Pay No Attention to the Expensive ISR Behind the Curtain!

NATO Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets are the real unsung heroes diplomatically hidden behind the curtain as the flashy Ukrainian Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) are pushed on the stage to receive the applause.

Oh? 

The U.S. Navy is seeking to adopt useful lessons from the Ukrainian experience using naval drones to defeat the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine had only surface-to-ship missiles when the war started, but eventually shifted to three new naval drones, Sea Baby, Mother, and MAGURA, or Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus.

In the absence of ships or aircraft able to operate far from Ukraine's shores, the naval drones (USVs) did give Ukraine the range their shore-based missiles lacked. But the lesson isn't the naval drones. They are just the object of Torpedo Boat Craze 2.0. NATO states have the assets to achieve range. The lesson is the expensive NATO surveillance and targeting assets that aimed the drones. 

I say my ASuROC suggestion based on ASROC giving anti-submarine torpedoes more range would be superior to most of the USVs:

There was a time when torpedoes were commonly carried by planes to drop the short-range weapons close to ships, risking planes and pilots to get the dumb torpedoes too close to easily evade.

As time has passed I really think my [ASuROC] idea has promise. Especially as surface suicide drone mania rages. Why drive your surface drone at slow speeds to the distant target when you could use a robotic craft to rapidly fly a robot-driven torpedo that remains submerged as it heads for its target?

The Navy needs to learn the lessons from the reality and not the mythology.

UPDATE: Keep in mind that the Ukrainians almost certainly had foreign help with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance for their spectacular special forces aerial drone attack on Russia's strategic aircraft deep inside Russia. Google Earth won't cut it for something like this.   

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I grabbed the ancient Wizard of Oz image from the InterTubes.

The Charge of the Bike Brigade

Russian motorcycle attacks should be suicidal. Why aren't they?

How weak are Ukraine's front line infantry, obstacles and minefields, and on-call fires for Russia to be able to charge Ukrainian lines with friggin' motorcycles?

Russian forces are currently mainly using tanks as fire support for infantry assaults and are mainly using armored vehicles to transport infantry in near rear and frontline areas, but not to conduct penetrations of the Ukrainian defensive line.

Russia's increased use of motorcycles is an adaptation in response to pervasive Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian armored vehicles and the unsustainable armored vehicle losses that Russian forces suffered in late 2023 and 2024. Trehubov noted on May 4 that motorcycle assaults are a "standard tactic" of the Russian military now due to Russia's ongoing shortage of heavy equipment and armored vehicles. Trehubov stated that Russian motorcycle assaults are more effective because Russian forces can advance quickly and better evade Ukrainian drone operators and force Ukrainian drone operators to expend more drones to counter motorcycle assaults. Trehubov noted that Ukrainian forces typically expend one drone per Russian motorcycle – a comparatively smaller and less valuable target, given that Ukrainian forces can also use first-person view (FPV) drones to disable Russian tanks and armored vehicles.

Motorcycle speed helps them evade FPV drones.

I get why speed and dispersal of infantry complicates the ability of Ukrainian FPV suicide drones to kill the attackers before the Russians can close with the Ukrainian defenders and get under cover.

But motorcycles cope with one threat--the FPV drones. I just don't understand why minefields, obstacles, and area artillery fire--let alone direct machine gun fire--don't stop that tactic in its tracks.

This tactic should be target practice. It's stuff like this that makes me wary of drawing broader conclusions from this war. I mean, the Ukrainians have followed suit with motorcycles--although not with the charges, to be fair.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing, which really didn't follow my directions.

A Real If Boring Resupply Method

I'm not against improving an old system with bells and whistles. But keep that down to a dull roar, eh?

The Air Force has a new resupply method:

The Air Force has added new self-guided gliders to deliver cargo to “high-risk environments” without putting a manned aircraft in danger....

Grasshopper can carry up to 500 pounds of supplies and be launched from cargo aircraft like the C-17 and C-130 using rear ramp airdrops. It can reach speeds of 109 miles per hour and glide “tens of miles” based on drop altitude, the spokesperson said.

A precision parachute glider method was used in Afghanistan for remote outposts. I'm not sure why that simpler and cheaper method isn't still useful. But I concede that some scenarios will need a more sophisticated means of resupply. So I'm not really complaining.

Sure, this still isn't as exciting as intercontinental supply rockets. But on that path lies (expensive) madness.

Rely on the more dull stuff that works.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Image from the initial article.

Pivoting Hard Into Pearl Harbor

I keep saying that "pivoting" to the Pacific shouldn't mean cramming more first-line assets into insufficiently protected bases within reach of China's arsenal of weapons.

This is a problem, right?

United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) currently has critical assets such as runways, naval fleets, and fixed-wing aircraft such as the F-35 stationed near the PLA’s missiles, which could be targeted in the event the latter decides to conduct armed operations against Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, or the Philippines.  

But no, every day I read how America must withdraw every military asset from the Middle East and Europe in order to cram them into those air bases and ports in order to face the "real" threat to America--China.

