locals who might see PLA occupation as an opportunity. And if the PLA is running a counter-insurgency campaign, how long will resistance last when they realize Force Design Marines aren't going to liberate them?

Not that resistance training and organization wouldn't be helpful. It would raise spirits during an invasion and bolster the will to win the conventional campaign. But the priority should be driving the PLA into the sea.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image--which is awesome--from the article. 

Cheap Drone Interceptors

Volume of attackers requires volume of defense.

 

Italy is looking at a cheaper anti-drone weapon:

The Italian Air Force is mulling the purchase of U.S. technology that turns cheap unguided missiles into precision weapons, offering a low-cost option for taking out drones instead of using pricy air-to-air missiles.

Those rockets are cheap and this allows more rockets to be carried than traditional air-to-air missiles. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article. 

China's New Type 004 Super Carrier

China is building a new super carrier, this time with nuclear power. I strongly suspect these carriers are built for global power projection during peacetime rather than for war with America. Still, capabilities evolve slowly. Intent can change overnight.

China is building a new carrier design:

A new Chinese aircraft carrier, commonly referred to as the Type 004, is continuing to take shape, notably now featuring a more complete bow. This is set to be China’s fourth carrier, and there is strong evidence it will be its first nuclear-powered type, bringing an even more significant boost to the country’s naval power projection capabilities.

The ship will likely have an air wing with expanded capabilities that the Chinese are working on.

Given the string of American and allies anti-access/area denial weapons being deployed along the First Island Chain, China's surface ships will be under threat when in home port and trying to sail into battle.

So I have to ask if China's investment in carriers is for prestige and peacetime missions to defend its global economic interests:

Years ago I said I almost felt sorry for China pursuing aircraft carriers given carrier vulnerability. I thought their first weak carriers would serve best as a distraction for the U.S. Navy as the PLA conquered Taiwan.

Since China has been accelerating its global trade network, I've wondered if China's aircraft carriers were really meant for peacetime power projection rather than sea control in a contest with the United States and its allies.

Heck, the fleet might be an expensive bauble to bolster the image of the Chinese Communist Party's power.

I still wonder about all of that.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

Drones Can Be Used For Tasks Other Systems Once Did

I'm not saying new ways of doing things isn't important. But it does mean drones aren't doing unprecedented things. 

Interesting use of UAVs:

Drones have come to define the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, with both sides fielding diverse and increasingly advanced systems. However, the true advantage in this domain does not come from technology alone, but from developing new employment methods that provide a tactical edge to their respective warfighters. Recent Ukrainian reports indicate that Russian forces have adopted a new drone tactic to help control roads leading into contested urban areas. The tactic involves landing drones near key routes to monitor the acoustic signatures of passing vehicles. When a potential military vehicle is detected, the operator can use the drone itself to strike the vehicle or engage it with artillery or another strike drone. 

Drones basically do old missions with new means.

Which means the drones can be stopped, notwithstanding their newness, with updated countermeasures.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

China's Grip On Western Hemisphere Transportation

The campaign to reduce Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere will need to be waged a long time.

China fights back against losing control: 

Panama is one battle in a much larger contest over who will shape the Western Hemisphere. For more than two decades, China expanded its reach by financing, building, and operating ports, railways, electrical grids, telecommunications systems, logistics hubs, and energy projects across Latin America. Those investments created influence that extends well beyond commerce.

But Washington has begun pushing back. The dispute in Panama offers an early look at how difficult it may be to reverse two decades of Chinese infrastructure expansion.

It would have been better to have started pushing back decades ago. Worse to have delayed decades more.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Reflects That But For the Grace of God Go I

 

Russia’s insistence that it must restore the Soviet empire that it lost in 1991 even as Russia’s ground forces bleed out trying to “return” Ukraine to Mother Russia’s loving embrace isn’t exactly a recruiting ad for the empire. Other former republics of the Soviet Union know that Russia has territorial ambitions yet lacks the power to enforce that. Other ex-Soviet states may decide they need to act during this gap between ambitions and power before the gap closes on them.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Highway to Hell For Somebody

In case you missed it on Substack: "Agile" Isn't the Panacea the Army Thinks It Is

In case you missed it on Substack: AI-Driven Drones Will Face AI-Aimed Anti-Aircraft Guns

In case you missed it on Substack: Japan's Defense Role

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Taiwan's Frankenstein Tanks

Yes, yes, that would be Frankenstein's Monster Tanks. But this isn't a literature blog. So Taiwan has Frankenstein tanks. 

Taiwan’s Brave Tiger tanks are made from M-60 hulls, M-48-derived turrets, and M-1 fire controls:

Taiwanese forces had these aging armored vehicles sitting in fortified tank bunkers, covered in camouflage netting against a backdrop of trees. The Brave Tiger's main gun, with a direct-fire range of about 1.25 miles, can easily cover the span of the Tamsui, allowing it to ambush or ward off incoming Chinese landing craft or amphibious vessels.

They are used in bunkers to make up for lack of modern passive armor. 

Still, mobility is what makes a tank a tank and not just a bunker. I hope they can shift positions when needed.

And speaking of the Tamsui.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

If Everyone Flies Drones, Who Does Infantry Stuff?

Marines in the Pacific are pushing drone operators down into fireteams. So much for every Marine a rifleman.

I'm just not happy with drones within a squad:

“Equipping our Marines with FPV attack drones give[s] us a useful tool that provides an additional kinetic option for us to use,” said 1st Lt. Evan Brace, a company executive officer with 3rd LAR, in the release. “This capability allows units down to the fireteam level to possess organic, precise fires capable of shaping their battlespace.”

