Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Every Analogy is Bad for Belarus

Belarus has a Russia problem:

On February 3 Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko launched the fiercest of his rhetorical attacks against Russia—a country that has been financially underpinning Lukashenko’s regime. Despite the audacious comments of the Belarusian leader, there is little chance that his words will convince Moscow to continue providing support to his country with few strings attached. The status quo will likely be extended, which means there will constantly be a diminishing value for Russia. Thus, Lukashenko’s options are few. Either he fully participates in Russia’s integration initiatives, or he sees his power collapsing. At this point, Moscow does not even have to make dramatic moves to rein in Lukashenko, since time is working against the Belarusian president.

The author says that Belarus can't afford to be the new Ukraine, a target of Russian territorial aggression.

But it is worse than that. Ukraine is at least still sovereign despite losing some of their territory in the Donbas and Crimea to Russia.

Belarus could become the new Belgium--a road conquered on the way to the real objective.

Or perhaps just the new Austria.

Either way, the result would be a new iron curtain.

Poor Belarus. So far from God, and so close to Russia.