But that "real" threat is a potent threat rather than being a talking point to justify walking away from ongoing threats. Really. So don't conveniently mass our forces within easy reach of China's missiles and aircraft so it can launch a theater-wide Pearl Harbor. Worse, packing our best assets into those bases will actually tempt China to strike first while they have the opportunity. 

Other than our nuclear-powered submarines on patrol, I really just want tripwire forces in the western Pacific. And bases that are well defended and equipped with repair capabilities in order to receive reinforcements from deeper into the Pacific, the continental United States, and other parts of the world.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Photo from the U.S. Navy.

Just Give the Infantry a Damn Tank!

With the M10 Booker light tank mobile protected firepower vehicle gone, The Army may yet turn its attention to the M1 Abrams. 

I disagree with the idea that after the cancellation of the M10 Booker that infantry still needs a light tank for protected, direct-fire support:

The demise of the M10 Booker spares the U.S. Army from a project that lost sight of its purpose. Instead of a light tank to provide mobile fire support for the infantry, the Army ended up with a vehicle that weighed as much as some main battle tanks.  

Any armored vehicle ties infantry to roads and a bigger logistics tail. Light tanks are just Future Burned-Out Hulks. Perhaps cheapness should be high priority. If so, be prepared to lose lots of them.

If not, just give infantry brigades some heavy tanks when needed, as I argued years ago in Army magazine. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Sure, that's a Marine tank. But the Marines got rid of their tanks.

The Winter War of 2022: Crimea Today, Tomorrow the World!

I'm just not seeing the advantage over America a weak Russia gets from controlling Crimea.

The war goes on. Time is running out for either side to significantly change the front line that will define the suspension of active hostilities. What hopes Ukraine had for recapturing Crimea collapsed in the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive. I'm not particularly worried about that Russian conquest strengthening Russia.

I understand Ukraine wanting Crimea back. But letting Russia keep Crimea will absolutely not cut America off from Eurasia: 

The Crimean peninsula—like a crown—sits atop the Black Sea exercising control over its length and breadth. A Kremlin Crimea renders the Black Sea a virtual Russian lake, awarding Vladimir Putin sway across the entire Ukrainian coast past Odessa to the Danube Delta as well as Moldova and Romania.

And with only four not-insignificant leaps in control building on the earlier leap, Russia and China gain a tremendous advantage over America in Central Asia which leads to disaster for America in Europe.

This is a late April Fool's Day joke, right? Contrary to the author's assertion about what controlling Crimea gives the Russians, Russia doesn't control the Black Sea. Even when Ukraine is doing the shooting with MacGuyvered weapons.

But imagine what NATO could do. So if real peace requires selling Crimea to Russia for a tidy sum drawn largely from Russian frozen assets--which nobody will call Russian reparations to Ukraine out of politeness, naturally--the West could ride that out. So could Ukraine with the proper weapons.

Breathe, people. 

UPDATE (Sunday): Ukraine apparently hit two distant Russian air bases housing bombers and rare support planes using shipping containers housing lots of FPV drones smuggled deep into Russia. The kill count is unclear. Ukraine claims to have knocked out 40 planes. Wow.

I've noted air base vulnerability. 

UPDATE (Sunday): So four Russian bases were apparently attacked. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Change Your Armor! Don't Take It Off!

In case you missed it on Substack: Can Europe Form a New Defense Architecture?

In case you missed it on Substack: Can Pain Deter China From Invading Taiwan?

In case you missed it on Substack: Transforming the Army 'in Contact

DARPA builds a small robot version of my Modularized Auxiliary Cruiser proposal. 

Navy ships wouldn't have enough crew even if recruiting enough sailors wasn't a problem.

A British nuclear-powered attack submarine has loaded Tomahawk cruise missiles while in Gibraltar. This is routine, they say. Nothing to do with Iran, I'm sure. 

The Army stopped its plans for new brigade-level aerial drones.

China's dangerous Long March through the imposed green energy revolution. 

There was dangerous panic that the people might speak in the Romanian election (damn them). The approved candidate handily won. Well, an election if you dim the lights and wear sunglasses. I didn't like the disapproved candidate. But how will the rules be warped the next time? Vance had a point, eh?

Despite the banner of a "single market", "the EU’s internal trade barriers are actually higher than the ones Donald Trump has just imposed on Europe and the rest of the world." I have been wrong to say the EU should go "back" to being a free-trade area. Britain will not be stronger in this Europe.

Has India escalated its military means in fighting Pakistan's terror campaign by using air and missile power? To me it seems that relying on this means rather than ground power is a de-escalation.

Should Australia build a SSN shipyard capable of servicing American SSNs, too,  to tie America more closely to Australia's defense? The issue for Australia is always being lunge worthy.

The U.S. deployed four F-15s to Diego Garcia in light of Iranian threats to strike the base. 

Did the British government align with the EU to kill Brexit? Sadly, I was right to worry about the power of 10,000 EU cheese regulations. Did Starmer surrender to a waning EU? Will enough people (tip to Instapundit) resist this submission?

A three-step solution to rebuilding the Marine Corps. 

China is building a long-range UAV mothership that can carry over 100 suicide drones. It sounds like the B-52 of drone carriers. I wonder how many SDBs the F-52 could carry?