I expressed my opinion when the Army was looking for where to put drones. In a weapons platoon at the company level seems like the lowest level small drones should be. Detach teams down to platoons or squads as needed. But establishing drones as an organic part of the tip of the close combat spear just risks making every "infantry" platoon a mini-air force shaping the battlefield rather than engaging in close combat to take and hold ground.  

A mini-air force the infantry has to carry on their backs. But get back to me when small drones are no bigger than a grenade on a soldier's webbing.

Of course, this news is from 3rd Marine Division, which converted much of itself to support to Marine Littoral Regiments. So perhaps that doesn't hurt their already limited ground combat capabilities.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Great and Powerful Xi!

Xi can click his heels and chant "There's no place like the China Dream" all day long. But reality is not bound by his decrees.

Problems become more apparent: 

No matter how much Xi Jinping promotes "positive energy" – his catchphrase for relentless optimism – the chickens of CCP economic policy have come home to roost.

America's GDP is significantly higher than China's and dramatically higher per capita. Honestly, I have doubts that we should use PPP to exaggerate China's GDP as a measure of broad global economic power. Yes, it is useful for things like comparing military expenditures where Western countries have higher personnel costs. But is PPP fully relevant on the global stage?

As China's rise slows, we should speak about China’s fate as if it is a continent and not a country.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Yes, I know I am mixing characters from the movie.

Stealth is No Longer a U.S. Monopoly

The Air Force needs to train for enemy stealth aircraft as well as drones, as times change the threats.

Every technology edge ends: 

The U.S. Air Force wants target drones that can mimic the performance of a variety of aircraft, from stealth fighters and heavy bombers to large and small drones.

Fortunately, operating stealth planes is about more than reduced signatures. If we train better we do stealth better.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: QF-16 drone photo from the article. 

When Do We Establish POLARCOM?

Surviving in the Arctic--let alone fighting there and winning--has unique skill and equipment requirements. If our enemies are going there, we need to win there. United States Polar Command (POLARCOM) would be a useful tool to master the varied conditions in that region and work with allies.

Indeed: 

The Arctic is no longer a frozen backwater. It is the emerging front line of great-power competition, where geography, resources, nuclear strategy, hypersonic strike, undersea warfare, and dual-use infrastructure converge. Russia has spent more than a decade militarizing its northern approaches while thinning selected defenses to sustain the Ukraine war. China has layered dual-use research stations across the High North. The United States, until recently, treated the region as an afterthought. President Trump’s insistence that Greenland must be brought more firmly under American strategic control is not real-estate whimsy. It is cold-eyed, strategic realism about the shortest polar routes, early-warning sensors, undersea approaches, and the ability to deny adversaries sanctuary in the far north.

I’ve long wanted POLARCOM.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Marine Corps photo from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks Victory Through Air Power

 

Can Ukraine wage offensive ground war? Is Putin willing to risk internal division to wage offensive ground war by mobilizing more troops? If the answers are “no”, do both sides believe bombarding the enemy homelands is the only affordable path to victory? I just don’t think the war’s outcome can be decided without ground forces getting the decisive votes.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: America is Not Leaving a Vacuum in Eurasia

In case you missed it on Substack: More Than One Way to Skin a Tiger

In case you missed it on Substack: The CENTCOM Mission Remains the Same

In case you missed it on Substack: Marine Corps Ground Combat Element 2040

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Squeezing Iran

When the United States and Israel struck Iran earlier this year, I assumed we wanted a short military campaign. We either spark and enable an internal revolt against the mullah regime that ends the 47-year war; or we settle for a punitive campaign that hammers Iran's military, nuclear infrastructure, and industry. Just one campaign in a war that goes on. We did not get a revolt. And we held back from really hammering Iran broadly. And this is not brief. Now we blockade and squeeze a weakened Iran financially to pressure it into agreeing to terms we find acceptable.

This claim by the author is ridiculous after Trump eased off on declaring victory over Iran:

“We are low keying it,” [Trump] told Axios in an interview Sunday, describing an approach built on economic pressure rather than new strikes. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” Asked about the standoff, he added: “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.”

That is not a fifth declaration of victory. It is something more evasive: a retreat from measurable claims to an open-ended assertion that patience will eventually work — a proposition that cannot be disproved on any timetable the White House has identified. 

This is all just a demand for a perfect plan that can be judged on the plan's timetable. War isn't like that. The enemy gets a vote, and all that. America wanted to liberate France in 1943. We (America, Britain, and Canada, mainly) landed in 1944. 

The Armistice of November 11, 1918 didn't formally end World War I. It took a British blockade to finally break the German resistance to admitting defeat. That's what we are doing. We've started to blockade Vienna. So let's blockade Vienna.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from The Australian.

When the Moon Hits Your Sky Like an Eyepiece to Spy, that's PLA

The American-Chinese rivalry over the Moon is focused on the south pole. America walked away from the moon. I hope our experience of walking and driving (cars and golf balls) on the Moon half a century ago is still useful to win this space race.

The race is on for the Moon's south pole:

The region is already the linchpin for US and Chinese ambitions because scientists believe it to be home to water ice. This crucial in-space resource can be converted into rocket fuel, breathable air or drinking water — all vital to sustaining an extraterrestrial settlement.

Both the United States and China plan to send robotic explorers to the south pole later this year, paving the way for human explorers to follow close behind. 

America and its partners had best win this race. I'm not eager for an unblinking Red Moon peering down at us. I do have confidence that our private sector main effort will ultimately prevail over China's Five-Year Moon Plans. 

There will inevitably be a military component (and don't forget SMOD!). Make sure China's People's Liberation Army can't draw a dashed line around the Moon as its "historical" territory.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from Arches National Park by Elliot McGucken. Whew. Took me a while to remember where I tucked that credit away for when I needed it.