The spiraling conflict between the neighbors has reached such a level that some analysts have talked about Russia possibly staging a "palace coup" against Lukashenko. Visibly nervous about Russia's intentions, the Belarusian leader recently assured his nation of 10 million people that "there will be no war" between the two countries.
Lukashenko has sought to present Belarus as an indispensable partner for Russia and a bulwark against NATO. At the same time, he has periodically made overtures to the West, masterfully exploiting Moscow's fear of losing a crucial ally to win more financial aid.
As I've noted, Belarus might be the most important territory in Europe today.
In Russian hands, Belarus becomes a Russian launching pad to make the defense of the Suwalki Gap the new Fulda Gap flash point.
At that point we will have no choice but to admit that we really need armored cavalry again.