Mission accomplished! Which is a sedative so the host forgets it is dying. 

The Navy briefed industry on its needs for USVs armed with containerized weapons. The aim is for payload space for two standard containers that plug into a vessel less than 200 ft. long and under 500 tons.

A transformed American armored brigade went through its paces at the combat training center in Germany. 

When everybody is special, nobody is. Be careful out there. This is dangerous regardless of which party promotes it. The stars can't shine without a cast of thousands backing them up. An the stars could burn out.

Russia put an automatic shotgun on its propeller-driven Yak-52 primary training aircraft for anti-drone work.

Why people insist America lost the Iraq War is beyond me: "Most Iraqis want some Americans to stay, more economic activity with Arab neighbors and an end to Iranian meddling in Iraq." To be fair, Phase IX is still in doubt.

Despite a low birth rate, Poland is arming up and expanding its army, especially territorial defense forces. Also, American bases.

American military and civilian security agency recruiting is skyrocketing. Tip to Instapundit.

A combination torpedo/underwater drone.

Woke Point. I think the service academies should only teach military history and engineering. 

Golden Dome in three years? Clearly a thin initial shield mostly against small numbers of incoming ballistic or cruise missiles.

Detecting drones and distinguishing between friendly and enemy is nice. Shooting down what is detected would be awesome. 

Would the Air Force buy new F-16s to maintain numbers?

Quasi-war between Russia and Estonia in the Baltic Sea.

I fear Syria's HTS rulers would recruit prisoners if they took over guarding jihadi prisoners held by our SDF allies in eastern Syria. 

Good! "For the first time since 1945, the Royal Canadian Navy is undergoing a major expansion. This begins with the construction of fifteen 8,000-ton River Class destroyers." 

Is Israel's new counter-drone system that disables or takes over drones with radio signals in effect an area bubble defense that reduces the need for missiles, rockets, or guns to shoot down drones?

There are certainly reason why America and its allies should defend Taiwan. But the foundation of our intervention is the willingness of Taiwanese to arm up, fight, and die to resist China. 

I've long argued this reality: "NATO remains superior in numbers and technology to Russia on paper. However, it lacks the operational integration, logistics, and joint force capabilities needed to quickly counter Russian mass and tempo near its borders." America provides what other NATO states lack.

Good article questioning assumptions. Yeah, I've never assumed war with China would be short and glorious/bloody. I've also assumed a long war requires cheaper weapons to mass produce. Shermans--not King Tigers.

Does India have enough conventional superiority over Pakistan to pound it in retaliation for Pakistani terror attacks? Or will Pakistan believe Chinese backing lets Pakistan punch above its weight class?

I get worried when the "tame" Islamists of Erdogan's Turkey have a really good week. 

Casualties don't matter to Putin? They should. Is he really worried? He should be. You never can tell how the cogs will feel about being cogs.

China's dangerous "watermelon" export.  

A Putin advisor sets up territorial ambitions "the Supreme Soviets of the Union Republics did not have the legal authority to ratify the December 1991 Belovezha Accords, the internationally recognized document in which the Soviet republics of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union."

Russian--and now Ukrainian--motorcycle units are a speed adaptation to drones. But if there was adequate infantry on the front line with mines and obstacles, this would be a suicidal Charge of the Bike Brigade.

Russia still occupies its main Syria air base and somebody attacked it.

Avenger fire and ice tests.

A call to restore REFORGER to defend Europe. Way ahead of you, admiral. 

Russia beats its chest and flings nuclear poo with nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles. Those are relics of pre-precision days. [yawn] What's the point?

Despite recent questions about testing, the new Army XM7 rifle advanced to being the M7. 

Golden Nome? "Work will start this summer on a Pentagon “mega-project” in Alaska intended to boost the Air Force’s training capability to defend North America."

I did say that broad sweeps for DEI material would be followed by restoration of most after review. Breathe, people. 

Well, an LCS makes it a more fair fight ... .

I hope the British haven't screwed us: "A deal that would see the UK hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius can go ahead, the High Court has said, after lifting a temporary block on the agreement." You may recall the place.

Germany is spending to rearm. But: "The Bundeswehr is short a quarter of the personnel it needs to operate all these weapons." But ignore the part about America ending its defense commitment to NATO.

Wokeness isn't deterring recruits, but  young people still suffer from being "overweight, poorly educated, had criminal records or other problems that barred them from military service."

It was once "racist" to call Covid-19 the "China Virus." Now it is common knowledge. 

If Ireland is America's friend on the tech industry in Europe, you must admit the European Union is our enemy.

"Oopsy" isn't going to cut it. This will be a fatal for everyone deemed responsible. 

Sounds like a "mission accomplished" moment--and not the fake one put on Bush 43 in the Iraq War.

The Navy will decommission the Sixth Fleet command ship. Which for a long time was basically the entire fleet.

I remain highly--as in almost completely--skeptical that Syria is ruled by kinder and gentler jihadis.  

World leaders have a new dread that stalks them--an Oval Office smackdown by Trump. Makes Conquest, War, Famine, and Death child's play problems, eh? Still, it's nice that the media insists on a strict definition of "genocide" now. Gosh, I'm an optimist!

The Philippines is arming up and has a missile frigate now. All is proceeding as I foretold. 

France's new carrier air wing will include drones.

CRS report to Congress on Russia's nuclear arsenal. No mention about how many actually work.

China's coast guard outclasses America's post-Cold War de-fanged Coast Guard.

Iran stokes mayhem via non-Persian actors: "Currently Iran has about two dozen of these proxies throughout the Middle East." Targets have noticed and reacted. But Iran's cannon fodder still dies for Iran.

We keep getting told that right wing domestic terrorism is about to explode; but all we get is the usual left-wing domestic terrorists. Tip to Instapundit. Stochastic terrorism? OUT! And as always, IN! Focus on the potential backlash and never on the bloody lash.

A call for the European Union to weaken Russia's power to threaten Europe. America must remain in NATO to undermine the So another mission for the EU plan to strip away the pesky prefix of their proto-imperial entity. 

Easiest. Prediction. Ever.

Has China's "gray zone" subliminal offensive in the South China Sea peaked because targets are making themselves hard targets?

Israel will try to eradicate Hamas (and satellite jihadis) by holding ground in Gaza rather than relying on air and ground raids. 

I wouldn't say American military reliance on contractors couldn't be done at a lower price. But support contractors can be added or subtracted more quickly. And contractors paid more while working aren't a long-term cost for the VA or retirement benefits as a military personnel can be.

The Marines still want old-fashioned landing ships able to unload on beaches within range of Chinese missiles and planes in order to move and sustain its Marine Littoral Regiment detachments. FFS.

The Army's planned MV-75 tilt-rotor craft designed for 101st Airborne Division deep air assaults is under scrutiny. Somebody needs to save the Screaming Eagles from themselves.

Every time a Russian official speaks, my support for a nuclear first strike inches up: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded that any future peace agreement in Ukraine include conditions to prevent the election and establishment of future pro-Western governments in Ukraine." Figurately.

At least a half dozen so far: "Since late 2024 a growing number of Russian ships in the Black and Baltic Seas have been damaged by limpet mines placed on the hulls of Russian oil tankers." I mentioned one of these in the May 11th data dump, and noted a Cold War precedent.

Seeking bases America can use: "In January Filipino security forces arrested about a dozen Chinese and Filipino citizens and charged them all with spying for China." 

As a general guide, okay: "Vice President JD Vance told military academy graduates Friday that President Donald Trump is working to ensure that U.S. armed forces are only sent into harm’s way with clear goals rather than the 'undefined missions' and 'open-ended conflicts' of the past." Gird yourself for exceptions.

If we could do this to enemy military academies I'd call it an amazing success. 

Tensions are rising in the Arctic. POLARCOM, anyone? Recall that China proclaims itself a "near-Arctic" power. America should declare itself a "near-Tibet" power.

Is America's steel industry on the way to recovery? 

Hmmm: "What proves that Nato is no longer a genuine military alliance was that nothing was done in the last pre-war days before Putin’s invasion finally began." Ukraine isn't in NATO. An alliance should jump in to fight for a non-member? That isn't even automatic for a NATO member!

Lost in Space. 

Russia: Crime, bitter veterans, criminals with combat experience, besieged police quitting . What could possibly go wrong?

Keep the Bases!

While I won't see every base in Europe should be kept, losing one is permanent. So choose carefully.

American bases in Europe are a national asset:

The United States operates a vast network of military installations across Europe, serving as a crucial foundation for NATO operations, regional deterrence, and global power projection. This is now under review by the US administration. 

On April 8, General Christopher Cavoli, Commander of US European Command (EUCOM), told a Congressional committee that Europe is “the first line of defense of our homeland.” ...

The Pentagon says it’s currently taking “a hard look” at where forces are stationed. ...

As of early 2025, there were roughly 84,000 US service members across the United States European Command (EUCOM) area of responsibility, including troops deployed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

Yes, Europe is America's first line of defense for the east coast.

In addition to being a shield, those bases represent a sword for reaching enemies around Europe. 

Of course, I have a bias for keeping the bases that go back a long time, as I advocated in Military Review (see pages 15-20).

UPDATE: While working on an essay I ran across this statement from President Truman in September 1945:

The future foreign interest of the United States will be in the Western Hemisphere and in the Pacific.

Explain that to the Fulda Gap defenders.

Let's not--again--be hasty in writing off the importance of Europe. [From LaFeber, America, Russia, and the Cold War, p. 30]

 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Map from the initial article.

Walk and Chew Gum at the Same Time

America is a global super power and not a regional power with limited horizons. Efforts around the globe are made on a sliding scale of effort and not governed by on/off switches.

The Army's top officer in the Pacific is alarmed by China's rapid military capability expansion. Others make a dangerous if true statement about the situation:

Critics say the U.S. has been slow to respond to the shift, bogged down by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Its shipyards are already struggling to keep up and its defense industrial base can’t sustain a protracted fight.

It is true that America is fighting in the Middle East. It is true that America is supporting a fight in Ukraine. It is true that American shipbuilding is inadequate. It is true America's defense-industrial base can't sustain a long war. But claiming those realities have slowed America's ability to face China is either wrong or misleading. 

American military strength in CENTCOM and EUCOM has been slashed since the War on Terror wound down and since victory in the Cold War, respectively. There are limited bases in the western Pacific to handle an influx of American forces--and it isn't wise to fill them up within easy reach of China's growing missile arsenal.

American shipyard shortages and insufficient defense-industrial base capacity were not caused by the need to pay attention to the Middle East and Europe with limited assets. Indeed, they've provided real world incentive to fix both deficincies as we've coped with Iran attacking Israel directly and via proxies; and Russia invading Ukraine. America's long pivot to INDOPACOM didn't inspire us to fix those problems given the merely theoretical if obvious problems America faces to defeat the pacing threat of China. 

And if America lets the situation in EUCOM and CENTCOM deteriorate, America won't be able to treat them as economy-of-force fronts to focus on China.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I grabbed the map from some .mil page.

The Army in the Pacific Could Use More Than One Lesson From World War II

The Army spends time thinking about large-scale combat operations in Europe where a several million Baltic States people need protection. But can't imagine similar operations in the Pacific in locations where many tens of millions live.

These authors urge Army and I Corps preparations for fighting in the Pacific: 

The United States and its allies were surprised in the Pacific during World War II because the attention was on Europe. We cannot make that mistake again. Operational readiness in the Pacific mandates a forward-looking and adaptive approach rooted in historical insights.

While the Army is paying attention to the Pacific now, so far the Army seems to be making a different mistake, believing--as I addressed in Military Review--large-scale combat operations won't be the mission in the Pacific.

This failure to appreciate the Army's core competency remains true despite historical insights that could be drawn from battlefields like Guadalcanal--or the very Philippines "return" campaign the authors lead with.

While victory in the Pacific may come from the sea, it will be achieved on the land.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Photo of Army operations in the Philippines from https://www.nationalww2museum.org/sites/default/files/styles/wide_medium/public/2020-08/CG5%20-%20Edward%20Lengel.jpg.

America Needs Soldiers and Not Warriors

I have been guilty of using the term "warrior" for our troops properly focused on fighting rather than distractions. But even when you advocate for a "warrior" mindset don't become confused and get literal about this rather than wanting well-trained and -equipped soldiers.

Troops can get led astray in their mindset when leadership has substitutes for victory. So I like the efforts to purge such politicized cabinet meeting flag officers and general officers (FOGOS) in favor of having senior generals and admirals focused on winning on the battlefield.

But don't get confused and think we want or need actual warriors:

I really hate it when I see our military calling its service members "warriors". My understanding is that troops are superior to warriors because troops operate as a coherent fighting machine in contrast to warriors who fight as individuals--no matter how good a fighter each warrior might be. I want troops.

There are consequences when our soldiers--especially our officers--forget they are soldiers. They become confused that they are civilians in uniform free to exercise the rights they protect for civilians. This means that being a soldier is no longer their highest priority.

They are not soldiers. Maybe they are warriors for whatever political tribe they have joined. But they are not soldiers. And a military rots from the FOGOs down.

Mind you, I was a REMF. A reservist REMF. So I'm not pretending that I'm a snake-eater. I was no warrior. I hope I was a good soldier. But my point is still correct.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Baltic Sea is Vital for NATO Defense in the East

As long as Ukraine holds out against Russian military and covert attacks, the Baltic region is NATO's main front.

This Swedish admiral writes:

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a wake-up call for states in the Baltic Sea region. It overturned threat perceptions among state leaders who had underestimated the strategic situation and rearranged the region’s political composition, with military strategic relevance.  

This included Sweden and Finland joining the alliance in reaction to Russian aggression.

The author (naturally) focuses on the naval aspect. I don't think Russian covert aggression, overt harassment, or limited anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) weapons negate the fact that the Baltic Sea is a figurative NATO lake. But NATO can't take it for granted and must control it quickly in a war lest Russia make ground gains that NATO can't roll back on NATO's main front.

Yes, Russia is waging a subliminal war on NATO. And at the high end, it could be quite severe as I also wrote about in Army magazine.

If it goes to open warfare, it is possible that Russia could plow forward through NATO's improving but still small ground force defenses--perhaps controlling the Suwalki Gap on the Poland-Lithuania border--and dare NATO to counter-attack. Then NATO will need to control the Baltic Sea to operate against Russia's flank. 

And if NATO's fights to hold the Baltic States rather than just have a tripwire deterrent force, that could lead to disaster if Russia has full use of Belarus.

Fortunately, with Finland and Sweden in NATO, the alliance can distract Russian power away from the main front. And Russia has its own vulnerable position in Kaliningrad. 

UPDATE: Germany highlights its role in Lithuania in holding off the Russians:

The reinforcement of NATO's eastern flank with German troops in Lithuania would help defend the military alliance against "any aggression," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: The map is from NATO.

The Winter War of 2022 Pays No Attention to That Man Behind the Curtain

I have strong doubts that Russia is managing to increase the raw numbers of its troops fighting inside Ukraine to continue its grinding offensive as long as it takes. Does Putin have a Potemkin Invasion Force? Would he even know he only has that?

The Russians are demanding even more territory from Ukraine. And Russia appointed a new commander for Russian ground forces who is known for expending men and materiel to grind forward with small but regular gains:

Mordvichev is one of the few Russian commanders to have achieved tactical penetrations of the Ukrainian line in the last two years and one of Russia’s most celebrated commanders at the moment, but these limited tactical penetrations have come at great costs.

This is brave talk for a Russian army bleeding out in Ukraine and only slowly moving forward. Despite heavy Russian losses:

The Russian military is reportedly generating enough forces to replace losses and is reinforcing the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine despite experiencing an increased casualty rate per square kilometer gained. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be embracing significant losses in exchange for diminishing returns to make battlefield gains and manage perceptions about Russia’s military capabilities to pressure Ukraine in negotiations. 

Is Russia's force in Ukraine really growing? The Russians can't have that many troops to spare across their vast country. So the Russians could be lying. If it is perception that Russia is managing about their capabilities, why wouldn't the Russians lie?

Even if the number top leadership uses is "accurate," the Russians could be counting all troops present during a troop rotation. Or they could have moved support troops formerly across the border in Russia into Ukraine. They could count para-military forces not previously counted. Maybe soldiers inside Russia but fighting on the border are counted as troops in Ukraine. FFS, Russia sent in a high-profile ceremonial infantry regiment, as I noted in an update to this post.

Honestly, the Russians might not know how many troops they have. Would Russian commanders in Ukraine accurately report troop levels after desertion and casualties? Or keep them on the rolls for their pay and supply allocations, pocketing the profit; all while telling themselves the comforting lie that the MIA are just taking a rest and will soon be back to defending Holy Mother Russia against Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself?

And no disrespect to the Ukrainians who I want to win this war, but they have no incentive to minimize the size of the threat they face. Western efforts to arm and support them could slack off as a result of concluding the threat to Ukraine is lower. 

I just don't believe Russian claims that it is relentlessly building a great and all-powerful juggernaut to crush all who dare stand before it.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: "Vietnam Discredited the Domino Theory?"

In case you missed it on Substack: "Will Loitering Munitions Dominate Land Warfare?"

In case you missed it on Substack: "The Backbone of NATO Defense is Broken"

In case you missed it on Substack: "Ground Drones are Certainly Trendy"

Cheaper drone defenses emerge, including one 12.7mm model that can be set on "free-fire zone" mode. Will small drones be as effective when they aren't operating in a counter-measures vacuum?

HIMARS with cluster munitions used in Ukraine shows why bans on their use are a peacetime luxury. 

The modern equivalent of foraging in enemy territory to sustain your army.

The client state's client: "North Korea’s decision to send troops and weapons to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is part of a 'sacred mission' to counter U.S. influence around the world, according to state-run media." Well, not the only mission. 

I rarely discuss state defense forces, but they are a force option--if of mixed quality. Making them a homeland defense option rather than a uniformed country club will take money.

Is it impossible to change course on the Constellation FFG's path to FFS? 

Hamas said it would release the last living American hostage still held by Hamas. That certainly clears the deck of American objections to an Israeli ground campaign.

India's navy deployed to deter Pakistan. Did the threat of Indian naval action deter Pakistan from escalating on the ground? 

What's a nice missile like you doing in a joint like this?

Europe: "NATO’s top military officer said he has no indication yet that the United States will withdraw forces committed to the alliance’s defense plans and shift them to the Indo-Pacific." To be fair, America already deeply slashed its forces committed to NATO.

What America can send quickly. 

Britain's Raven FrankenSAM system in Ukraine.

Putin's demand that a ceasefire address the "root causes" of the Winter War of 2022 would involve Putin dangling by his heels from a lamppost. 

This pro-EU essay should be in the encyclopedia illustrating the concept of exploiting a faux crisis for your own gain. The plan continues.

Russia is no longer a world power. Well, sure. But that just means Russia's reach across its land border is limited--not that it can't inflict harm beyond its vast land border within its limited reach.

Will May 18th ratify Romania as a democracy? Or will democracy be like a train ride with the victor getting off after winning the last free vote? I hope the system of democracy there is strong enough to endure even the "wrong" popular choice.

Commander Salamander has no idea what the acting CNO's PowerPoint Presentation is talking about.

I read that Trump isn't sending military aid to Ukraine. But Biden rushed to fill the pipeline before he left office. And Trump didn't object in the transition or halt it once president. I suspect Trump counted on Ukraine having enough while being able to woo Putin with meaningless lack of new aid announcements.

Is North Korea's artillery aid (systems and ammo) too little help and too late? 

Advocating microwave weapons to defend against drone swarms. Sure, I think these would be great. But as I argued in Army magazine, the main problem with ground-based defenses is that they can distract the tip of the spear.

Sh*t got real in Ras Isa, Hodeidah, and Salif.

Exploring Yorktown 3.1 miles under the sea.

Poland ordered a Russian consulate closed after finding Russia was behind the arson destruction of a Warsaw shopping center. Russia wages war on the West.

In the Mediterranean, "British and Italian carriers lead massive NATO fleet[.]" This is why I've long believed Russia's flotilla in that sea will lead a short but exciting life in a war.

I want DOGE to save money in the Pentagon. A huge defense bureaucracy is no less wasteful than civilian bureaucracies. I've long prioritized including defense spending--within limits--in efforts to tame our budget deficit. Without a solid foundation, we can't afford the defense we need.

A call to include the top Marine in a FOGO decimation. Not going to say that's wrong. Since 2021, I've been on board for a FOGO decimation. Just who's the zombie in the Marine Corps Force Design debate? 

While the newly deployed long-range AIM-174B fighter-carried missile is also a long-range air-to-air missile, terminal phase ballistic missile defense, and anti-ship weapon, I suspect its highest value is shooting down Iranian or North Korean nuclear ballistic missiles during their boost phase.

I don't believe the Berlin Airlift is any type of model for sustaining Taiwan. West Berlin had only 2 million people, was only under land route closure--not legally speaking a "blockade", and close to sources of supply.

If Trump is "driving Europe into China's embrace" that says nothing about America and everything about "Europe"--validating  JD Vance's concerns.

Saudi Arabia has been brought back inside the American security tent after the Saudis flirted with China. 

Out of my lane here, but I've long complained that the expression "Don't make a federal case out if this!" no longer makes sense given the massive growth of federal crimes. I think that is bad. Well, there's some roll back. Although until it is in statute it's potentially temporary. Tip to Instapundit.

Libyans--14 years after the civil war broke out--continue to work out their problems without the so-called damaging impact of American troop presence. 

To be fair, Iran's nutball mullahs really, really want nuclear weapons: "Iran’s refusal to accept US demands for zero uranium enrichment and the complete dismantlement of its nuclear program could stall US-Iran nuclear negotiations."

The strike killed 28 "people"--which means civilians or terrorists? "The Israeli military said it had conducted a 'precise strike' on 'Hamas terrorists in a command and control centre' which it claimed was beneath the hospital." Also, if the claim is correct, Hamas is 100% responsible for civilian casualties. 

Well: "Iran is preparing for a potential escalation with the United States by positioning military assets on key islands in the Persian Gulf[.]" I hope Force Design Marines can still carry out this mission. 

The Army's 25th Infantry Division (light) will exercise in the Philippines "involving a massive movement of troops and equipment" during the exercise.

The Army is practicing troops movements through new access at the Greek port of Kavala. Greece is Plan B in the eastern Mediterranean. 

The Army is shutting down two SFABs--one active and one National Guard--leaving four to train allies for conventional warfare. 

America will sell Saudi Arabia a sh*tload of armaments. If the F-35 is included--I don't think it should be--it should absolutely be a downgraded version.

I'm skeptical that the HTS Islamists who run Syria are willing play nice--or control their jihadis within Syria who aren't willing to pretend to be tame. On the other hand, we aren't about to invade Syria. Perhaps the horse will sing. Not literally, of course. I hope the Saudis know what they're doing.

Soldiers are testing the simulated XM30 Bradley replacement to refine its design. 

An American F-35 purportedly had to maneuver to evade a Houthi SAM. Another story. It isn't clear to me if the missile was even close to locking on.

Do. Not. Trust. China: "U.S. energy officials are reassessing the risk posed by Chinese-made devices that play a critical role in renewable energy infrastructure after unexplained communication equipment was found inside some of them[.]" As if green infrastructure isn't damaging enough! Tip to Instapundit. 

Russia beats its chest and flings aerial poo to hide its military weakness exposed in Ukraine.

Japan is expanding its long-range missile capabilities. And so China discovers cause and effect.

The Coast Guard has shifted a planned deployment to INDOPACOM to reinforce the southern border protection mission. 

After being focused on Japan and South Korea for so long, the Army is scrambling to improve logistics across INDOPACOM.

WTAF? Ah, Fort Leonard Wood. Good times. Good times.

The INDOPACOM commander praised the Army Multi-domain Task Force as "the 'centerpiece' of how the joint force denies Chinese military access to key areas[.]" Well it's nice the Army is the best Navy asset out there--sorry Marines. Say, who does Army stuff?

Putting the targeting gold into Golden Dome. 

The Air Force wants much greater range for the F-47 to cope with INDOPACOM distances. What's the under-and-over on whether the F-47 is deployed before China is no longer the pacing threat?

To wage a big naval war, the Navy would like more but cheaper missiles lacking the gold plating of high-end missiles, but which could be produced by non-traditional defense contractors.

To preserve its ability to earn up to $10 billion per year from Suez Canal users, Egypt will contribute troops to a Somalia peacekeeping force. There's still the problem of the Houthi, of course. Also, Egypt concurrently helps with another of their problems.

Watching the first major conventional war in Europe since World War II chew through men and materiel at horrifying rates--has Russia lost a half million dead?--Europeans are looking at conscription again. 

Germany says it will build the strongest "conventional" army in Europe. That modifier is odd, no? As opposed to the strongest "typist" army? I don't assume this is the final answer to the German Question. As an aside, I would never ever rely on the Global Firepower Index as a measure of real military power.

South Korea is again thinking about an aircraft carrier. Because of North Korea. Sure, "North Korea." That's the ticket! 

The 101st Airborne Division will be the first unit to get the new long-range air assault aircraft because it "makes sense." I don't see the sense, honestly. Unless this is for island hopping in the western Pacific because Force Design Marines can't do it.

Defending the survivability of the aircraft carrier. Arguments against the carrier have absolutely not been repeatedly refuted over the years because advocates and critics argue past each other. If it floats it can sink. And a mission kill is good enough. I'm not optimistic on survivability in a network-centric world.

Europeans would need time to defend Europe without American military power. I'd like to think America won't do that because of the major drawback of encouraging too much European rearmament. 

Latvia warns how to distinguish between lost tourists or hikers and Russian recon and sabotage groups. 

The FBI carried out a sting operation that nabbed a National Guard member plotting to attack the Army Tank-Automotive and Armaments Command in southeast Michigan for ISIL. While police stings can stray into entrapment, they do suppress urges to convert intent into murder.

Trump's opening to Syria is only a gamble if you assume there is some chance the HTS Islamists won't just pretend to be nice long enough to resume the jihad. I'll praise him if this works. but I'm betting the scorpion stings the frog. Still, Russia won't get their bases back, for now.

Kashmir is the new rallying cry for jihadis. That's unfortunate for India--and for Palestinians who lost their crown. 

Alaska is important for the U.S.-Japan alliance. Not to mention being the front line with Russia at the Bering Strait.

Resistance: "The U.S. will upgrade a Philippine military base crucial for Manila’s South China Sea operations[.]" Specifically mentioned are resupply missions to outposts under siege by China. Interesting.

Japan, the Philippines, and Australia seek to use army assets to contain China. And then ... ?

Sometimes I think this Army initiative is a budget trick to get capabilities it doesn't trust the other services to prioritize for the Army: "Drones that can fly long distances in stormy Pacific weather are at the top of the wishlist for the 3rd Multi-Domain Task Force[.]"

DHS wants 20,000 National Guard troops to help with immigration enforcement. The intended role is unclear. This is totally within the Guard's mission set, notwithstanding protests.

Iran's air defense around its "most crucial" nuclear site is allegedly "brittle". 

Amidst claims of shooting down the other side's planes, only Pakistan's shooting down of an Indian Rafale with a long-range Chinese missile seems confirmed. This long-range duel was no dogfight, seemingly validating the F-35 operating concept.

Is Trump going to help close a deal to end the long, simmering Western Sahara conflict? In some sense this may just be jumping in at the head of the existing parade. But his role may give it credibility to last.

While it would be good if Egypt's recent joint air exercise didn't give China experience flying against F-16s (which Taiwan relies on), I'm not worried that Egypt will flip to China given closer U.S.-Saudi ties and given that Egypt a half century after flipping to the U.S. is still shifting from Soviet to Western arms.

Canada is alienating Alberta and Saskatchewan. But Ottawa would rather pretend the Bad Orange Man wants to invade Canada. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukrainian FOG drone countermeasure system traces fiber optic cable back to the source so the Russian drone operator can be killed. Damn, I'm good. 

How much does China spend on defense? "Adjusting for PPP Chinese defense spending goes from a quarter of what America spends to over 70 percent." I'd like to know what their ammo and spare parts situation is. And their training. And leadership. That costs money, too.

Who will win the Romanian election? I want to know if the EU will allow the winner to take office. 

This writer assumes lots of infiltrators and equipment in shipping containers prior to H-Hour for a four-day conquest of Taiwan. I think little of the Crimea 2014 template. I assume far fewer infiltrators in my back-of-the-envelope calculation for China throwing an army across the strait. I don't assume China wins.

Could China demoralize Taiwan and convince its elites to simply surrender and invite China in? I have my doubts about such cheap, non-war scenarios. 

Russia and China "operationalize" their strategic partnership? The only thing being operationalized is Russia's vassal status under China. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

I wonder if Ukraine has built a strategic reserve since the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive. Also, "it appears that the Russian offensive operations will not only collapse but that the Russian occupation forces in Crimea and eastern Ukraine are so thin that Ukrainian forces could regain these lost territories." Hmm.

Hypothetical scenario: "Beijing intends to escalate to conflict, and the crews onboard the C-17s are not aware of the screen of small, one-way attack drones loitering near the airfield where they intend to land, just outside its protected ring and directly in the aircrafts’ flight path." Ahem. 

Israel continues to hit the Houthi.

Maneuvering among Turkey, Syria factions, Iraq factions, and Iran continues.

Can talks stop nukes? "Iran and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) met in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 16 to discuss the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and snapback sanctions." More to the point, I doubt "snapback" sanctions are permissible. Russia and China will certainly object.

Israel knocked down a Houthi missile even as Israel began an offensive into Gaza. Civilian casualties are tragic and sad. Hamas could end the civilian deaths by surrendering. Or greatly reduce them by having their fighters wear uniforms and not hide behind civilians. 

Is China on to something with artillery rockets that turn into precision gliders to take out aerial targets?

This post on the North Korean cyber threat left me more confused. How much of that threat is actually North Korean? The situation has long perplexed me.

Women in the military, including Ukraine's and Russia's.